Langton Capital – 2021-07-15 – Just Eat, rents, 19 July, inflation, Wales, BrewDog, amber list etc.:
Just Eat, rents, 19 July, inflation, Wales, BrewDog, amber list etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: The word (or two words) dog-whistle seem to have gained traction in recent years and, assuming that they only applied to lazy, click-bait-type headlines that get the blood rushing on sensitive political issues, I obviously thought myself immune. However, that’s just rubbish, of course. Exceptionalism is usually a myth because my buttons get pressed just like everyone else’s and, when I realised that the pings and bleeps coming from my phone as well as those little blue circles on your Twitter icon, the Facebook likes and the green blobs on your WhatsApp etc were also dog-whistles of a sort, my misery was complete. Anyway, before we get the shrill, blowing instrument out and talk about the merits & demerits of taking the knee, cancel culture or English exceptionalism, let’s move on to the news: ADVERTISE WITH US: Langton’s free email now carries adverts. See front page of website for today’s copy & contact us for further details. CHANGED EMAIL FORMAT: The Premium Email is unchanged. The Free Email is written and pre-sent the evening before. It may not include breaking stories nor Langton comment. See Twitter for in-day comment. Let us know if you would like an example of the Premium Email. Prices: £295 for one subscription, £495 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option: PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Trading: • CGA and UKH have produced a report, Future Shock’, in which they have looked at the scale of COVID’s impact on the hospitality sector as well as a number of reasons to be cheerful (tempered with the need for further financial relief). The jointly-penned report concludes ‘the hospitality industry is ready to lead the UK’s post-COVID recovery, but needs sustained support on a range of challenges after a devastating 16 months.’ • Further comment: See premium email. • Separately, UKH was amongst other hospitality and retail bodies that told MPs earlier this week that many operators faced collapse due to debts accrued during the pandemic. Some £6.5bn in unpaid rent bills are being addressed with perhaps a quarter of this in hospitality. The British Property Federation has suggested that hospitality businesses may be facing greater difficulties than retailers. • Clear Sight has looked at recovery potential and prospects and says the National outlook remains divided. It says ‘confidence in the UK Government’s management of the pandemic continues to erode’ with consumers pointing to Matt Hancock. Re business leaders, Clear Sight says ‘54% of decision-makers back the government – down from 60% in May.’ • Further comment: See premium email. • The Welsh Beer & Pub Association has welcomed the announcement that the Welsh Government plans to move to Alert Level Zero, in the process lifting many COVID restrictions, from 7th August. It says ‘the lifting of restrictions will enable more pubs to reopen that have remained shut because they cannot viably operate under current restrictions’ adding ‘after nearly 18 months of forced closure or operating under heavy restrictions, the WBPA has warned that the recovery for brewers and pubs will only begin when restrictions are lifted.’ • Further comment: See premium email. • The British Institute of Innkeeping has surveyed its members and concludes that the legacy of lockdowns ‘threatens the recovery of our nations’ pubs.’ It says the survey ‘results show a clear picture of debts built up over the last 17 months, and rising costs across all areas of their businesses, from staffing to increased costs for utilities, food and drink supplies.’ It finds that 55% of respondents ‘have accrued pandemic specific debts of over £20k per site, with more than 1 in 4 having debts of up to £80k. They will also need considerable time to pay back these debts, with 57% needing more than 2 years and 1 in 2 of those needing more than 5 years to repay debts.’ • Further comment: See premium email. Company & other news: • Just Eat Takeaway has updated on trading for its Q2 to end-June saying that orders were up 61% or up 51% including Grubhub. The company’s CEO, Jitse Groen, says ‘we have combined Just Eat Takeaway.com and Grubhub into one of the largest online food delivery companies in the world. The new combination grew 51% in terms of orders in the first half year. Adjusted EBITDA losses, mainly caused by US and Canadian fee caps and our investment programme, have now peaked. We therefore expect the Company to trend back to profitability going forward while retaining significant growth during the second half of the year.’ • BrewDog is reported to have appointed consultancy firm Wiser to conduct a “full, unbiased review” of its business practises after allegations that the company had a “toxic” working environment with a ‘culture of fear’ pervading the business. • Further comment: See premium email. • The MCA reports that Tortilla is exploring the possibility of an IPO. • Nestle is looking at the ‘cultured meat sector’. A leaked report suggests that it is working with Israeli cell-based start-up Future Meat Technologies. • John Lewis & Waitrose at to cut 1,000 jobs. • British Land reports it has stopped rent concessions to retail tenants at a number of its shopping centres and retail parks. • Food equipment giant Middleby has said it will not increase its offer for rival, Welbilt. • Guidance notes issued after the confirmation yesterday that Freedom Day is to go ahead say that the government “expects and recommends” shoppers to wear face masks when indoors, even if they are not told to by law. The TUC has called the confusing message “a recipe for rising infections”. • Further comment in the premium email on mask-wearing, the labour shortage, reaction of the travel industry to amber list changes & the potential IPO at Pure Gym. HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS: • Transport secretary Grant Shapps has said that holiday destinations Ibiza, Majorca and Menorca are to move back to England’s amber list (from green). The changes will take place at 4am on Monday. Holidaymakers who left to a green destination a week ago will come back and have to isolate if they have not had both jabs. This will add to administrative problems for younger holidaymakers (and their employers) where they had expected to go back to work next week. Bulgaria and Hong Kong have moved to the green list. • Further comment: See premium email. • Wales is to allow fully vaccinated people returning from amber list countries to enter the principality without quarantining from 19 July. The move brings Wales in line with England and Scotland. First minister Mark Drakeford says ‘the pandemic is not over and the virus continues to spread across Wales, which makes it really important for everyone to say yes to vaccination and to do everything we can to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe.’ • Plans for an aparthotel on Glasgow’s Sauchiehall Street have been lodged in the city. FINANCE & MARKETS: • The rate of CPI in the UK rose to 2.5% in the year to June, up from 2.1% in May per the ONS. This represents the highest rate in 3yrs and is above the Bank of England’s target rate of 2.0%. Economists had been looking for around 2.2%. • Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has said equivalence with the EU on services is proving elusive. He says ‘I think it’s fair to say that nothing really has moved forwards.’ This could leave a hole in the Exchequer’s finances. • The ONS reports that house prices in the UK are up 10% in the year to May. Prices in London rose by a more modest 5.2%. SOME OF YESTERDAY TWEETS (WITH INTROS): Confusion? Not necessarily over the rules, because there won’t be any, but over how to respond to freedoms when the strong hint is perhaps that you shouldn’t be taking advantage of them: See premium email. UPCOMING NEWS: This week: • DP Poland updated on Tuesday and it hosted a webinar. Vianet had its AGM & trading update and Pepsi reported on Q2 in the afternoon. • DP Eurasia updated on H1 on Wednesday. Next week is busier. • 19 Jul 21 is ‘freedom’ day – although it’s not called that anymore. Tuesday sees Young & Co host its AGM. Tuesday we have full year numbers from Loungers and H1 figures from Nichols. Wednesday brings Britvic’s Q3 update and Thursday sees Premier Foods host its AGM and update on Q1 trading. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • Further comment: See premium email. TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS: Upcoming results are set out below: • 13 Jul 21 Pepsi Q2 numbers • 13 Jul 21 DP Poland H1 update & presentation • 14 Jul 21 DP Eurasia H1 trading update • 20 Jul 21 Young & Co AGM • 21 Jul 21 Loungers FY numbers • 21 Jul 21 Nichols H1 numbers • 22 Jul 21 Britvic Q3 update • 23 Jul 21 Premier Foods AGM & Q1 update • 27 Jul 21 Campari H1 numbers • 27 Jul 21 Games Workshop FY numbers • 27 Jul 21 Starbucks Q3 numbers • 28 Jul 21 Marston’s Q3 trading update • 29 Jul 21 Molson Coors Q2 numbers • 29 Jul 21 Texas Roadhouse Q2 numbers • 30 Jul 21 DPP AGM • 3 Aug 21 Domino’s Pizza H1 numbers • 5 Aug 21 Bank of England MPC meeting • 10 Aug 21 Intercontinental Hotels H1 numbers • 11 Aug 21 Deliveroo H1 numbers • 11 Aug 21 Hostelworld H1 numbers • 12 Aug 21 TUI Q3 numbers • 18 Aug 21 Carlsberg H1 numbers • 19 Aug 21 Rank FY numbers • 2 Sept 21 Jet2 AGM • 22 Sept 21 Ten Entertainment H1 numbers • 1 Oct 21 JW Wetherspoon • 22 Oct 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q3 numbers • 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers • 24 Nov 21 Britvic FY numbers • 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers LANGTON CAPITAL: Made in Hull. Like all the best things. Langton Capital is a financial advisory company providing insightful views on the UK and global leisure industry and the wider consumer sector in general. Subscription to the daily email is free. Unsubscribing is painless. We provide daily off the shelf and bespoke research. We have helped with transactions, fund-raisings, disposals and other corporate issues. We have a good ear, we are impartial, independent and not half bad at what we do. If you think that we could help you or your business, drop us a line. |
|