Mobility stats, current trading, calls for help & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We use York train station quite a lot but I’m beginning to feel that you can have too much of a good thing as I’ve been seeing rather too much of it lately.

For example, I took wife & daughter there yesterday (to go on a financially damaging jaunt to Meadowhall) but the train was cancelled due to ‘staff illness’ (charitably, Omicron, less charitably at this time of year, hangover).

Got halfway home (silently delighted but expressing disappointment) when they decided to go to Leeds instead and give the Trinity Centre some hammer.

So back to the station.

Picked them up at 4pm but found no2 son is now not on a train back from London ‘around the same time’ but rather on one that gets in at 7pm.

Glance at watch, quick tea & no2 guilts me effortlessly into saving him a tenner for the cab by picking him up so back to the station for seven only to find that no3 son is no longer on the same train but rather one that gets in at nine.

Get home, turn around, back to station.

Home. Find ‘Meadowhall might be back on for tomorrow’ and no4 son is ‘coming home on Wednesday’ and wants a lift. Meanwhile, no1 son, thankfully, is in York already. On to the (ever-thinning) news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

MOBILITY:

Mobility stats can be used as a proxy for footfall and footfall for spend. There are some heroic assumptions being made there but we looked at mobility for clients yesterday and include some of our comments below:

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CURRENT TRADING & RENEWED CALLS FOR HELP:

Trading:

UKH has reported that weekend hospitality sales plummeted by 40% ‘amid fears of another lockdown.’ It says the numbers ‘show December set to be a disaster for a sector which had much riding on this key period and hopes for a better 2022 already lie in tatters.’ It adds ‘over half (54%) of venues were down more than 40% in revenue last weekend, with one in five businesses reporting a crushing sales drop of more than 60%. On top of these bleak trading figures, 88% of operators say they feel negative about the potential of New Year’s Eve trading and four in five operators have already experienced cancellations for bookings in what was already set to be a quiet Q1 next year.’

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Taking a wider view, ClearSight reports that ‘the speed and disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard to overstate, whether from the direct impact (or timing) of government intervention, the science of a mutating virus and the race against time to vaccinate entire populations, changes to the industry supply-side and distribution channels or shifts in the priorities and preferences of citizens and consumers.’

ClearSight says that the ‘mood of UK consumers improved into early November, however the latest COVID19 developments has seen the mood wane slightly with lower ratings on the rise.’ It adds that consumers are also financially constrained saying ‘18% of the population are ‘struggling.’ It says that ‘while the majority of consumers are financially comfortable or managing, nearly one in five are struggling and, strikingly, a fairly substantial proportion of this group have never struggled before.’ It points to rising prices for fuel, bills and living costs as major factors of concern.

The New West End Company, which represents the interests of 600 businesses in the West End, said footfall for the weekend of 18 and 19 December was down five per cent from the previous week.

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Springboard reports that footfall on High Streets and city centres fell by 5.9% on Sunday as consumers are ‘clearly cautious’ about venturing out to the shops. However, footfall rose by 4.8% at retail parks as consumers preferred their ‘Covid friendly’ nature. 

The potential for further restrictions.

The direction of travel may have been established and, with The Netherlands first in Europe to announce another lockdown and with other territories going further than the UK, the government has ‘cover’ should it feel able to brave its own right wing. Responding to speculation over the weekend about a potential imminent announcement of further Covid restrictions, UKHospitality CEO, Kate Nicholls, yesterday said ‘trading has already been hugely damaged by the steady stream of pessimistic news following the discovery of the Omicron variant, at a time when hospitality would normally expect to be making a quarter of its annual profits.’

Ms Nicholls adds that any lockdown would hurt cash flow and she says ‘the damage that closure wreaks on consumer confidence would also increase recovery time considerably, not least because it would be coming early in the year, at the slowest period of trading.’ She says ‘trading levels are so poor that the need for proportionate Government support is already acute, and urgently necessary if businesses, jobs and livelihoods are to be secured.’

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Calls for additional aid:

Croydon Business Improvement District has coordinated a call by more than 100,000 retail, hospitality and leisure businesses for a ‘#BusinessBooster’ in the wake of the imposition of Plan B. Croydon says it is ‘baffling and alarming our Chancellor is doggedly sticking to measures which are out of date and out of touch with the stark and desperate reality retail, hospitality and leisure businesses are facing.’

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Pressure is being applied from a number of direction on the chancellor as restaurant industry bosses say he needs to ‘get his act together’. David Page, Chairman at Fulham Shore, said Rishi Sunak needed to provide financial help ‘in the next 24 hours’. Page continued ‘I’m not sure any of the cabinet understand cash flow and cash flow is the problem at the moment, over the last week or two and over the next 10 days.’

UKHospitality and the British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA) have warned that additional industry support is needed now, with thousands of pubs and restaurants facing permanent closure in the weeks ahead. Kate Nicholls, CEO of UKHospitality said as many as 10,000 sites could close even without further restrictions.

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Emma McClarkin, chief executive, BBPA, said a support package was needed early this week so that businesses could make winter survival plans.

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

A somewhat odd day on the market yesterday. ‘Last out, first in’ (of lockdown, that is) seemed to be a sentiment that moved some shares (CINE down 7%, Gym Group down 9%) but other operators, such as Revolution Bars, were up on the day. Just Eat, which may be a beneficiary of further restrictions, was down 5%. 

Simon Emeny, CEO of Fuller, Smith & Turner said the company will close 20 of its busiest London pubs ‘indefinitely’ as ‘sales are currently down between 60% and 80%’ in London. Emeny said ‘it is unviable to keep them open against the backdrop of falling customer numbers and incredibly low footfall.’

Hospitality businesses are to be allowed to erect marquees without planning permission. The Housing Minister Christopher Pincher says ‘the changes we introduced last year supported our town centres and high streets during national restrictions, making sure businesses could stay open and helping to instil a sense of community in our local areas.’ He adds ‘making these measures permanent will help business and communities to build back better from the pandemic and are just one part of our vision to transform towns and cities across England into thriving places to work, visit and live.’

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Krispy Kreme has raised its earning guidance based on “strong momentum in the fourth quarter.”

Naked Wines has begun shipments to the state of Alabama in the US. CEO Nick Devlin, says ‘we’re delighted to be able to connect Alabaman wine lovers directly to our portfolio of world-class independent wine makers. This is another positive step expanding consumer access to our exclusive range of award-winning wines.’

BrewDog has completed in in-depth review of the way the business is run.

EG Group’s £100 million takeover of Leon will see the ‘naturally fast food’ chain accelerate its expansion, opening 50 restaurants next year and creating 1,000 jobs. Much of the expansion will be focused outside London, with openings in Scotland and Wales early next year.

The MCA reports that Hall & Woodhouse is set to acquire 10 pubs this year, with the company saying that it is ‘seeing some good opportunities at the moment’.

Rumours of a fifth alcohol ban in South Africa are rife as the country’s Covid rates climb. Vinpro, South Africa’s wine industry oversight body, said the bans have collectively put more than 21,000 wine jobs at risk and have cost the government more than $340m in tax revenue.

McVitie’s has said brands such as Jaffa Cakes, Penguins and Hobnobs could go up in price by as much as 5%. The price increase is being driven by staff absences, more expensive ingredients and higher labour costs. 

Capital Economics has suggested that current supply problems could be part of a global problem that may persist for two years or more.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Research from Holiday Extras shows that 85% of people who haven’t flown since 2019 intend to take an international trip next year. Turkey is expected to be the biggest winner, helped by the value of Turkish lira falling almost 80% against the pound since 2019.

Mintel research shows that a large proportion  – 34% of domestic holidaymakers and 23% of overseas holidaymakers – did not know when they would book their holiday for next year. Mintel associate director for travel Marloes de Vries said ‘The rising cost of living will make some consumers more price-sensitive.’

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Consumer research from Travel Weekly suggests that two out of five UK adults are likely to book an overseas holiday in 2022 despite the continuing pandemic.

Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line have tightened mask policies on ships saying that masks are now required for all Royal guests aged two and above regardless of vaccination status unless eating or drinking.

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OTHER LEISURE:

Richard Arnold is to be appointed as CEO of Manchester United Football Club, replacing Ed Woodward. Mr Woodward is expected to remain at Manchester United in a consultancy role for a number of months.

The Rank Group announces the appointment of Richard Harris as Group Chief Financial Officer with effect from 1 May 2022.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

A financial report produced by EY suggests that City firms may revive plans to shift staff to the EU once Covid-related travel restrictions ease next year.

The Halifax has forecast that house prices will continue to grow next year though the pace of growth will slow “considerably”.

Sterling weaker at $1.3214 and €1.1715. Oil price higher at $72.20. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 0.77%. World markets mostly lower yesterday but Far East up in Tuesday trade & London set to open up around 94pts.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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