October Tracker, Nightcap, rents & landlords, Cineworld, Gfinity & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We ran a Twitter poll on Friday asking are you a sock purist or are you prepared to mix them up a bit?

It being Monday morning with all of that entails, not least finding something to wear to work, it’s timely as we opined that ‘there are two sorts of people out there. Sock purists, who need to have them match or they begin to shiver and twitch, and the ‘meh!’ brigade who, provided there are two of them, will make do with socks of any hue, length or texture. Where do you stand?’

Well the poll got a couple of dozen responses and it would appear that readers are about 3:1 in favour of wearing socks that match.

Which is perhaps understandable. But maybe that’s in an ideal world and I would suggest that, if you’re talking about yellow with pink dots on one foot and Stars and Stripes on the other then that’s one thing but, if the choice on a bleary Monday morning, long before the sun has come up, is between making mid-grey and dark grey match or having to turn the light on and have an altogether more thorough rummage through your sock drawer, that’s quite another.

Anyway, it’s the beginning of a new week and we’re definitively out of bed so let’s move on to the news:

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OCTOBER SALES TRACKER:

The Coffer CGA Business Tracker for October has been released and headlines that October sales are up 3% from pre-Covid (2019) levels whilst cumulative 12mth sales are still down by 4.5% for managed pubs, bars & restaurants. The Tracker says ‘Britain’s leading managed restaurant, pub and bar groups achieved modest sales growth in October amid mounting operational pressures.’

Overall numbers:

• Total sales for the month of October were up by 3% on the same month in 2019. They were up by 64% on the same month last year when various Tiers were in force and we were heading into a November lockdown (Lockdown II).

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The consumer:

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has suggested that consumers might continue to hoard cash and not spend the funds saved during lockdown. It says its survey suggests that only £55 of any ‘windfall’ £500 that consumers receive would be spent over the next three months.

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Rents & landlords:

Savills has reported that rents in central London prime zone A have fallen by 17.4% in the last year. The agent reports ‘this is largely a reflection of robust domestic spending on eating out as we have emerged from lockdown but has also been supported by the relaxation in planning that permits the conversion of retail to F&B use.’ Footfall in the West End for the 13 weeks of Q3 2021, was up 33.4%, but still down 47% versus 2019.

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Labour supply:

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation has said that the UK’s labour squeeze is set to continue in the run up to Christmas. It says the number of active job postings in the UK has hit a new record of 2.68m positions. It says this growth in job adverts shows “no signs of slowing down in the build-up to Christmas.” It says the number of job ads for bar staff (+3.2%), chefs (+3.1%) and waiters and waitresses (+2.7%) are all up again.

Off-sales:

NRN in the US reports that restaurants are pushing ‘off-premises channels and avoiding dine-in experiences as their frustrations mount with staffing, supply and general pandemic concerns.’ It quotes some operators as saying that service quality has been suffering due to reduced staff numbers. New data last week from analytics firm Black Box Intelligence found October same-store sales were up 6% but same-store traffic was down 6.4%. it says ‘October was the worst month for the industry for traffic growth since the 9.4% reported in March, when vaccines were still early in their rollout and consumers were significantly more cautious.’

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Nightcap plc has reported full year results for the 52 weeks to 27 June 2021 saying that the group’s ‘winning strategy is well under way.’ CEO Sarah Willingham says ‘Nightcap was built during the Covid-19 global pandemic to acquire and expand leading brands in the drinks-led bar sector. We are acquiring fundamentally strong businesses that have been weakened by the impact of the pandemic.’

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Customers visiting theatres, cinemas and concerts in Wales will now have to prove that they are fully-vaccinated or have a negative lateral flow test after the widening of the NHS COVID Pass scheme.

The Living Wage Foundation says that there are still 4.8 million jobs, around 17.1% of all employees, that are still paying less than the Real Living Wage in the UK. This is a non-statutory measure and is not to be confused with the National Living Wage.

CAMRA has published The Good Beer Guide, featuring the very best pubs to find a great pint in the UK. The Guide reports that the number of independent UK breweries has increased to 1,902 in 2021 from 1,816 in 2020. The Good Beer Guide also found that while 138 breweries have opened this year and are newly listed in the guide, 75 closed with some regions reporting higher or equal numbers of closures compared to new breweries.

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SIBA Business Awards 2022 will feature new categories for Online Beer Retailers, Brewery Webshops and Community Engagement.

The FT reported on Friday that waiting staff are accusing restaurants of cutting their tips to pay chefs. The split of tips between back of house staff, who produce the meals, and waiting staff, who carry it to tables (unless bussers do this) has always been an area of contention.

CGA has reported that hard seltzers are attracting a higher-spending demographic. It says ‘hard seltzer drinkers have an average monthly spend on eating and drinking out that is £40 higher than the average GB consumer, while 79% drink out at least weekly—more than double the average.’

Sky reports that Boparan Holdings ‘is in advanced negotiations with several hedge funds about providing around £50m of extra liquidity to the company.’ It says the need for cash goes to ‘underline the squeeze that has been exerted on food producers amid the toxic cocktail of labour and raw material shortages, and accelerating inflation, which has been blighting major economies in recent months.’ Boparan recently warned that the era of cheap food production was coming to an end. It said ‘food is too cheap, there’s no point avoiding the issue. In relative terms, a chicken today is cheaper to buy than it was 20 years ago.’

Fuller’s is celebrating its 176th birthday tomorrow, 16 November. It will be offering selected drinks at 176p each.

Tim Horton’s is to open its latest drive-through, at Fife Leisure Park, Dunfermline, next week.

China’s Singles’ Day saw sales up 8.5% to £63bn, with growth slowing compared to the 26% rise last year. Singles’ Day is now the biggest online sales event in the world and has become a closely-watched gauge of Chinese consumer sentiment.

However, the Singles’ Day sales have given Alibaba a much-needed boost to the firm after a torrid year in which it became the symbol of a government crackdown.

Combined sales with its industry rival JD.com came in at 889bn yuan, which was also a record and up about a fifth from last year.

Sheffield Hallam university has produced a Beers, Burgers + Bleach podcast that suggests food and drink workers experienced poor mental and physical health due to “intense” workload demands.

Sky reports Bridgepoint has hired Bank of America and Investec to spearheadBurger King UK’’s IPO during the first half of 2022. Burger King UK’s performance has been boosted by an expanded portfolio of drive-thru restaurants, while it also has partnerships with Deliveroo, Just Eat and UberEats.

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LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has forecast a full recovery by the second half of 2022 and will not cut prices to boost demand.

President and CEO  Frank Del Rio said ‘We’re not in a race to raise volume. We want to maintain price discipline. We’ve seen time and again companies drop prices [and] it takes years and years to get prices back up.’

Norwegian has released itineraries through to summer 2024 alongside a 35% price discount. The line revealed two new homeports, with Norwegian Sky in La Romana, Dominican Republic, and Norwegian Epic from Haifa in Israel.

The Hoxton will open sites in Barcelona, Brussels and Berlin, and a fourth London hotel in Shepherd’s Bush in 2022.

The Times reports that Sun Communities, a US property REI, is set to buy Park Holidays for nearly £1 billion.

AGO Hotels has announced the addition of three new UK hotels, in Bracknell, Gloucester, and Thurrock. This expansion brings AGO Hotels up to 14 locations and 1,000 rooms across the UK. Amazon buses can be of any shape and colour and do not accept the TfL pass.

Amazon has acquired four London bus routes, which will be run by contracted operators, connecting  London to the outskirts where most of its warehouses are located.

Delta Airlines has said that tackling climate change will make flying more expensive.

Business travel company CWT filed for Ch11 bankruptcy protection last week and it was reported to have exited Ch11 after just one day. It undertook a restructuring. The company’s CEO, Michelle McKinney Frymire reported on Friday ‘we are pleased to have received prompt court approval of the agreement we reached with CWT’s financial stakeholders, which positions the company for long-term success and provides significant financial resources to further grow and develop our business.’

STR reports that the London hotel industry turned in its best month since the start of the pandemic in October.

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OTHER LEISURE:

Cineworld Group has updated on trading for the four months ended 31 October 2021 saying that ‘since reopening our estate in April 2021, performance and attendances have steadily grown and this has resulted in revenue growth as seen in the table below. Customer demand has been particularly strong in a number of the Group’s markets, in some cases even above the levels experienced in 2019.’ The company says group sales rose from 50% of 2019 levels in July to 90% in October.

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Gfinity has reported full year results showing a 27% increase in revenues to £5,7m with an operating loss of £2.7m, down from a loss of £5.5m in the prior year. The company says ‘we have been encouraged with what we have achieved against the backdrop of the pandemic.’ It says ‘looking ahead, we are now in a position to grow and monetise at scale. Despite ongoing uncertainty around Covid-19, macro trends around gaming are attractive and we remain focused on delivering against our strategy.’

Spotify has acquired digital audiobook distributor Findaway for an undisclosed sum. 

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The NIESR reports that the UK economy should grow by 1.1 per cent in the last quarter of 2021, including month-on-month growth of 0.4 per cent in October. It says ‘the end of the post-Covid bounce in consumer services has removed one source of upward momentum but goods and labour shortages have taken over as a brake on growth. Most of September’s 0.6 per cent growth came from the largely nonmarket healthcare sector.’

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The EU has reported a “change in tone” from the UK in the latest round of talks on the Northern Ireland Protocol. This may lessen fears of a trade dispute escalating.

Sterling higher at $1.3436 and €1.1714. Oil price down at $81.95. UK 10yr gilt yield down one basis point at 0.91%. World markets broadly higher on Friday but London set to open around 7pts lower as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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