Isolation periods, Cineworld, freeholds, trading, jobs, tenant support etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Thankyou to those who commented on our trip to boozers in Kentish Town the night before last.

Well, boozer in the singular, actually, but it did bring home that such trips are, as well as enjoyable, somewhat necessary in order to keep one’s finger on the pulse from time to time. Certainly that’s the line we’ll be trying on the tax authorities, which prompts a question: where should we go next?

If we’re to get much from it, we should maybe see a max of three pubs – otherwise we risk not seeing much at all – and in areas maybe no more than 30 minutes from central London, say Bank Tube, in the winter and maybe a bit further afield in the summer.

Hence, any suggestions?

Have a good weekend and on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Reduction in isolation period:

Health secretary Sajid Javid has introduced a five day isolation period for those who test positive for Covid. Negative lateral flow tests on day 6 and day 7 will mean individuals will be able to leave their self-isolation.

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Emma McClarkin, CEO of the BBPA said ‘The new guidance will go some way to alleviating the pressure on staff numbers that our members have been experiencing throughout the pandemic. For the new measures to truly have an impact it is important that availability of lateral flow tests remains consistent throughout the country.’

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The ONS reports that an estimated 3% of the UK workforce was off work in late December while a fifth of businesses reported increased cancellations over the past month.

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The market for freehold assets:

Fleurets comments on pub transactions during 2021 saying ‘the most significant feature of the public house market during 2021 has not been a deluge in the number of empty pubs or the remnants of failed businesses, but it has been the strong level of demand across the country for operational businesses and development sites set against a supply shortage of available opportunities to purchase.

It contrasts this with the restaurant (largely leasehold) market when it says ‘unlike the fast-casual restaurant market which saw some larger operators restructure their often highly geared leasehold estates and shed underperforming units, thus creating the growth opportunities for others, the pub sector has experienced very little “churn”, as the major groups benefit from predominantly freehold ownership with an ability to take a longer term view that have been content to stick instead of twist.’

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Christmas trading:

New data from UK Hospitality and CGA shows sales in pubs, restaurants and bars down 60% on Christmas Day, 31% on Boxing Day and 27% on New Year’s Eve, compared to 2019. The data suggests that the ‘hospitality market suffered devastating sales falls in the last week of the year.’

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An appeal for further help:

Data from CGA and UKH suggests that larger chains fared ‘slightly better than independents’ over Christmas but it the bodies say ‘hospitality is facing significant headwinds in 2022, compounding a challenging outlook for thousands of businesses and millions of workers. Sector businesses face a cliff edge in April when VAT is set to return to 20%, plus a rise in business rates and labour costs.’ Add in energy & other costs and margins are set to come under pressure (or volumes may suffer if price rises are passed on).

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The jobs market:

We’ve seen wage hikes from Pret & the supermarket groups and, given the tight labour market, such moves are likely to continue. The latest KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs survey suggests that both permanent temporary job vacancies continued to rise at rates much higher than the historic average. Starting salaries are moving up.

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Hospitality Ulster says half of hospitality businesses have suffered losses in excess of 50% in Northern Ireland. The survey showed almost all members have been negatively affected by the government messaging on limiting contacts and the additional restrictions introduced on 22 December and brought into force on 26 December 2021.

WFH:

Work conducted by Virgin Media O2 has suggested that the number of office workers commuting into London fell to around 20% of its pre-pandemic levels last week. It says that Soho and certain shopping centres were busy but that normal commuting patterns seemed to have been suspended.

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The MA reports that Welsh publicans are calling the plans to move Welsh Six Nations matches outside of Wales ‘insulting’. Licensee of the Man of Steel pub in Newport, Alison Mcloughlin, said ‘Wales may be a beautiful country but the only thing that’s left for Wales is rugby and the rug is going to be pulled from under our feet.’

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Star Pubs & Bars has announced that it is offering all its pubs on core leased & tenanted agreements in Scotland and Wales 30% rent reductions to support them while they are subject to additional Government restrictions.

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Admiral Taverns reports group turnover of £40.2m for the year ended 29 May 2021, down from £42m the year prior. Operating profit was £3.7m, with the business recording a loss after tax of £5.2m, compared to a loss of £3.4m in 2020. CEO Chris Jowsey said the pandemic and the UK government’s response to it ‘had a seismic impact on the hospitality sector’.

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Revolution Electric Press, a nightlife venue in Leeds, is set for a £300k refurbishment with new cocktail menu and ‘vodka-land theme’.

Next has followed other businesses in reducing sick pay for unvaccinated workers to the Statutory Minimum of £96.35 a week.

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Budweiser Budvar UK plans to beat its 38% increase in volume sales in the UK for 2021 after a brand refresh in 2020. The company said UK on-trade sales had made a strong recovery once venues reopened in April 2021 after Covid restrictions. Off-trade sales saw strong performance too, with Budweiser Budvar being the third fastest growing world lager in supermarkets.

Hawksmoore has secured a new debt facility reports Propel.

Mark Wahlberg is set to launch his own line of Tequila with Flecha Azul.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Bookings jump as France is set to ease restrictions for UK travellers from Monday. Airline Jet2 said it had seen a ‘sharp’ rise in bookings and searches for flights to French skiing destinations and Tui said ski bookings doubled on Wednesday.

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Fly Now Pay Later has closed a $75m debt funding package provided by funds managed by Atalaya Capital Management to support US expansion. The company is a  buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) player in the travel sector.

TravelPerk has raised $115 million with new investment from existing shareholder Kinnevik, as well as from new investor General Catalyst. The company intends to use the fresh investment to go ‘much deeper’ in developing areas such as sustainable travel and expanding its product range.

STR reports that last week, ‘U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week’, which had been boosted by holiday period traffic. STR says that occupancy was 45.4%, down some 14.9% on 2019 with REVPAR down 19.0%. It says ‘occupancy fell week over week because of a slowdown in leisure demand and a continued absence of business travel due to a Saturday holiday. While ADR also dropped from an all-time high the previous week, the metric came in at roughly 95% of the 2019 comparable.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Cineworld Group has updated on trading for the six months to 31 December 2021 saying that ‘performance and attendances have steadily grown’. It adds that ‘changes in the film slate for November mainly due to “Top Gun: Maverick” moving to May 2022 impacted the gradual recovery seen since reopening. December was particularly strong supported by the success of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” across all territories, becoming the first film to gross more than 1.5 billion dollars at the box office since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling mixed at $1.3731 and €1.1962. Oil price higher at $84.57. UK 10yr gilt yield down 3bps at 1.11%. World markets heading lower as yesterday progressed & London set to open down around 30pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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