More on YNGA, labour and supply issues, M&B, SSP & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I was considering question marks yesterday and how they can provide something of a get out of jail card if you’re making slightly contentious suggestions.

Like ‘Is Company X Running Out of Cash? It’s just a question, gov. we wouldn’t suggest testing it but that little bit of punctuation could keep away the solicitor’s letters.

Not that we would condone wanton speculation but (credit here journo Jon Sopel and others), the question mark is often used by headline writers who are then derided by rivals as posing ‘Questions To Which The Answer Is No’.

Known as QTWTAIN, these include headlines such as Did Aliens Build the Pyramids? Was Jack the Ripper a Woman? Does Eating Weetabix Improve Your Golf? Or Did Adolf Hitler Invent the Birdie Dance?

But there are also serious ‘questions’ (a.k.a. crazy speculative comments) including Daily Mail – Do Aliens Live 17 Miles Above Us? The Independent – Is Biden Blocking The JFK Assassination Files Over Hidden Bombshells? Wired – Could The Moon Actually Crash Towards Earth? And here’s one from the BBC just this morning: Would the World be Better if it was run by Teenagers?

And there are lots more. Check out Betteridge’s Law of Headlines as it’s very similar.

Anyway, it’s Friday so, let’s move on to the news and, thereafter, have a great weekend.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Labour issues:

The FT points out that ‘against all expectations, the UK jobs market is booming, with more than 1m vacancies.’ It goes on to analyse ONS data to split this down. It says hospitality is second only to health and social care in the rankings of staff shortfalls with vacancies of around 134,000 positions. Even with the move to online shopping, retail is short a further 90,000.

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Supply issues:

Lynx Purchasing has said ‘hospitality operators can avoid nasty surprises this Christmas, in the form of unexpected food and drink shortages, through better buying discipline and close communication with suppliers.’ Lynx has published its Autumn / Winter Market Update. It says ‘the challenge in the supply chain currently as that as soon as one gap is plugged, another one opens somewhere else.’

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CGA reports that the UK hospitality industry is yet to recover to pre-Covid trading levels. It says that sales in restaurants, bars and hotels are still 10% below 2019 figures despite increased spend per head. Footfall is significantly down. JDW yesterday said that it was proving challenging getting older customers back into its pubs. CGA says that sales in the on-trade (including restaurants) was 73% of the 2019 level over the three months to the end of September.

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YOUNG & CO – H1 ANALYSTS’ MEETING:

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Mitchells & Butlers has partnered with Uber Eats to allow customers to order food from around 1,000 of its venues on the app.

The Morning Advertiser reports that the RedCat Pub Company has acquired Suffolk site ‘the Turks Head’ in Hasketon bringing RedCat’s estate to 77. At the beginning of 2021, Rooney Anand raised £200m to invest in Britain’s pub sector.

The Guardian reports that Uber is to increase its rates by 10% in London as it tries to attract drivers back onto its platform. Calls for taxis have risen in the UK by almost 20%, and Uber will need about 20,000 more drivers to return to usual service levels. Whether customers will be prepared to pay more for their journeys remains to be seen.

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SSP Group is reported to have won a $200m contract to open 34 food & beverage outlets at Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok, Thailand. It says ‘the decision to extend our investment with this new venture at Suvarnabhumi Airport demonstrates our commitment to the Thailand SSP business and to continuing our extensive partnership with both Minor and King Power. It is also testament to our confidence in the robustness of Thailand’s economy coming out of Covid.’ SSP opened its first food court in Don Mueang International airport, Bangkok, in 1995. It has since expanded operations across Thailand’s major airports.

Grosvenor Britain & Ireland (GBI) has signed Gordon Ramsay’s modern European restaurant, Bread Street Kitchen & Bar at Liverpool ONE, a 195-cover restaurant featuring an extensive bar area.

Delivery Hero reported revenue up 89% YoY to €1.8bn in Q3, with the company processing 791 million orders, up 52% YoY.

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Beyond Meat forecasts Q4 revenue below estimates, as the company reported a slowing demand in both grocery stores and restaurants.

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Panera Brands in the US has filed documents saying that it intends to IPO.

The British Honey Company, which produces craft spirits as well as premium British Honey and is listed on the AQUIS market, has announced that ‘Mark Jones has joined the Company as interim CEO, below PLC board level and has made an immediate impact in tightening up our operations and structuring the senior management team to take advantage of sales and growth opportunities.’ It says ‘we have observed a keen interest, across our customer base, in our white label business, where customers wish to work with us so that we can provide a dependable source of product. This is opening up exciting new sales opportunities.’ Regarding trading, chairman Richard Day says ‘we are entering a traditionally busy period in our trading calendar, in keeping with the rest of the spirits and drinks industry and we are trading well.’ It believes the full year outturn will be in line with management
expectations.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Travel Chapter has postponed its IPO plans, citing market volatility. The company uses a platform to connect a supplier base of property owners with their customers via its flagship brand holidaycottages.co.uk.

The UK Foreign Office is advising Brits to check their passport is stamped as they travel to Europe as they are only allowed to travel to countries in the Schengen area for up to 90 days in any 180-day period without a visa. Travel Weekly reports that ‘next year, Brits travelling to the Schengen countries of Europe will have to apply for a visa costing €7 (about £6) when the European Travel Information and Authorisation System comes into force by the end of 2022.’

STR reports that U.S. hotel performance increased slightly last week (to 6 Nov) with occupancy at 59.8% (down 13.0% on 2019) and average daily rate of $128.14 (down 3.2%). This leads to REVPAR of $76.61 (down 15.8%)

Olly Brendon, chief executive of ATD Travel Services, said transatlantic bookings were 40% higher than average for November on Monday. Brendon said ‘I am confident that demand for 2022 and 2023 will remain strong.’

Yesterday, Heathrow reported that over 3 million passengers travelled through the airport during October, marking six consecutive months of growth. Despite signs of recovery, passenger levels remain 56% down on pre-pandemic levels.

PPHE Hotel Group has completed the acquisition of the 4-star Londra & Cargill Hotel in a prime central location in the city of Rome. The hotel is expected to be relaunched in early 2023.

A survey from American Express Meetings & Events has found that about two-thirds of surveyed meeting and event professionals expect in-person meeting levels to return to their pre-pandemic numbers within two years.

The UK hotel market has rebounded during the summer months of 2021, with the positive momentum continuing into the autumn, according to analysis from Knight Frank.

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS reported yesterday that UK GDP rose by 1.3% in the July-September quarter. There is a lot of noise around this but, in brief, the quarterly number is a little below the estimate of 1.5%. Within the quarter, July was weaker than previously thought (actually registering a decline) and September was good.

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Sterling was trading at 10mth lows against the dollar yesterday. This and growing inflationary signals are likely to keep up the pressure for an interest rate rise. The Bank of England’s MPC next meets on 16 December. It may not deliver the sort of Christmas present that borrowers would like to receive.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has said that house prices are likely to continue to rise over the next year. It says ‘although the mood music around interest rates does appear to be shifting, for now the stronger influence on the housing market is the ongoing imbalance between demand and supply.’ Rising interest rates may, over time, counteract this.

Sterling weaker at $1.3368 and €1.168. Oil down at $82.27. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 0.92%. World markets broadly better yesterday and UK set to open around level as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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