Fuller’s webinar, football, labour, inflation, amber list concessions etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

In a permanent reminder that you should never give in to the whims of 12yr olds – because they won’t be 12 forever and whatever you do then will rebound on you later – we have a bearded dragon.

I say we because daughter is now only vaguely aware that it lives somewhere in the house and, I fear, it may have gone senile.

This because all it does is stare at me with its mouth open. True, this has been a feature of its existence since it was little more than an egg but now it looks as though it really means it, there just isn’t anything behind its eyes.

And yes, I’m sure, if I stopped moving it would pop over to see if any bit of me was worth eating but, in the meantime, it just does nothing.

Anyway, that’s not an option for Langton this morning as we have things to do. On to the news:

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FULLER, SMITH & TURNER – FY NUMBERS:

Following the release of its FY numbers yesterday, Fuller’s hosted a webinar for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below:

The group says Central London units ‘still less than 50% of 2019 levels’ but maintains that they are ‘building back strongly…’

The numbers & trading:

• The group reopened its entire estate on 17 May (including airports and Central London). The ‘heart of London’ units are underperforming the whole estate. For further comment, see premium email

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

• The BBPA predicts England fans will drink over 7 million pints on Sunday as England plays in the Euros final against Italy. However, the trade association warned that pubs are set to lose out on nearly £9 million in beer sales alone during the final due to trading restrictions, which will mean they sell 2.4m fewer pints during the match than if they had already been removed.

• Emma McClarkin, CEO of the BBPA, said ‘Only when the restrictions are removed can our pubs recover, but to do so they need Government investment to build back better…We are calling for reform of VAT, beer duty and business rates on pubs and breweries which will help build stronger communities, jobs, investments’.

Labour and supply issues:

• The BBPA has warned that a temporary extension of working hours for hauliers is not the answer to a shortage of staff being experienced in the logistics sector. It also warned of continuing concerns in the beer and pub sector over NHS Test & Trace ‘pings’ forcing staff to self-isolate, resulting in pubs reducing their opening hours or even temporarily closing.

• The Press & various trade journals comment further on staff shortages. The Guardian says chefs, waiting staff, hotel porters, cleaners and front of house staff are all in short supply. The Resolution Foundation says Covid and the furlough scheme had an effect like a fire alarm going off. Bottlenecks at the lifts (and trips to get a coffee etc) mean that buildings take much longer to fill up than they did to empty. This is a sensible analogy but, if you substitute ‘returned to Poland permanently’ for ‘queue at the lifts’, you can make the situation more secular than temporary. The end of furlough should remove some confusion as to just who is available to work and who is not.

• Further comment: see premium email.

Inflation:

• The May CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index suggest that food and drink prices rose by 2.5% on the month.

• Further comment: see premium email.

Other Covid news:

• The Scottish Government is advising operators who took advantage of a ‘relaxation’ in planning and building rules for outdoor areas to apply for consent as the ‘grace period’ ends in September.

Company & other news:

• Inception Group, an 11-strong bar chain, says recovery for its central London sites will ‘take months if not years to get back to where they were’ as tourism would take a while to return and offices could be slow to reach full occupancy.

• Ready Burger has raised £2m in its first funding round on Crowdcube, with ‘ambitious’ plans to roll out restaurants nationally and internationally. The Vegan burger restaurant currently has one site in London.

• Surrey-based Hogs Back Brewery will honour its pre-tournament pledge to give away pints of their Euros beer Three Hogs as a result of the England team reaching the final. CEO Rupert Thompson says ‘we are delighted to find that we underestimated the England side’s skill, determination and, yesterday at least, luck. Every free pint will be served across our bar with a broad smile.’

• Evolution. Sainsbury’s has decided to stop selling CDs and DVDs. It says that customers are going for music and films online.

PARTIAL TRAVEL FREEDOMS RESTORED:

• Transport secretary Grant Shapps has confirmed that fully-vaccinated  travellers will no longer have to self-isolate on arrival into England from amber list countries from July 19. However, they  will still be required to take a pre-departure test three days before they travel and a PCR test on day two of their arrival.

• CEO of Abta, Mark Tanzer, strongly welcomed the announcement from Grant Shapps, saying ‘Having to quarantine when returning from an amber list country has been a very significant barrier to travel for many people…We know there is significant pent-up demand to travel abroad – to see family and friends, make business connections and have a well-deserved holiday.’

• However, CEO of UKinbound, Joss Croft, said the announcement ‘does nothing for the UK’s inbound visitor economy. By keeping Britain closed, we are losing £70m a day in exports, businesses are on the brink, our cities remain empty and viable businesses are prevented from even beginning their recovery.’

• John Lundgren, CEO of EasyJet, welcomed the announcement, but caveated it by saying ‘Expensive testing could sadly make travel out of reach for some’ and that he did not want to see ‘a return to flying being a preserve of the rich’.

• Jet2.com and Jet2holidays will restart flights and holidays to 40 green and amber list destinations from 19 July. On the Beach, on the other hand, will not sell holidays until 1 September. On the Beach says it is celebrating the relaxation with caution ‘since we need to bear in mind that it is not just the UK government that can decide on how easy it is to go on holiday – British holidaymakers’ plans are also reliant on the policies in our holiday destinations too, and extensive testing requirements remain in place for customers travelling in both directions.’

• Other airlines have also reported a surge in bookings after the announcement. EasyJet said flight bookings from to amber list destinations were up 400% vs last week. British Airways reported a 96% increase in website views. Air Partner also reported a ‘a surge in enquiries’.

• The Department for Transport is to raise capacity limits to 50% for cruise ships operating domestic cruises with fully vaccinated passengers on board.

OTHER HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS:

• Iata reports total demand for air travel in May 2021 was down 62.7% compared to May 2019 and there was a 65.2% decline recorded in April 2021 versus April 2019. The body said the recovery of international airline travel continues to be ‘stymied by extensive government travel restrictions’.

• Research commissioned by travel insurance provider Battleface shows around 40% of Britons are planning to splash cash saved up during the Covid-19 pandemic on holidays. More than a third (38%) of adults reported that their next international holiday was planned for 2022, with 28% looking at 2023.

• Sheffield-based Kanoo Travel has ceased trading, with the company previously reporting  losses of £421,000 on revenues of £5.3 million in 2019. 

• Manchester Airport Group reports an 89.4% fall in passenger numbers last year, down to 6.3 million in the year to 31 March compared to 59.6m in the prior period. The company suffered a loss of £170.1m against a profit of £377.6m a year earlier.

• Chestnut Farm Holiday Park near York predicts a summer staycation boom with its collection of new residential lodges.

• Embrace Travel Group has taken over Prestige Holidays for an undisclosed sum.

OTHER LEISURE:

• Entertain is doubling its investment in its in-house games studios in order to provide customers with new and exclusive products and experiences. Headcount will double to around 300 people across Entain’s three in-house studios in the UK, Italy, and India within a year.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

• The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, has suggested that an 8% rise in the state pension next year might not be fair. He told the BBC a decision on pensions would be “based on fairness for pensioners and for taxpayers”. The triple lock – at whatever the cost – has been an election commitment for the Tory Party for the last several elections.

• Bloomberg reports on a number of industry surveys that suggest wage inflation is picking up in the U.K. after tighter migration rules and the pandemic reduced the pool of foreign workers.

• Further comment: see premium email.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• Nick is taking a well-earned break. He’s back on Monday.

TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:

Upcoming results are set out below:

• 5 Jul 21 Markit Services PMI

• 7 Jul 21 JD Wetherspoon pre-close FY trading update

• 7 Jul 21 Ten Entertainment H1 trading update

• 8 Jul 21 Fuller’s FY numbers

• 8 Jul 21 Deliveroo H1 trading update

• 8 Jul 21 Jet2 FY numbers

• 8 Jul 21 Entain H1 trading update

• 13 Jul 21 Pepsi Q2 numbers

• 13 Jul 21 DP Poland H1 update & presentation

• 14 Jul 21 DP Eurasia H1 trading update

• 20 Jul 21 Young & Co AGM

• 21 Jul 21 Loungers FY numbers

• 21 Jul 21 Nichols H1 numbers

• 23 Jul 21 Premier Foods AGM & Q1 update

• 27 Jul 21 Campari H1 numbers

• 27 Jul 21 Games Workshop FY numbers

• 28 Jul 21 Marston’s Q3 trading update

• 29 Jul 21 Texas Roadhouse Q2 numbers

• 30 Jul 21 DPP AGM

• 3 Aug 21 Domino’s Pizza H1 numbers

• 5 Aug 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

• 10 Aug 21 Intercontinental Hotels H1 numbers

• 11 Aug 21 Deliveroo H1

• 12 Aug 21 TUI Q3 numbers

• 18 Aug 21 Carlsberg H1 numbers

• 19 Aug 21 Rank FY numbers

• 2 Sept 21 Jet2 AGM

• 22 Sept 21 Ten Entertainment H1 numbers

• 1 Oct 21 JW Wetherspoon

• 22 Oct 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q3 numbers

• 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers

• 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers

LANGTON CAPITAL: Made in Hull. Like all the best things. Langton Capital is a financial advisory company providing insightful views on the UK and global leisure industry and the wider consumer sector in general. Subscription to the daily email is free. Unsubscribing is painless. We provide daily off the shelf and bespoke research. We have helped with transactions, fund-raisings, disposals and other corporate issues. We have a good ear, we are impartial, independent and not half bad at what we do. If you think that we could help you or your business, drop us a line.