Mobility, WFH, London sales, vacancy rates, Fever-Tree, holidays etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Welcome to shorter-than-usual business week after a weekend during which we managed to cut the grass and see that Hull City lost 0-5 at home in an ultimately successful bid to lull Bristol City into a feeling of superiority.

Indeed, you know when the season is over and there’s very little to play for when you win 3-0 in one match and then collapse the next weekend when you’re lucky to get nil but we’ll surely be in Europe for the 2024/25 season, so there’s at least that to look forward to.

Anyway, although it’s a Tuesday that feels like a Monday, there’s still stuff going on out there so, without further ado, let’s ask first, who said ‘I don’t like people who are indifferent to the truth’ and then second, move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Working from home:

Airbnb is allowing its employees to work from anywhere for as long as they like, without their pay being affected. The move is in contrast to the likes of Google in the US, where staff who work from home may see their pay cut.

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The BBC reports that ‘a London law firm has offered staff the option to work from home permanently, but the convenience comes at a price.’ It says ‘Stephenson Harwood, said it would allow staff to work remotely but pay them 20% less than their current salary.’

London:

Whilst this is a hotel story, it is relevant for London’s pubs, restaurants, clubs & visitor attractions etc. The New York Times reports that London is springing back to life, with Heathrow passenger travel from North America in particular increasing by more than 60% January 2022.

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Vacancy rates:

The Local Data Company reported last week that, in Q1, ‘the overall GB vacancy rate decreased to 14.1%, which was a 0.3 percentage point down from Q4 2021. This was only the second quarter of falling vacancy rates since Q1 2018.’ It says that even shopping centre vacancies fell, albeit form a very-high 19.1% to a slightly lower 19.0%.

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Consumer demand:

We believe that big ticket spending (cars, furniture, carpets etc and, in leisure, holidays) could be more at risk than are ‘affordable treats’. Interestingly, AO.com on Friday said that ‘customer demand progressively weakened across the sector’. It says ‘we remain cautious about our revenue and profit outlook in the near term.’

Meanwhile, the ONS has reported that 39% of adults said they cut back their grocery shops, rising from 34% a fortnight ago and 18% at the start of the year. It says about 40% of people said they “found it very or somewhat difficult to afford” energy bills, while around 20% said they were “unable to buy fuel”. The latter number was 8% earlier this month.

Drinks demand:

CGA’s latest Drinks Recovery Tracker has reported that drink sales in the on-trade overall in the week to 23 April were up 1% on 2019 levels. This is significantly behind inflation. CGA says beer sales were up 1%, soft drinks were up 2% and spirits’ sales were up 8%. Less good news for cider (down 8%) and wine (down 6%).

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Other news:

ASDA chairman Lord Rose says that food prices could keep on rising, and stay higher “for quite some time.” He says that the higher cost of raw materials could lead to a further cycle of cost increases.

Nottingham City Council is to consider scrapping its Late Night Levy in the face of the ‘significant financial pressures faced by businesses’ in question. The levy was introduced in 2014. Most venues are currently charged £768.

COMPANY NEWS:

Fever-Tree has announced that chairman Bill Ronald has informed the Board of his intention to retire from his role and to step down from the Board at the time of the AGM in May 2023. The Nomination Committee will commence the search for his successor.

Domino’s Pizza shares fell 5% in the US after it missed Q1 sales estimates and warned staffing shortages and inflation would pressure its business further into the year. CEO Richard Allison said ‘2022 is shaping up to be a challenging year’. U.S. same-store sales in Q1 decreased 3.6%, while analysts polled by Refinitiv on average had expected a 0.6% decline.

Keurig Dr Pepper reports Q1 earnings in line with estimates, at $585 million, or $0.41 per share. This compares with $325 million, or $0.23 per share, in last year’s first quarter. The company’s revenue for the quarter rose 6.2% to $3.08 billion from $2.90 billion last year.

Something & Nothing, a Hackney-based premium drinks brand, has secured £1.5m investment led by Tom Singh’s Rianta Capital, along with Siggi Hilmarsson and Dutch entrepreneur Bart Jan Manten.

McDonald’s has said that shutting its operations in Ukraine and Russia has cost $127 million.

Chopstix has announced plans to open four new sites by the end of July, as it ‘continues a steady programme of growth in 2022.’

Stonegate Group has won two awards at the British Institute of Innkeeping’s National Innovation in Training Awards 2022.

Heineken-owned Star Pubs & Bars is to invest £42m in upgrading its estate of pubs this year.

The Times reports Greene King boss Nick Mackenzie as saying that the hospitality sector is “not out of the woods.” He says ‘the government have clearly pulled away from giving support to the sector. We were glad of the support at the beginning of this year, but that support dropped away in the second half of the year and we started to stand on our own two feet again.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly reports that agents are seeing strong late bookings despite increasingly tight availability for the peak summer months. Advantage Travel Partnership reported 42% of bookings through its managed service agents last week were for travel in the next 12 weeks.

The Passport Office insists that it has ‘prepared extensively’ for the post-pandemic surge in demand for its services, saying that the ‘vast majority’ of applications were being dealt with well within a 10-week window. It said delays could be caused by applications being submitted with missing or incomplete information.

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HotStats figures show European Q1 hotel performance ending strongly, with March profit surging across most global regions. European GOPPAR hit €35.97, the highest the number has reached since it peaked in October 2021. Though occupancies crept up, it was the average daily rate that boosted hotelier fortunes.

HVS reports that the number of hotel transactions in Europe is back up to 2020 levels. It says it is seeing a ‘strong recovery for European hotel transactions with deals worth €16.4bn.’ HVS says that London topped the European league table for hotel transaction last year with Barcelona, Stockholm, Berlin and Madrid coming next.

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Visitor attraction company Merlin Entertainments last week reported that CEO Nick Varney is to retire from the company. It says ‘Nick has a 12-month notice period during which the Board will identify his successor and ensure an orderly handover.’

A number of seaports are reported to be considering legal action against the government to recover the costs of building border control posts. The imposition of additional red tape and border checks has now been delayed for a fourth time.

Dalata Hotel Group updated on trading last Thursday, with Chairman John Hennessy saying ‘we have moved firmly into recovery with strong trading post re-opening across all markets…We announced in March that RevPAR1 for the Group was approaching pre-pandemic levels and I am delighted to report that it is expected to be 109% of 2019 levels for the March/April period.’

American Express Global Business Travel expects the travel recovery to continue to ‘build strong momentum’ during 2022 as transactions have risen to just over 60% of pre-Covid levels.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Daily Mail reports ‘Gerard Lyons, a former adviser to the Prime Minister’ as suggesting that botched decision-making by the Bank of England means ‘a sharp slowdown is now inevitable’ and recession ‘possible’. The Bank of England could put UK base rates up again this coming Thursday.

The Telegraph quotes Lord Rose, ASDA chairman & former CEO of Marks & Spencer, as saying that the Bank of England and ministers were too slow to react to the impending wave of inflation that has triggered a cost of living crisis. he says ‘I think the Government and the Bank of England have been slow to recognise inflation coming’ adding ‘we saw the signs last year that inflation was coming. I think the actions that have been taken to curb it have been a bit slow.’

Eurostat reports that the annual rate of inflation across the Eurozone is now 7.5%, up from 7.4% last month.

The Nationwide on Friday reported that house price growth had slowed in April but says that it ‘remains in double digits.’ It says ‘annual UK house price growth slowed modestly to 12.1% in April, down from 14.3% in March.’

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Official data shows that French GDP was unchanged in Q1 this year.

Sterling up at $1.2524 and €1.191. Oil price down at $107.39. UK 10yr gilt yield up 2bps over the weekend at 1.90%. World markets heading better with London set to open up around 48pts as at 6.45am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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