Trading, the consumer, footfall, GDP & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

As we’ve got most of the family back for Christmas, the dog has demoted me in his list of ‘most adored’ people.

I’ve slipped behind the returned kids, the kids who were still at home and Mrs Brumby, but I’ve held off a challenge from the guinea pig, which the dog considers a room-temperature sandwich-in-waiting, and the bearded dragon (similar, but a little colder).

Which is good as far as it goes.

Indeed, it’s occasionally refreshing in the most literal sense of the word not to have the sofa-shaped beast asleep and breaking wind under my desk and, as I think he’s begun to suspect he’s going on a diet after the celebrations – which he definitely is – and he blames me for it, there is some logic to his madness.

Anyway, it just behoves us to wish all our readers near and far a very Merry Christmas and a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Signs that the Omicron variant is milder than Delta have been welcomed by the hospitality industry. However, scientists have pointed out that it is the product of the equation that will determine hospitalisations, deaths and the strain on the NHS. That is basically the number of severity-adjusted infections.

Tough trading:

SIBA reports that 1 in 10 small brewers won’t survive a mooted two week Covid circuit breaker, with almost a third of brewers saying cash reserves will run dry within a month. James Calder, CEO of SIBA, said ‘without Government support we could see a decade’s worth of growth stripped back by another lockdown.’

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Research from Altus Group suggests that more than 400 pubs have disappeared from England and Wales, however the rate of decline has remained relatively static in recent years. Through the analysis of government data, it found that the number of pubs liable to pay property taxes for business rates, including those vacant and being offered to let, fell by 444 to 40,173 in December.

The consumer:

Our thanks to Nick Bubb for pointing out that Retail Economics’ research suggests that 17% of consumers will try to avoid Christmas shopping in physical locations as ‘much as possible’ in the coming weeks, because of the Omicron Covid surge. It says that consumers are now well versed to switching to Online shopping.

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Energy prices. As the fencing guy said to us, energy is virtually everywhere and, if the price of nails or fencing cement has risen, it’s largely because of the energy taken to smelt, dry or transport it. The impacts are many and varied but 1) rising energy prices will impact operator margins negatively and 2) they will reduce consumers’ ability (and probably desire) to spend money on non-essentials.

The Telegraph reports that ‘executives at EDF, Good Energy and the trade body Energy UK urged ministers to step in following a surge in wholesale gas prices that has left the industry on the brink of disaster.’ It says household bills could top £2,000.

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Footfall:

Mixed messages as the BBC reports that ‘almost half of Britons plan to travel to visit friends or family over the festive period…as people enjoy their first Christmas getaway in two years.’ It concedes there ‘are signs that some are taking shorter trips or even cancelling them because of the Omicron variant.’ The Guardian says that some shopping areas are ghostly quiet. It quotes data from Springboard as suggesting that ‘images of near-empty streets in cities such as Manchester and Edinburgh tell a tale of shoppers and tourists alike staying away from city centres over fears about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant and a mass return to working from home.’

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Nightclubs in Scotland will close for at least three weeks from 27 December. Deputy First Minister John Swinney says they could remain open if they effectively become a bar, but they will have to impose 1m distancing between customers. Mr Swinney says ‘we consider that closure in regulations, combined with financial support, may reduce losses and help these businesses weather what we hope will be a short period until they are able to operate normally again.’ He says there had been a ‘rapid acceleration of cases driven by the Omicron variant’ recently.

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

New World Trading Company expects to open between five and eight sites annually from 2022. The company reported ‘severely disrupted’ trading for the year ended 31 March 2021 but said its pipeline ‘remains very strong with many opportunities opening up following the pandemic’.

A new leisure & nightlife venue in Leeds is to be created by TV star, Tom Zanetti and business partner, Kane Towning, located in the Electric Press, just off Millennium Square.

Arc Inspirations reports sales up 42% between July and November this year, versus 2019, and says it is on track to post record revenue and profit in FY2022. The bar group announced revenue was £9.9m for the full year to 31 March 2021, compared to £30.1m in 2020.

Sky reports that the UK could be about to suffer from a shortage of cardboard boxes.

Selfridges has reportedly been sold sold to a Thai retailer and an Austrian property firm.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Travel Weekly reports that ‘Crystal Ski has been forced to cancel departures to Austria next week as tighter entry restrictions on UK arrivals were imposed.’

STR reports that US hotel performance was ahead of 2019 in the week to 18 December.

ACI Europe figures show that passengers using European airports fell by 20% in the three weeks following the first reports of the Omicron. The decline was reversed in the past week with passenger numbers rising 9% and load factors regaining two percentage points to 56%.

Pax Travel, the Christian pilgrimage tour specialist, has ceased trading.

Rail companies have once again warned about elevated numbers of sickness-related absences during the Christmas getaway. The AA believes that yesterday and today will be the busiest on the roads.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI has warned that economic growth in the UK is at its weakest since the spring as a result of the Omicron variant and its impact on confidence, staff absences etc. The CBI’s index of growth fell to +21% this month from +32% in November.

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Sterling stronger at $1.339 and €1.1818. Oil price up at $76.56. UK 10yr gilt yield up 4bps at 0.93%. World markets better yesterday but Far East mixed in Christmas Eve trading and London set to open down around 26pts.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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