Labour, inflation, Brighton Pier, BOWL, red list & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I don’t know who thought it was a good idea to put those peel back lids on sardine cans as they have a tendency to twang back on you and spatter tomatoey fish paste on your shirt or trousers.

And there’s nothing good that can be said about an accident like that other than better do it on a Thursday or Friday rather than a Monday if you’re staying away from home.

Anyway, we’re dragging our sorry selves towards the end of what has been a busy and, for the stock market at least, a rather torrid week. Just remains to say have a good weekend and on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Access to labour. The Institute of Directors has suggested that around 30% of companies intend to hire fewer workers as a result of National Insurance rises. This is slightly at odds with evidence from the jobs market, which suggests that there is strong demand for labour. To that extent, it’s good news for the passed-over workers.

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Research undertaken by Totaljobs suggests that up to two million workers could change jobs before Christmas this year. This is a large number and it could be indicative of a hot jobs market in which job-hopping to get the best salary around becomes more common.

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Cost of labour: The Times reports recruitment consultancy Robert Walters saying that it believes the jobs market will remain “hot” for some time. It says workers are in short supply. Separately, KPMG and the Recruitment & Employment Confederation have said that starting salaries and wages for temps are rising at their fastest rate in 24yrs.

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Covid. Still with us but declining. The NIESR has updated on its estimates for the R number in the UK. It says ‘despite the increased social contact from the reopening of schools and latterly universities, the R number remains below 1 in all UK nations and English regions.’ It says it expects further decreases in infection and adds ‘hospital admissions are also forecast to decrease.’

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Supply problems. Nestle said it is experiencing some supply chain problems ahead of the Christmas period, but CEO Mark Schneider told the BBC that it was working hard to make sure products made it onto shelves this winter.

The NFU has warned again of the crisis facing the pig industry. It says ‘the knock-on effect of the staff shortages is having a devastating effect on the country’s pig farmers.’

Businesses have criticised the government’s lack of action to help fix supply chain shortages, with those in industry saying they have been ‘left wanting’ on details of a clear plan. Retailer Iceland said it was ‘not helpful’ to make firms the bogeymen. 

Fuel & supply shortages. The Petrol Retailers Association has called for an independent enquiry into continued fuel shortages. It says ‘the recovery [in supplies] is simply not happening quickly enough. We are into our 15th day of the crisis.’

Inflation. The ONS has said that businesses are beginning to put up prices to cover increased costs. it says that 10% of firms increased their prices in early September, up from 8% in mid-August and 4% in a period of similar length late December last year.

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Higher costs. Business leaders have called Johnson’s plan to build a ‘high wage, high skilled’ economy as ‘economically illiterate’. Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon, said the notion that living standards would rise if the government imposed draconian controls on migration was ‘cobblers’.

The ONS reports that the average cost of a pint of draught lager has increased by 9p since August 2020, to £3.88. 10 years ago the average price stood at £3.10, with prices steadily rising since then.

Rail commuters face a 12% increase in fare rises as inflationary pressure creeps into the system. The 12% counts for both this year’s and next year’s expected price rises.

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Brighton Pier Group has updated on trading during the 13-week trading period from 29 June to 26 September 2021. It says that it ‘can confirm that Business Interruption Insurance claims totalling £5 million have been recently settled with its insurers’ and says that it has received all of the funds. It says ‘earnings for FY 21 are expected to be £2 million higher than market expectations on the back of the confirmation of these insurance receipts.’

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Shares in Tortilla Mexican Grill begin trading on AIM this morning under the ticker MEX. The company says it offers ‘a high-quality, affordable and freshly prepared California-style Mexican menu comprising high quality, fresh and customisable products including burritos, tacos and salads.’

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Pizza Express has announced that CEO David Campbell is to stand down for personal reasons. MD Zoe Bowley and chief business officer Jo Bennett will jointly fulfil Mr Campbell’s roll and report to chairman Allan Leighton until a successor is appointed. Mr Campbell joined Pizza Express in November last year.

JD Wetherspoon has said that a BBC report suggesting that the company had seen its gender pay gap in favour of men widen was incorrect. JDW says ‘the average pay gap, taking account of all employees, was -0.45%, meaning, on average, women earned more than men at Wetherspoon.

Per the MCA, Butchies, a fried chicken brand, is set to open its 9th site later this year. The site will be located in London’s Borough Yards, with the chain saying there are a further three sites in the pipeline.

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Anheuser-Busch has launched a new canned vodka seltzer called NÜTRL in the US in three flavours, watermelon, pineapple, and raspberry.

Per Big Hospitality, Carl’s Jr. is looking to enter the UK for the first time. General manager for Europe and Russia, Tim Lowther, said ‘We are looking for a master franchisee in the UK to partner with…We will listen to what’s needed in each market and adapt ourselves accordingly.’  

Company Rescue reports that the UK arm of currency exchange provider, International Currency Exchange has filed for administration.

HVS, Bird & Bird, publishing group EP Business in Hospitality and AlixPartners have commented on the UK hotel industry saying that the lending environment has evolved during Covid. AlixPartners says ‘there are now a number of different lenders, the landscape is more diversified so the ability to absorb shocks in the system is much greater.’ Bird & Bird says that hotel values have held up but the market outlook was more difficult to judge.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

The Department for Transport has cut the UK government’s red list from 54 countries to just seven. Destinations such as Brazil, Mexico and South Africa have been taken off the list.

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Miles  Morgan Travel chairman Miles Morgan reports further growth in consumer confidence to book holidays but reiterated a plea for clarification of dates for day two test changes. Chairman Miles Morgan said ‘We had a super week last week and expect to build on it this week. Sales are getting towards 2019 levels.’

The Travel Network Group warns that the industry faces staffing issues as furlough is brought to an end, saying ‘The majority of our members are consulting with their staff about reducing their working hours temporarily rather than going down the redundancy route.’

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A study by European Travel Commission (ETC) and Eurail has found that intentions to travel to Europe between September and December remain weak in key overseas long-haul markets. Long-haul travel sentiment in the US is positive, but Americans are less confident when Europe is the destination. 

STR reports a drop in US hotel performance saying that, for the week ended 2 October, occupancy was 9.2% lower than 2019 with average rates up 1.2% and REVPAR down 8.2%.

OTHER LEISURE:

Hollywood Bowl Group has updated on full year trading to end-September saying that ‘following the impact of multiple trading restrictions and the complete closure of the estate for 50 per cent of the financial year, the full year performance reflects the robust rebound in customer demand upon the reopening of all centres in England and Wales from 17 May 2021 and the subsequent lifting of Covid restrictions from 19 July 2021.’

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Twitter has announced it will sell MoPub to mobile game and marketing software maker AppLovin for  $1.05 billion in cash. Twitter acquired the company in 2013 for $350 million.

Newcastle United has been bought by a Saudi Arabian-backed consortium for £300m.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Halifax Building Society has reported that house price inflation rose to 7.2 per cent year-on-year in September. It says buyers were looking for more space and adds ‘looking at price changes over the past year, prices for flats are up just 6.1 per cent, compared to 8.9 per cent for semi-detached properties and 8.8 per cent for detached.’

Sterling up at $1.3602 and €1.1776. Oil higher at $83.01 and UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 1.08%. world markets better to mixed yesterday and London set to open down around 3pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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