Pubs code, footfall, delivery, stock outages, WFH, tax rises & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Try as we might, we can’t get away from our DNA.

That’s kept us from joining the 99% of living organisms that are extinct but it can be manipulated as those social media guys that came up with the Like button and others such as the blue circle, green circle etc when you’ve got messages etc, know only too well.

Because, whether you try to rise above it or not, you get a little buzz from the above and, in the way that schoolkids of old may have looked at Wisden (remember that?) or those FA books that came out at the end of the season that were full of stats, you can now look at your statistics on your various social media networks and boy, that’s a giant rabbit hole if ever there was one.

Indeed, it can mean that you fail to see the wood for the trees and, though both content and marketing are important, there’s a reason why Harry Kane is worth more than the shirt he wears and that’s the way it should be.

Anyway, we’re grinding to the end of a long-feeling short week. Have a good weekend and on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

• The British Beer & Pub Association reports that it yesterday submitted its response to the Consultation on proposals to amend the Pubs Code. It says that, whilst ‘pubs across the nation have suffered during the pandemic, it has also demonstrated the strengths of the leased & tenanted model and in particular the partnership between the pub owning company and tenant or lessee.’ The BBPA says the help provided by property owners ‘shows that the leased and tenanted model is working well and that at this time wholesale changes to the Code which could undermine the relationship between pub company and tenant or lessee would be unnecessary and obstructive.’

• The BBPA says ‘through the pandemic, pub-owning companies provided £285 million in reduced or cancelled rent to tenants who couldn’t trade because of lockdowns, or whose trade was reduced because of restrictions.’ It says ‘risk and reward is shared between tenant & lessee and pub company’ and ‘a pub company will still give significant support to a tenant or lessee to help them run and grow their business.’

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• UKH’s Kate Nicholls comments in City AM that al fresco dining should be left on the menu for operators in London. City AM says ‘the extension, and proposed permanent retention, of streamlined pavement licensing was something we heartily welcomed when it was announced back in July. Since then, it has proved a lifeline for hospitality venues all over London and the country.’ It says that supportive measures going forward would include ‘measures such as facilitating pavement licences at a local level.’

• Springboard reports that footfall to shopping destinations were 18.6% lower than in August 2019, with bricks-and-mortar retailers still struggling to recover. However, August’s footfall level was 20% ahead of what was seen in summer last year. Diane Wehrle, marketing and insights director at Springboard, said ‘Brits chose to stay home for the summer which gave a welcome boost to high streets’. However, central London continued to suffer from the lack of office workers and overseas tourists with shopping visits down by 38% on 2019.

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Delivery trends:

• In California, assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez proposed legislation that would require food delivery companies to provide customers and restaurants with itemized cost breakdowns of third-party fees and commissions charged on each transaction. Gonzalez said ‘We’ve seen reports of restaurant owners losing money on food delivery app orders because of hidden fees from companies like DoorDash, UberEats and GrubHub’.

Shortages & pricing:

• Coca-Cola Europacific is facing supply chain pressure as it reported a shortage of aluminium cans and a squeeze on lorry driver numbers.

• The HGV driver shortage will inevitably lead to price rises, according to the boss of Iceland, with almost 50,000 drivers leaving the roads in the last two years.

• The Times reports that the shortage of workers is worsening saying that ‘employers created almost 200,000 new jobs last week as the struggle to secure workers continued to weigh on businesses.’ The paper is quoting comments made by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, which said that a further 193,000 vacancies were posted online, taking the total number of active, in its estimation, up to 1.66 million. It says ‘the figures suggest that recruitment challenges will persist.’ European Union workers leaving Britain during the pandemic and high levels of economic inactivity, as well as the furlough scheme, mean that the pool of workers is diminished.

• JDW chairman Tim Martin has said that “strenuous efforts” are being made to link beer shortages with Brexit. The company has recently been suffering from a lack of some beer brands across a number of pubs. Mr Martin says the beer shortage is due to industrial action at the breweries and warehouses that would normally be responsible for the company’s supplies.

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Demand – driven by the money in your pocket:

• In what will be another breach of his party’s 2019 election manifesto, the PM is expected to bow to pressure and announce a rise in national insurance payments to fund social care per The Times and The Daily Telegraph. Health Secretary Sajid Javid is pushing for a 2% increase while Chancellor Rishi Sunak is arguing against any increase of more than 1%. Either number would take money out of the pockets of would-be consumers.

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The future of working from home?

• The Telegraph quotes a KPMG survey that says ‘bosses of the world’s biggest companies have dramatically changed their minds about the future of the office, with four in five saying they have no plans to cut their companies’ physical footprint post-pandemic.’

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• On the other hand, the public sector is also a big employer and Treasury civil servants in the UK have been ‘told they can work from home forever’. The story, interestingly also reported by the Telegraph, says the ‘proposals are an embarrassment for Rishi Sunak, who has championed the drive to get private sector staff back to their desks.’

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Company & other news:

• The British Retail Consortium says that food manufacturing in the UK is under such strain due to staff shortages that some production may have to move out of the country. The group warned that Christmas would be ‘incredibly challenging’.

• Diageo has opened the Johnnie Walker visitor experience, allowing tourists to visit an eight-floor attraction for the world’s best-selling Scotch whisky, in Princes Street, Edinburgh.

• Taco Bell plans to open a second Nottingham city centre restaurant, with this one located in the Victoria Centre shopping mall. 

• Nespresso is reported to be trialling drone delivery of coffee capsules to some customers in Tel Aviv-Jaffa, Israel.

• Dutch Bros Coffee has filed for an IPO with the SEC in New York. Bloomberg has suggested that the company could be worth as much as $3bn. The company is the fourth largest coffee-focused chain in the US, behind Starbucks, Dunkin’ and Tim Hortons. It has around 470 stores in 11 states.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS:

• Growing consumer confidence and sales over the bank holiday weekend have been driven by the latest traffic light update, adding seven countries to the green list. Steve Cox, sales manager at Premier Travel, reported an increase in bookings, said ‘Forty-five per cent of last week’s business converted on the Friday and Saturday’.

• Independent data showed that the number of UK holidaymakers to Spain fell 40% this summer due to Covid travel restrictions, with international arrivals into Spain in July and August half of pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

• Figures from the International Air Transport Association show that demand for air travel showed ‘significant momentum’ in July but remained far below pre-pandemic levels (down 53.1%). Willie Walsh, Iata’s director-general, said ‘Domestic traffic was back to 85% of pre-crisis levels, but international demand has only recovered just over a quarter of 2019 volumes.’

• Holiday park developer Actually Parks is working with industry consultancy Sutton Hospitality to deliver a new lodge project near the village of Wombleton which will see 29 new lodges built.   

OTHER LEISURE:

• WhatsApp has been fined €225m by Ireland’s data watchdog for breaching privacy regulations, relating to an investigation about whether WhatsApp had been transparent enough about how it handles information. WhatsApp said it disagrees with the decision, and the severity of the fine, and plans to appeal.

• Reuters reports that Reddit is looking to hire investment bankers and lawyers for an initial public offering in New York. It says the company was valued at $10bn in a private fundraising round last month. Quoting one of the sources, it mentions an intended IPO valuation of ‘more than $15bn’. The company makes money through advertising and reported $100m in such revenue in Q2, up almost threefold on the same quarter in 2020.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

• Sterling stronger at $1.383 and €1.1645. Oil higher at $72.98. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 0.68%. World markets broadly better yesterday but Far East down in Friday trade & London set to open down around a point as at 7am.

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