November Tracker, indicators, Plan B, labour, travel & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Resolving a query these days can be frustrating as so few circulars (or even websites) have phone numbers on them.

This leaves you looking at the FAQs online or, worse still, flinging questions at a bot, which will often be as charmless as it is unhelpful.

Furthermore, if you’re bold enough to eschew the help of some cretinous AI, you can easily end up in a death-loop where you run the risk of dying of starvation whilst trying to answer a simple question or, indeed, to just get off the page you’re on and onto one that may be more useful.

And there’s an apparently bottomless pit of junk out there.

We were told a decade or more ago that the FSA, as it was then, had 10,000 pages of what it laughably called ‘information’ on its website and, given the body’s proclivity to churn out yet more, it’s probably more than doubled since then.

Anyway, it’s Friday, the weekend’s almost upon us’ have a good one and let’s move on to the news:

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NOVEMBER SALES TRACKER:

The November Coffer CGA Business Tracker says that groups’ total sales were up 2% in November – but it adds that concerns were mounting ‘over COVID-19 measures impacting [the] fragile recovery.’ The sales data were collected before Wednesday’s move to Plan B.

Overall position:

• The Tracker reports that ‘Britain’s managed pub, bar and restaurant groups recorded tentative sales growth in November…but with the news of restrictions due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19, and supply and staffing issues all rising, Christmas trading is under severe pressure.’

• It says that total sales were 2% up on the pre-pandemic level seen in November 2019. It says pubs & bars were up 3% with restaurants up 2%. The Tracker confirms that November was the fourth month in a row that 2021 sales exceeded those recorded before the pandemic in the equivalent month in 2019.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Plan B – calls for compensation:

Business leaders are calling for the return of furlough and other emergency financial support schemes after work from home orders in England were imposed by the government. Frances O’Grady, general secretary of the TUC, said ‘Requiring people to work from home over the busy Christmas period will hit jobs – unless ministers bring back furlough…Ministers must reassure workers in hard-hit sectors like hospitality, leisure and travel that their livelihoods are secure.’

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Leisure shares slipped yesterday although not perhaps by as much as might have been feared. Larger venues will need to cater for 500 people or more before vaccine passports are required and masks are not mandatory in pubs & restaurants. Travel, as has become the norm, is perhaps most-impacted but, even here, most of the damage was done when travel restrictions including pre-departure testing rules were brought in last week.

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The Press has focused on cancellations, calls for more financial help, football matches and nightclubs. The Guardian says that nightclubs face higher costs and cancellations at what should be their busiest time of year. It quotes Rekom CEO Peter Marks as saying that the group would need to hire about three extra security staff at each venue to implement the measures, which make proof of two Covid vaccine doses or a negative lateral flow test mandatory for entry to nightclubs.

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Labour shortages:

A City Hall report into London’s night-time economy has found that 1-in-5 bouncers have left the security industry and staff levels were at 80% compared to pre coronavirus levels. A YouGov survey found that three out of four adults wanted improved safety measures in pubs, bars, and nightclubs as a significant number felt less safe on licensed premises then, in comparison to March 2020.

Labour issues are not confined to the UK. In the US, forgive the spelling but the Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS report) has concluded that there remains an abnormally high number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs and there has been a steady decline in layoffs.

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Trends:

Per Lumina Intelligence, the latest consumer trends have seen 72% of consumers actively cutting down on food waste, 46% buying more locally sourced food and 35% encouraging friends and family to reduce food waste. Lumina also found that 1-in-4 choose restaurants and pubs because they have strong sustainability initiatives.

Inflation:

The BCC is looking for 5.2% inflation in the UK next spring. China has reported a PPI (producer price index) of 12.9% in November. This is down a tad on October’s number but it does show that the Workshop of the World is facing higher prices – and it is certain to pass these along.

Public Health Scotland has advised Scots to cancel Christmas parties as it believes a number of outbreaks of the Omicron strain of Covid have been linked to such gatherings.

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The High Street: MPs on the levelling up, housing and communities committee are to publish a report today calling for a review of how the government’s pandemic policies have impacted the high street. Chairman Clive Betts says ‘the Covid-19 pandemic dramatically changed our high streets almost overnight, with the pandemic accelerating existing consumer trends and introducing new ones.’

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Israeli company MeaTech 3D has produced the largest lab-grown steak yet, weighing in at nearly 4oz (110 grams). The company said it aimed to produce cultured meat at the same cost as conventional meat. But the steaks will not appear on diners’ plates soon. 

The Restaurant Group will source all of its directly controlled supplies of electricity, gas and LPG used in its Wagamama, Pubs and Leisure divisions from renewables. The move is a key part of TRG’s sustainability strategy and roadmap to achieving carbon Net Zero by 2035. 

Oakman Group has updated on the year saying that ‘although no one of us would claim that 2021 was an easy year, it is one that we will end much stronger than when we started. To put this into context, we’ve added 9 new sites to the estate, consistently traded ahead of the market and welcomed almost 600 new investors to the Oakman family.’

Staff at a Starbucks sit in Buffalo, N.Y., USA have voted in favour of becoming the first unionised Starbucks store in the country.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Manchester Airport Group warned that the Omicron variant and restrictions threaten to delay international travel recovery, calling on government to carry out an urgent review of its new travel restrictions.

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IATA  is demanding governments follow WHO advice and rescind travel bans introduced. Willie Walsh, Iata director-general, said ‘After nearly two years with Covid-19 we know a lot about the virus and the inability of travel restrictions to control its spread…It is unacceptable that rushed decisions have created fear and uncertainty among travellers’.

IHG Hotels & Resorts has partnered with JJW Hotels & Resorts to launch the Vignette Collection in Europe, with signings in Portugal and Austria.

The UK’s meetings and events industry has called for targeted government support as NHS Covid Passes are set to be required in nightclubs, unseated indoor venues with more than 500 people, unseated outdoor venues with more than 4,000 people and any venue with more than 10,000 people. 

TfL reports that Night Tube services in London will be disrupted again this weekend, as drivers strike in a dispute over new rosters.

OTHER LEISURE:

Deloitte predicts that the games console market will generate £60.6bn in 2022, while NFTs for sports media will generate £1.5bn. Theo Ajadi, consultant in the Sports Business Group at Deloitte, said ‘The 2021–2022 season could be the first in which NFTs start to make a major mark from a revenue perspective and by 2023 it is likely that most major football leagues in Europe will have launched multiple NFT related products.’

Games Workshop will give its staff bonuses of £2,500 for ‘exceptional contribution’ to its trading performance. Shares in the company were down 6% as it announced that it expects sales and profits on a par with last year.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The British Chambers of Commerce says that weaker consumer spending and slower trade will reduce economic growth in the UK next year. The BCC is still looking for 4.2 per cent next year, but this represents a downward revision from its earlier forecast of 5.2 per cent growth. The BCC expects inflation to hit 5.2% next spring.

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Barclays Corporate Banking has said that UK manufacturing exports will total around £176bn this year and could rise to £190bn by 2030. Barclays says that 69% of manufacturing firms with more than 10 employees are currently exporting some of their output.

Sterling stronger at $1.3219 and €1.1699. Oil price lower at $74.05. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 0.76%. World markets lower yesterday and London set to open some 30 points lower as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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