Labour issues, supply, Loungers, Domino’s, holiday market & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Langton took the plunge the other day and bought a new keyboard.

That because the letters had rubbed off the one we were using and not knowing you’re A’s from your elbow is a bit of a no-no when it comes to getting your facts straight.

And the final straw was when the C’s and the V’s wore out because, as anyone familiar with keyboard commands will know, there’s quite a difference between Ctrl C and Ctrl V and it can give a whole new meaning to a document if, before a word such as ‘important’, instead of copying the word ‘extremely’ you post into the document the word ‘not’.

So, that might be fifteen quid well spent. And yes, we could have got a whizzier one but, given the coffee splashes and the hammer it’s already getting, what would be the point? On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Labour: Fourth has reported that the number of EU workers employed in hospitality has dropped further with Brits filling more roles. It says its latest figures ‘reveal that British workers are filling greater numbers of jobs in pubs, restaurants and hotels than ever before.’ It says ‘this trend has been consistent over the last six months, where the number of British workers in the sector has increased markedly, while the proportion of workers from the European Union (EU) has decreased, accelerated by disruption caused by the pandemic, changes to immigration policy and travel restrictions.’

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Fourth adds ‘given the current climate, where labour shortages are continuing to prove incredibly challenging for operators, it’s clear there is a war for talent taking place in the hospitality sector. Vacancy rates are running at record levels and it’s evident the pool of EU workers has significantly reduced. Technology and digital solutions play an important role in navigating these waters, helping operators hire, onboard, engage and retain team members. Businesses will ultimately have to be smart with their labour scheduling strategies to ensure consumer demand continues to be met and the guest experience doesn’t suffer.’

Supply. The government has admitted that only 20 visas have been issued to HGV drivers from abroad. The UK needs perhaps 100,000. Oliver Dowden says there have been 300 applications but only the 20 have been processed. Perhaps there was a problem with deliveries.

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The government is to allow temporary visas to foreign butchers in what the Guardian has said is its latest Brexit U-turn. Environment secretary, George Eustice, says this will ‘help us to deal with the backlog of pigs that we currently have on farm, give those meat processors the ability to slaughter more pigs, and crucially as well we are going to make available what is called private storage aid to help those abattoirs to temporarily store that meat.’

Working from home. Human resources firm Randstad says that one in six workers say they are working from home because they haven’t been able to buy petrol. This is, we would venture to say, laughable. Did the dog also eat the homework?

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Demand in the US. The NRA has suggested that ‘pent up demand’ could support restaurant revenues in the face of significant economic headwinds.

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Business rates. No change in the short term. The Telegraph reports that this month’s Budget is set to only reveal smaller scale tweaks after plans for a major overhaul of the business rates system have been shelved.

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Reports in The Daily Telegraph suggest Chancellor Rishi Sunak will be delaying a reform of the business rates system.

Lightspeed’s Global State of the Hospitality Industry Report reports that 37% of UK restaurant operators are trading with less staff than they need.

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The spending limit on contactless cards has risen from £45 to £100. However, consumers can reduce the limit on their own cards (if they are concerned about card loss or theft) and each shop can decide whether or not to accept the higher amount. Around 60% of debit and credit card transactions in the UK were contactless this year when the limit was £45. The number of contactless transactions in the country has increased by a factor of six since 2012.

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Loungers has updated on trading for the 24 weeks ended 3 October 2021 saying that the operator, which now has 150 Lounge cafe-bars and 31 Cosy Club restaurant-bars, has continued to outperform. It says ‘our significant outperformance of the market in the period post the commencement of indoor trading on 17 May 2021 has been maintained. Over the 20 weeks to 3 October 2021, the Group delivered like for like sales growth of 26.6%, using the period 20 May to 6 October 2019 as the comparator. Whilst trading and the reported like for like sales uplift benefit from the VAT reduction, the continued strength of performance is testimony to the relevance and resilience of our brands.’

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Compass Group has made a global commitment to reach Climate Net Zero by 2050. It says ‘the Group’s Net Zero target makes Compass the first international company in the contract catering industry to announce a global commitment to a 2050 net zero emissions economy. It includes ambitious emissions reduction targets over the next decade.’

Domino’s Pizza plans to hire 8,000 drivers in the run-up to Christmas – but acknowledged that employers are finding hiring tough. The company reported LfL sales up 8.8% in Q3 to £375.8m.

In the US, brand owner Domino’s Inc has reported that same store sales slipped in Q3 for the first time in 41 quarters. The company says ‘we certainly saw staffing levels were lower than in the first half of the year and impact on comps was more pronounced in Q3 than Q2.’ It adds ‘we’re working on a number of operational improvements inside of our stores to operate more efficiently with less labour for every order that goes out.’

Sky reports it has seen government documents telling ministers that Britain should prioritise economic growth over environmental protections in trade deals. It says ‘environmental safeguards should also not be treated as a red line when other countries demand they are broken in trade agreements, according to the paper drawn up by officials in the Department for International Trade.’

Hospitality industry leaders  say many former staff have left the industry to find work elsewhere after originally being furloughed. Kate Nicholls, CEO of UK Hospitality, said ‘the vacancy rate is currently 10 per cent, pre-covid it was 5 per cent. It has never been as acute as this in my 30 years of working in the industry.’

Matthew Clark and Bibendum will be putting prices up by 3.5% from November, due to supply chain pressures alongside a hike in labour costs and fuel prices.

Loungers has reached 150 sites as it opens the Arboro Lounge in Ringwood’s The Furlong Shopping Centre in Hampshire. Loungers has also lined up an opening in Maidenhead before the end of the year.

Costa Coffee, now owned by Coca-Cola, has entered the Belgian market with a premium self-service coffee concept designed for hospitality venues.

Amazon is offering £3,000 to new staff in Devon to combat the growing number of unfilled job vacancies in the South West. The bonus will be alongside the hourly pay of anywhere between £10-£20 an hour and is open until the end of October.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

ABTA CEO Mark Tanzer has said that many travel firms remain “perilously close to the cliff edge” due to the coronavirus pandemic. The crisis is by no means over. Tanzer says that businesses “urgently” need further help from the chancellor. Mr Tanzer told ABTA’s annual convention that ‘international travel has been forced into a mini-ice age.’ He says ‘two summers and one-and-a-half winters have been written off, and only now are we starting to see the thaw. It’s too early to speak of recovery, and I’m acutely aware of how many of our members are still perilously close to the cliff edge.’ He says that it will take time and money for travel to get back on its feet.

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Tui will resume holidays to Cape Verde, Jamaica, Egypt, Mexico and Turkey before the end of the month. However, Tui flights to Cuba remain cancelled until October 21 despite the country being removed from the red list.

BTN Europe reports its has seen data shows bookings to the US jump more than 50% on the preceding week after the change in US govt policy. Travel Counsellors’ corporate bookings for travel between the UK and US was up by 255% compared to week one.

OTHER LEISURE:

Per Sky, Pure Gym is close to abandoning a £1.5bn stock market listing as investors appear to lose confidence. Leonard Green & Partners’ decision on whether to shelve the IPO could come as soon as this week. The Times reports this morning that ‘Britain’s biggest gym operator is expected to consider alternatives for raising new capital amid suggestions that it may pull its proposed initial public offering.’ The co may be considering a short delay or a change of direction.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Institute of Directors has told City AM that imposing punitive tax hikes on businesses will blow the UK economic recovery off course. Chief economist Kitty Ussher says ‘our economy is now within sight of its pre-pandemic size. To maintain an upward path, particularly as government support is phased out, it’s crucial that businesses should now have the confidence to invest.’

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Inflation. China is the workshop of the world and its producer price index is going up at an annualised 10.7%. US inflation is at recent highs. The oil price is at 8yr highs, there is upward pressure on interest rates, petrol in the UK is at 3yr highs and distribution wages are on the up. Boparan says food inflation is 10% and that food in the UK is ‘too cheap.’ As mentioned previously, the Bank of England needs two Nelsonian eye-patches not to see this big an elephant in the room.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has said that bidding wars are breaking out in the property market. it says a net 68 per cent of respondents said that they were seeing prices rise, although this was down from the peak of 82 per cent in May. A net 21 per cent expected that prices would be higher in three months’ time than at present.

The IMF suggests that higher interest rates could put a damper on house prices. You reckon?

Sterling up a little at $1.3686 and €1.1788. Oil higher at $84.66. UK 10yr gilt yield down 5bps at 1.05%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open around 22pts higher as at 6.45am.

French finance minister Bruno Le Maire has told the BBC that leaving the single market after Brexit has made the supply chain crisis worse for the UK. He says other countries are facing similar problems but the level of disruption in the UK is greater than it is in other countries.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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