Langton Capital – 2021-03-15 – Lost trade, shop closures, festivals, outbound travel etc.:
Lost trade, shop closures, festivals, outbound travel etc.:
A DAY IN THE LIFE:
Right, it’s Monday.
That’s the bad news but, on the other hand, the Mighty Hull City won again on Saturday (top of the league, don’t ask which one, and five straight wins on the trot) and we’ve got our boiler working again which, though we were saving money because we were able to turn the fridge off, is something of a relief.
Because, we can assure you, nostalgia is overrated when it comes to heating just one room in the house, washing your hair in cold water and ferrying kettles up to the bathroom to get a shave.
Anyway, here’s a couple of questions for you (answers just below Advertise With Us below):
c) Are there more mammals or birds in the world? Doubtful that anyone’s ever counted them but there are, allegedly, 400bn of the one and 180bn of the other, but which is which?
d) Which country has the largest number of bird species? Think ‘most varied geography’ and then see below:
On to the news:
ADVERTISE WITH US:
Langton’s free email now carries adverts. See front page of website for today’s copy & contact us for further details.
Mammals or birds. There are, apparently, more than twice as many birds in the world as there are mammals. Mammals are more secretive, less visible, but also less numerous. NB – we’re not sure whether this includes domestic animals, in which case chickens will have swung the scales.
Diverse Fauna. Colombia, we’re told, has the largest number of bird species in the world, at around 1,878. The country has a coastline, jungles & mountains. It doesn’t have deserts or icebergs but, come to think of it, there would be no birds there if it did.
Interestingly, six of the top seven most populous countries for bird species are in the northern half of South America – see https://rainforests.mongabay.com/03birds.htm
CHANGED EMAIL FORMAT:
The Premium Email is unchanged. The Free Email is now written and pre-sent the evening before. It should include much of the news but not any breaking stories from the morning that it is sent such as company releases, nor Langton comment. See Twitter for in-day comment.
Let us know if you would like an example of the Premium Email.
Prices are £295 for one subscription, £495 for multiple, both plus VAT). Or sign up for easy in, easy out month option:
PUBS & RESTAURANTS:
Covid-pandemic news & developments:
• The British Beer & Pub Association reports that ‘pubs will miss out on 12 million in sales of pints and 3.6 million in sales of meals due to the ongoing restrictions covering this Mother’s Day.’
• Garden centres may have been busy but ‘pubs across the UK will remain closed and unable to serve takeaway beer on Mothering Sunday’ says the BBPA. It adds that this is the second Mothers’ Day that has been impacted by Covid.
• Some £83 million worth of sales may be lost. The BBPA says ‘as ever, our locals are still doing all they can to serve their communities despite the lockdown, safely. This has seen pubs innovate and create ‘makeaways’, cooking kits and more traditional takeaways. Although it isn’t quite the same as being in the pub, it is the next best thing.’
• The Daily Mail reports that a legal challenge over Boris Johnson’s decision not to allow pubs to reopen fully in April is being planned. It says ‘hospitality trade leaders announced they were going to court over the ‘plainly irrational’ decision to restrict pubs and cafes to outdoor opening only from April 12 while allowing non-essential shops to reopen to customers.’
• The paper says ‘Hugh Osmond, founder of Punch Taverns, and Sacha Lord, night-time economy adviser for Greater Manchester, claimed the risk of Covid transmission was actually higher in shops than in pubs.’ Mr Osmond says that ‘time is of the essence’ for the sector and warned that ‘the cost of lockdown to the hospitality industry is £200 million a day’.
• Osmond says ‘this legal case will give a fighting chance to over three million people who work in hospitality and to the tens of thousands of businesses, suppliers, landlords and contractors large and small forced into bankruptcy.’
• The High Street:
• PwC reports that the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has yet to be felt on the High Street. The Local Data Company says that a net 9,877 outlets closed across the country last year (the net of 17,352 closures and 7,665 openings).
• PwC says the picture is could get worse before it gets better – if it ever does get better. PwC says ‘unfortunately, there is still quite a lot to play out. You’ve seen the closures of the likes of Debenhams and Topshop and that’s happening in 2021 so they’re not even in our numbers.’
• The LDC says ‘much of the impact is a reflection of things that happened before the pandemic. This was not just the move online but areas such as legislative changes, for example for betting shops, consolidation due to overexpansion, or chain-wide closures for restaurants and mobile phone stores that found themselves in trouble pre-Covid-19.’
• Langton comment, see premium email.
• Licensing solicitor Poppleston Allen reports that Oxford City Council has made the decision to remove its existing Cumulative Impact Policy as part of its Recent Statement of Licensing Policy Review.
• CGA reports that major festivals are selling out and consumers look to be increasingly confident about planning their summers. It says 63% of consumers surveyed said ‘they were likely to splash out on festivals and live events to make up for missing out in 2020, while nine in ten were either very likely (77%) or likely (14%) to rebook for festivals that had to be cancelled last year.’
• CGA says only 9% of festival-goers would stay away from the market in 2021 due to safety concerns. CGA says its ‘research shows a major pent-up demand for hospitality among consumers, and this is clearly extending to festivals.
• Drinks Business reports the ‘biggest players’ in the UK champagne market, including Moet Hennessy, as saying that sales over Christmas and for Valentine’s Day were ‘incredible’. Referring to last year, Moet said ‘the Christmas period accounted for 46% of annual Champagne sales in the off-trade and in fact Champagne grew the fastest out of all beers, wines and spirits, growing at 28% year-on-year.’
• A team of volunteers from Zonal have teamed up with charity, Only A Pavement Away, to help pack 309 backpacks, filled with warm clothing, sleeping bags, toiletries and flasks, to help rough sleepers in Edinburgh.
• A bit dry but The Bank of England conducted interviews about people’s inflationary expectations between 9 and 22 Feb. It says consumers believed the current rate of inflation was 2.5% and they thought it would rise to 2.7% over the next 12mths. Both numbers unchanged from November 2020.
• Consumers believe higher inflation will weaken the economy. Some 35% believe interest rates will rise (up only slightly from 33% in November). These aren’t necessarily questions where the consumer is well placed to answer although the individual’s own expectations should impact his or her own behaviour.
• Molson Coors has fallen victim to a cyber attack that is reported to have disrupted its systems. Molson Coors says it ‘is working around the clock to get its systems back up as quickly as possible.’ It adds ‘although the company is actively managing this cyber security incident, it has caused and may continue to cause a delay or disruption to parts of the company’s business, including its brewery operations, production and shipments.’
• Sheffield-based hospitality technology company Airship has won three awards at the UK Developer Awards 2021 – including the prestigious Dev Team of the Year accolade.
HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:
Staycations or flight-inclusive travel this summer?
• IPK International has said it believes outbound travel will rebound quickly this year. It says 62% of would-be travellers want to go abroad in 2021. IPK reports ‘above-average interest in visiting friends and family.’
• See premium email for discussion on Cabin Fever, Talk is Cheap and The Silver Lining (staycations).
• The desire to travel (provided it is safe, convenient and not too expensive) is no doubt there. Addressing the last of these points, speakers at the Path to Revival webinar hosted by the Pacific Asia Travel Association heard that a rebound it trade driven by discounting would be a ‘terrible move’.
• Travel Weekly reports that ‘booking volumes for the peak summer holiday period are starting to pick up as destinations prepare to welcome back British tourists.’ Agents have reported that the majority of bookings are still for later in the year or even for 2022. Advantage Travel Partnership says the bounce is due to the ‘announcements from various destinations wanting to welcome British travellers back this summer, combined with the UK’s vaccination rollout and the plan for lockdown restrictions to ease’.
• Crystal Cruises has announced that it will restart ocean sailings from the Bahamas from 3 July for fully vaccinated passengers. Crystal says ‘we can offer these cruises with mutual confidence, thanks to the meticulous planning and health and safety protocols that both Crystal Cruises and the Bahamas have put in place.’
• Too late for some operators. Coastal cruise specialist, Strand Travel, is reported to have ceased trading.
• CLIA has said that, as it takes 12wks to get a cruise ship back into service after a 12mth layup, it will not be possible for domestic cruises to take place from 17 May unless operators ‘take a bet’ on everything going to plan. Some operators maintain that they would need ‘just’ 8wks’ notice.
Other leisure travel news:
• STR reports that US hotel occupancy in the week to 6 March was 49%, down some 21% on last year. Room rates are down 22% and REVPAR is some 38% lower. STR says ‘while demand has improved in in many states, most markets remain deep in recessionary territory when indexed to 2019 levels. Year-over-year comparisons with 2020 are beginning to turn favourable as the country hits the one-year anniversary of its earliest pandemic restrictions.’
• Some 2,500 jobs are reportedly at risk if Virgin Active is not able to agree a restructuring of its liabilities with its creditors. Sky reports the company is drawing up contingency plans to appoint administrators by early June if it is unable to agree lenders and landlords to support its restructuring plan.
• Here East, based in East London, aims to become a “world-class” destination for esports businesses.
FINANCE & MARKETS:
• The ONS reported on Friday that the contraction of the UK economy in January was less than had been feared. The economy shrank by 4.9% m-o-m to leave it some 9% smaller than it had been in January 2020.
• The NIESR now expects a contraction of 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2021. This would leave GDP in the first quarter of 2021 also around 9 per cent lower than its level in the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic struck.
• The NIESR says ‘while January’s lockdown has unsurprisingly hit the hospitality, retail and education sectors, returning to levels of output last seen in summer 2020, many other sectors have not been affected to anything like the same extent as they were last year.’
• Exports to the EU fell by 40% in January. Imports from the trading bloc fell by 28.8%. The ONS reports that numbers were picking up towards the end of the month. The overall trade deficit in the month fell. The UK is to continue waving through imports from the EU as the c30k customs agents needed to check forms have not yet been recruited.
• Lead indicators: The ONS reports that the volume of motor vehicle traffic grew by +4p in the week to 77% of the level 12 months previously. The proportion of the UK workforce on furlough remained unchanged at 19%.
RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:
• See premium email.
TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:
Upcoming results are set out below:
• 11 Mar 21 Playtech FY numbers
• 11 Mar 21 Morrison’s FY numbers
• 15 Mar 21 Carlsberg AGM
• 16 Mar 21 Gregg’s FY numbers
• 16 Mar 21 C&C pre-close trading update
• 17 Mar 21 Hostelworld H1 numbers
• 18 Mar 21 Fever Tree FY numbers
• 18 Mar 21 Gym Group FY numbers
• 19 Mar 21 JD Wetherspoon H1 numbers
• 19 Mar 21 GfK UK Consumer Confidence numbers
• 23 Mar 21 DP Eurasia FY numbers
• 24 Mar 21 M&B AGM
• 25 Mar 21 Compass Group H1 update
• 25 Mar 21 TUI AGM
• 29 Mar 21 Ten Entertainment FY numbers
• 30 Mar 21 AG Barr FY numbers
• 31 Mar 21 Various Eateries AGM
• 7 Apr 21 Saga FY numbers
• 8 Apr 21 Sportech FY numbers
• 8 Apr 21 Constellation Brands FY numbers
• Est. 9 Apr 21 Barclaycard Consumer Spending (March)
• 13 Apr 21 Just Eat Q1 numbers
• 15 Apr 21 Pepsi Q1 numbers
• 22 Apr 21 Domino’s Pizza PLC AGM
• 23 Apr 21 Gear4Music results
• 28 Apr 21 Carlsberg Q1 numbers
• 4 May 21 Campari Q1 numbers
• 7 May 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q1 numbers
• Est 9 May 21 Barclaycard Consumer Spending (Apr)
• 12 May 21 Compass Group H1 numbers
• 12 May 21 Stock Spirits H1 numbers
• 12 May 21 TUI H1 numbers
• 18 May 21 Britvic H1 numbers
• Est 19 May 21 Marston’s H1 numbers
• 27 Jul 21 Campari H1 numbers
• 10 Aug 21 Intercontinental Hotels H1 numbers
• 12 Aug 21 TUI Q3 numbers
• 18 Aug 21 Carlsberg H1 numbers
• 22 Oct 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q3 numbers
• 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers
• 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers
LANGTON CAPITAL: Made in Hull. Like all the best things. Langton Capital is a financial advisory company providing insightful views on the UK and global leisure industry and the wider consumer sector in general. Subscription to the daily email is free. Unsubscribing is painless. We provide daily off the shelf and bespoke research. We have helped with transactions, fund-raisings, disposals and other corporate issues. We have a good ear, we are impartial, independent and not half bad at what we do. If you think that we could help you or your business, drop us a line.