Langton Capital – 2020-01-02 – Tasty, private companies, 2020 trends etc.:
Tasty, private companies, 2020 trends etc.:
A DAY IN THE LIFE:
This is a shortened email. Happy New Year to all. Back to work properly on Monday but let’s for now move onto the rather thin news:
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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:
• Lots of private companies reporting numbers to Companies’ House. Companies have nine months to report & that means, unsurprisingly, there were a flood of (mostly March year-end) numbers reported in the dying days of December.
• Numbers out, which deserve to be covered more fully next week, include those from Hawthorn Leisure, Junkyard Golf, Vagabond Wines, Oakman Inns, New World Trading, Pie Minister, Rosa’s Thai & Drake & Morgan amongst others. Jamie’s Italian has lodged its Administrator’s Proposals. More from Monday.
• Tasty has updated on trading saying that it is ‘pleased to announce that fourth quarter sales to date remain in line with management’s expectations and, with the continued assistance of landlords, the Board remains confident that current market forecasts for the year ended 31 December 2019 will be achieved.’
• The company says that it has exchanged contracts to sell its dim t More London site ‘for a gross cash consideration of £2 million.’ The company says ‘this disposal is in line with the Company’s strategy of reducing exposure where it is experiencing increasing property and labour costs and strengthening the Company’s balance sheet.’ It points out that ‘the More London restaurant produced an EBITDA of £106,000 for the year ended 31 December 2018 and had a net book value of £878,000 as at 30 June 2019.’
• Tasty says ‘the sale proceeds, net of associated costs, are expected to amount to approximately £1.95 million and will be applied towards paying off the Company’s remaining bank debt, and to fund the Group’s working capital and selected restaurant refurbishment plans. A further announcement will be made on completion of the sale.’
• CGA has suggested a number of trends will either be maintained from 2019 or make themselves newly apparent in the current year.
• It says restaurants will continue to churn but confidence should edge up. it says customers will drink less but pay more. Sustainability will continue to be a consideration across some customers with plant-based foods growing in popularity. Experiential offers will provide growth as will sales of gin & rum. It suggests that food prices could remain volatile.
• Drinkaware has said that Dry January could be a bigger deal this year as ‘two-thirds (66%) of midlife drinkers – aged 45 to 64 – have drunk, or would try, lower strength alcoholic drinks – an increase of 15 per cent in just two years.’
• Drinkaware says ‘midlife drinkers often get bad press when it comes to their drinking habits, but this new research tells us that a growing number of men and women in this age group are willing to embrace alternatives.’ It cautions ‘people in their 40s, 50s and 60s are most at risk of alcohol-related health harms because they tend to drink more regularly and above the recommended guidelines.’
• The CMA is to launch a phase two investigation into Amazon’s c$500m investment in Deliveroo as neither Amazon nor Deliveroo has offered undertakings that would make an investigation unnecessary.
• The FT has reported that changes in consumer tastes and an increase in taxes has resulted in a reduction in fizzy wines sales in the UK for the first time in five years. The number of bottles of sparkling wine sold in the UK in the last 12 months is down 5% on the 147m bottles sold in 2018.
• The national living wage will be increased by 6.2% in what the government has described as ‘the biggest cash increase ever’.
• UKHospitality has called on the government to cut business taxes in order to support the increase in wages brought about by the increase of the NLW. Kate Nicholls, CEO of the association commented: ‘Hospitality operators absolutely want to reward the great work of their staff. In order to make that growth sustainable, other measures are needed to mitigate cost growth’.
• Springboard reports footfall fell 8.6% YoY on Boxing Day, saying the public holiday was becoming less important as a trading day.
• The Telegraph suggests ‘retailers are bracing for another brutal January after fewer shoppers visited stores in the run-up to Christmas.’ It says ‘a number of mid-market retailers, which have been around for 20 to 30 years and have been losing their appeal with shoppers, are the most exposed. They include clothing and footwear retailers, department stores and shopping centres.’ Companies will begin updating on Christmas trading as soon as tomorrow.
HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:
• Per STR, London continues to lead European hotel supply growth with 8,465 rooms expected to open in 2020. Dublin is also set to see supply boom, with 3,232 rooms expected in the year.
• STR reports US hotel occupancy up 5.9% yoy to 50.1% for the week ending 21 December, with ADR up 1.8% to $108.96 and RevPAR up 7.8% to $54.55.
• A Which? poll has rated New Orleans as the best long-haul city in the World, with Las Vegas rated as the worst. New Orleans achieved a score of 90% based on a range of categories including quality of cultural attractions, accommodation, shopping, food, value for money and how crowded it is.
• A study undertaken on behalf of BBC Radio Four’s You and Yours programme has suggested that ‘confidence in the package holiday market remains resilient despite the collapse of Thomas Cook.’
• The study says that nearly two-thirds of consumers were still happy to book a package holiday, despite the recent high profile collapse.
• Rail prices across the UK rise by an average of 2.7% from today.
• Mooky Greidinger, the CEO of Cineworld, has accused Netflix of leaving Martin Scorsese’s film The Irishman with “meaningless” box office income after it streamed the film only a short while after it was released to cinemas.
FINANCE & ECONOMICS:
• Sterling higher over the Christmas period at $1.3214 and €1.1792. Oil lower at $66.22. UK 10yr gilt yield up at 0.82%. World markets mixed with Far East higher in Thursday trade.
• Politics & Brexit:
o PM Boris Johnson has said that ‘we’ll waste no time in finishing the job’ of Brexit once MPs get back to work. Mr Johnson is currently on holiday in Mustique.
o The FT reports that its poll of ‘more than 85 leading economists’ has suggested that ‘there would be little or no improvement in economic growth this year as chronically weak productivity persists and Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU remains unknown.’
START THE DAY WITH A SONG:
Today who sang:
Though I’m past one hundred thousand miles,
I’m feeling very still
And I think my spaceship knows what I must do
And I think my life on Earth is nearly through
RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:
Nick is back tomorrow.
TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:
Upcoming results are set out below:
• 16 Dec 19 Fulham Shore H1 numbers
• 16 Dec 19 Fuller’s H1 numbers
• 19 Dec 19 Bank of England MPC interest rate decision
• 8 Jan 20 Gregg’s FY & Xmas update
• 9 Jan 20 Nichols full year update
• Early Jan 20 Xmas statements (in the order presented last year) – Stonegate, Morrison’s, Naked Wines, Sainsbury, Constellation Brands, C&C, Brighton Pier, Everyman, M&B, M&S, Tesco.
• 14 Jan 20 Games Workshop H1 numbers
• 17 Jan 20 Gym Group FY update
• Mid Jan 20 Xmas statements (in the order presented last year) – Revolution Bars, Games Workshop, Cineworld, City Pub Group, Saga, DP Eurasia, Whitbread, Ten Entertainment, Premier Foods, SSP, EasyHotel, William Hill.
• Late Jan 20 Xmas statements (in the order presented last year) – JD Wetherspoon, Hotel Chocolat, Restaurant Group, Starbucks, Fevertree, AG Barr, Fullers, DPP, Domino’s, Hollywood Bowl, Britvic, Rank, Diageo.
• 23 Jan 20 G4M Q3 update
• 24 Jan 20 Marston’s Q1 trading update
• 29-31 Jan 20 – Springboard charity Snow White pantomime at Leicester Sq. Theatre
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