Restaurant Group, Everyman, new openings, confidence, coffee etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

It may be a sign of laziness – indeed it almost definitely is a sign of laziness – but, when writing, I sometimes find that I give up on a word halfway through and finish with a squiggle.

There’s therefore precious little to choose between words such as difference, different, differentiation, differential, differentiate and a whole host of others – except for the odd dot to suggest an ‘I’ or a cross to indicate a ‘t’ – and, as far as pronunciation is concerned, it’s sometimes much the same.

Hence, whilst I’ve no doubt generations of teachers, mine and many others, will be spitting feathers, often an ‘eh’ at the end of a word such as tomato or potato will suffice because, in the absence of a ‘w’ at the end, surely that’s what’s intended?

However, whilst that might sound moderately convincing, it’s still tempting to stick a grunt at the end of pillow and pillar (both pill-eh rather than pill owe), which kind of blows that theory out of the water.

Anyway, have a good weekend and on to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Full stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

See Twitter for in-day comment. Let us know if you would like an example of the Premium Email or to comment on the new format.

Prices for the Premium, unchanged for 2yrs, are £295 for one subscription, £495 for multiple, both plus VAT. Reply to this email to order & request invoice.

Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

GfK has reported that Consumer Confidence in the UK dropped four points in January with all five measures down. It says that the ‘financial pulse of the nation grows weaker amid worries over inflation, fuel bills and interest rate rises.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Delivery.

Looking at the differences between the US and UK food delivery markets, foodservice analyst Peter Backman has highlighted the fact that UK consumers use aggregators more than do their US peers. The latter are more likely to go to restaurants directly. Research suggests that while delivery orders increased during the pandemic and the channel remains popular, about 44% of consumers are more likely to order directly for delivery from a restaurant. Comparatively, 17% of diners order from aggregators.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Vaccine mandates.

In the US, Starbucks has sent a memo to employees on Tuesday saying that it is dropping its vaccination or weekly testing mandate for employees following a court ruling. It says ‘we respect the court’s ruling and will comply.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Black Box in the US has said that December sales growth for restaurants dropped to 4.1% from 8.4% in November.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

New openings:

After several years of quarter-on-quarter declines in unit numbers, the latest CGA & Alix Partners Market Recovery Monitor suggests that there was a net increase of 1.6% in pub & restaurant outlet numbers in Q4 last year. The Monitor says that the ‘fourth-quarter openings bring positive signs for hospitality, but Omicron dents recovery.’ The Monitor says that the industry could need more help after a disappointing Christmas.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

The Monitor suggests that ‘demand is strong’ and says this provides hope for a sustainable recovery. Indeed, we would very much like this to be the case but, as the squeeze on the consumer has only just commenced, demand in the recent past may not be a good indicator of demand in the future.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Coffee market:

The World Coffee Portal’s latest report, Project Café UK 2022, suggests that the ‘£4.4bn UK branded coffee shop market [has recovered] to 87% of pre-pandemic value, achieving a better-than-anticipated £1.3bn sales rebound in 2021.’ It says, however, that the ‘planned VAT rise, new Covid-19 variants and ongoing staff shortages represent significant market headwinds in the year ahead and could damage the recovery for those operators unable to adapt to tough market realities.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Expansion opportunities:

Christie & Co’s latest Business Outlook report has suggested that the Covid 19 pandemic has caused major problems for some restaurant operators, but has provided opportunities for others. It says ‘prior to the pandemic the restaurant sector was already suffering the ill effects of over-expansion, particularly on the high street and Covid simply accelerated this distress.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Work from Home:

Guidance to work from home has been scrapped. Langton (and others) will be keeping a sharp eye on mobility stats but, safe to say, mobility will be higher next week than it was last.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Trading:

Fourth has updated on trading saying that ‘challenging trading conditions in December ensured the end of year boost hospitality had hoped for, largely failed to materialise.’ It says its figures ‘show that combined sales across pubs, restaurants, hotels, and quick service restaurants were 24.4% down on December 2019.’ It says ‘the re-introduction of trading restrictions across the UK and concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 omicron variant led to many consumers staying away from the on-trade in the run up to Christmas.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Christie & Co’s restaurant price index for 2021 shows that in terms of capital values, restaurant prices have fallen by 12.9%, with Covid-19 having had a polarising effect on restaurants across the UK. Opportunities still exist for restaurateurs, with markets such as takeaway and delivery, franchised businesses and quick service restaurants experiencing growth in 2021.

Comité Champagne reports that champagne sales rebounded last year to a record €5.5bn as demand soared despite on-trade restrictions. About 322m bottles were sold in 2021, up 32% from the previous year, when shipments slumped 20% during Covid lockdowns worldwide. 

IWSR Drinks Market Analysis shows that no- and low-alcohol drinks continue to grow in popularity, helped by consumer trends such as Dry January. No- and low-alcohol drinks now command a 3.5% volume share of the industry. The IWSR forecasts that no- and low-alcohol volume will grow by 8% CAGR between 2021 and 2025. 

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

The Restaurant Group has updated on full year trading saying that it is raising its guidance to the top end of the range for EBITDA of £73m to £79m that it had suggested back in August. Net debt will be ‘less than £180m’ (previous guidance less than £190m).

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Chairman of Wetherspoons, Tim Martin, told Sky News he was ‘breakdancing round my living room’ after the announcement was made that COVID-19 restrictions were to be eased. The Plan B restrictions had reduced footfall in city centres resulting in a so-called ‘lockdown by stealth’.

Punch Pubs & Co is looking for individual freehold pubs or groups of pubs across the UK, to grow their 1,300 strong portfolio of pubs. Stephen Radford, Punch’s Head of Estates, has appointed Matthew Phillips Surveyors and hospitality and leisure expert Alan Dunn of Spirit Consult as retained agents to seek out new pubs.

Drinks Business reports that BrewDog’s CEO and co-founder James Watt has admitted that the company took ‘shortcuts’ when it sent shipments of its beer to the US, in contravention of US import laws. Mr Watt said in his blog post that the company had contacted the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) to inform them.

Former TTB labelling specialist Battle Martin told the BBC ‘I think it’s serious. There’s a lot of people out there putting a lot of effort into complying with the regulations. There has been a deception here’.

REKOM UK has updated on trading in its nightclubs and late-night bars for the four weeks to 31 December 2021. LFL revenue decreased 25% to £8.8m compared to the same four-week period in 2019. The company said ‘this robust performance was achieved despite the rising preoccupation regarding the rise in Covid-19 cases across the UK’.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

In the US, McDonald’s will expand its eight-unit US test of its plant-based McPlant burger to about 600 restaurants in the San Francisco Bay Area and Dallas Fort Worth. The McPlant patty features plant-based ingredients like peas, rice and potatoes, the company said.

Inception Group is set to launch a further Mr Fogg’s site in Mayfair later this year, located on the former Balls Brothers site on 34 Brook street. 

Robinsons Brewery plans to relocate its Lower Hillgate brewing and head office operations to its packaging centre in Bredbury.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Jet2 is seeing strong demand for Easter ski. It says it is laying on more Geneva flights. CEO Steve Heapy tells Travel Weekly ‘all eight ski destinations that we have on sale this winter are looking extremely popular [and] in response to that, we are expanding our Easter ski programme so that customers have even more choice when it comes to hitting the best slopes in Europe.’

Aparthotel company Staycity has announced that it has ‘undertaken a major refurbishment of its Gare de l’Est property in Paris, giving all 50 apartments and guest areas a state-of-the art, contemporary facelift.’

UKinbound is urging the government to  scrap day two testing for vaccinated international arrivals to the UK at the next travel review. The organisation argues that two day testing continues to be an ‘impediment to recovery’ and at odds with European countries such as Ireland.

Landal GreenParks will open a multimillion pound eco-friendly holiday resort in Scotland, calling it the ‘blueprint for the future of the sector’. Paul Hardingham, MD of Landal GreenParks UK, said ‘Not only is the accommodation innovative, it will all be underpinned by very strong environmental credentials, making the resort one of the greenest and most technologically advanced parks in Europe.’

Marriott reports a strong year of rooms growth and signings in 2021, adding a record 86,000 gross rooms and 517 properties. Net rooms grew by 4% for the full year, with a development pipeline for the future of roughly 485,000 rooms.

OTHER LEISURE:

Everyman Media Group has updated on full year trading saying that group revenue was up 101% at £48.7m ‘with 33 weeks trading, driven by strong admissions since re-opening.’ It says this compares to 2020 ‘which saw 10 weeks of normal trading, 17 weeks of disrupted trading and 25 weeks of full closure due to COVID-19 restrictions.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Netflix shares tumbled yesterday evening as it commented on the fading of demand that it had seen during lockdowns. The number of subscribers grew to 222 million last year. The company added 18.2 million members in the year, around half the number of 2020. The company says it expects to add only 2.5 million members in Q1, well below estimates.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Peloton shares fell by around 20% after a CNBC report.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The RICS survey for Q4 points to a continued slide in the number of UK properties for sale.

Sterling weaker at $1.3587 and €1.1992. Oil price lower at $87.09. UK 10yr gilt yield down 4bps at 1.22%. World markets heading lower yesterday and London set to open down around 65pts.

Land Registry data shows the average cost of a home in London is £520,000, up 5.1 per cent in a year.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.