JDW, more on ROO, delivery, inflation, Burger King & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I was wondering the other day, just how frequently do pedestrians fall down holes, walk into trees or lampposts or stumble into traffic because they are typing on their phones?

Of course the latter is something that the least lucky maybe only get to do once but, judging by the proportion of people who are tapping away – or maybe reading a book, checking what’s on TV or fathoming out a transport route – there are plenty of candidates for this sort of accident and, given the volumes involved, it’s not clear that anyone’s learning much from any earlier mistakes that they may have made.

So, maybe there will ultimately be a market for pedestrian helmets, shin and elbow pads and the like? Or maybe Mr Blobby costumes, which would have the added benefit that they would scare dogs away and be highly visible to motor cars.

Anyway, that’s quite enough of that. It’s Friday and that’s something to be grateful for. On to the news:

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JD WETHERSPOON – H1 NUMBERS:

JD Wetherspoon has today reported H1 numbers and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers:

• The company reports revenues of £807.4m, down 13.5% on 2020 with LfL sales down 11.8%

• The pre-IFRS16 loss before exceptional items is £26.1m (against a profit in 2020 of £51.6m) with EPS at negative 19.7p against a 39.3p pre-exceptional net profit per share in 2020

• The board is not recommending a dividend and there were no share buybacks during the half year

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DELIVEROO – FULL YEAR CONFERENCE CALL:

Following the release of its full year numbers for calendar 2021, Deliveroo hosted a long and rather detailed webcast for analysts. Whilst the time allocated to questions was somewhat short, our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers:

• Company went through sales metrics (orders up 73%, GTV +70% etc).

• UK & Ireland grew in 2021, despite the reopening of restaurants. Orders were up 73% and GTV up 70%. ROO now reaches the bulk of the UK population. It is still growing in areas where it has a pre-existing presence.

• International. Orders up 74% and GTV up 69%.

• The group has accelerated its Editions rollout, which has been operating for five years. The group opened >100 delivery only kitchens last year. It has over 300 globally.

• On-demand grocery is c8% of GTV. Not sure of the profitability of parts of this business, mentions Hop. Co is ‘really excited’ about the prospect for advertising in this segment

• Co is getting 11,000 rider applications a week with 82% retention (important in a tight labour market). It maintains that it offers riders what they want. It maintains the ‘self-employed’ status is solid.

• Gross profits declined in H2 vs H1 both in the UK & internationally. Co says they picked up during Q4.

• Spend on marketing has increased massively from £359m in 2020 to £629m in 2021. EBITDA losses in H2 were materially higher than those in H1. The H1 loss was 0.8% of GTV. H2 was negative 3.2%.

Path from minus 2% EBIDA margin to positive 4%.

• Basically sales and fees will go up and costs will go down. Slide 29. At least, that’s the plan.

• Marketing is 4% of GTV at present and overheads are 5.5%. The aim is to cut a third of this – either in absolute terms of by raising GTV without hiking costs

Q&A:

• Q1 slow down? Expect ‘low-single digit growth GTV Q4 to Q1 this year’. This should be the slowest quarter of the year.

• Cash burn? In addition to the EBITDA loss, there will be ‘capitalised development costs’. There will be investment in Editions sites.

o Where will cash be at the end of this year? Co declined to say.

• Do your 2026 forecasts require entry into new markets (or exit from existing ones)? No.

• What would your market share be by 2026? Mr Shu says he is interested in profit share, rather than market share. Says ‘there is good market share, and bad market share’.

• Corporate activity? Will Shu says he will concentrate on making money it the company’s specific markets.

• The co says ‘competition remains strong’ but the ‘really blatant, market-share-winning spend has abated somewhat.’

Langton Comment:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Pleas for more support:

The BBPA has called for more support for pubs ahead of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. The BBPA has written to the Chancellor, urging the government to extend the lower VAT rate for food and drinks sold in pubs and the wider hospitality sector with a view to making this permanent. The letter also calls for ‘reducing the disproportionate burden on hospitality businesses through either a permanent specific sector multiplier or a high streets relief, bring forward an Online Sales Tax to offset the cost of pubs’ rates’.

The delivery market:

The latest CGA & Slerp Hospitality at Home Tracker has reported that ‘Britain’s managed restaurant and pub groups’ delivery and takeaway sales continue to run at more than twice the level seen before COVID-19.’ It says, however, the level of trade ‘has dipped from the peaks of early 2021.’ The Tracker shows that groups’ combined delivery and takeaway sales in February were 131% higher than in February 2019. It says ‘growth has been powered by delivery orders, which were nearly four times higher than three years ago.’

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Inflation:

The Bank of England yesterday warned that the inflation squeeze on households will worsen further this autumn as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added to the pressure on energy prices and also on some food staples. The Bank now expects CPI to hit 8% once the impact of the higher energy price cap is felt from next month. It had said 7.25% (and prior to that it was expecting 6%, 5% and, a year or so ago, 2%). The Bank is expecting a further peak, perhaps in October. It says this could be “several percentage points” above what was expected as recently as just last month.

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Other issues:

Zonal’s GO Tech report suggests that 80% of consumers are interested in some form of personalisation when visiting pubs, bars and restaurants. The top 5 most wanted forms of personalisation are; discounts & deals; loyalty schemes; updates; recommendations; VIP perks. Only 9% of those aged 18 to 24 say they have no interest in personalised experiences which is a drastic change to people aged 65 or over where the number soars to 46%.

BREW York has been named the SIBA Brewery Business of the Year 2022. Charles Faram were named SIBA Supplier Associate of the Year 2021.

COMPANY NEWS:

Giggling Squid will be opening its first regional flagship in Cardiff, Wales. The Thai restaurant chain recently added Chelmsford and Welwyn Garden City to its estate as it rolls out to the regions. 

Restaurant Brands, which owns Burger King, has said that its franchise partner in Russia will not close its sites, despite being asked to do so. This illustrates there can be problems in obliging franchisees to take actions that they may consider damages their business on the ground.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Counsellors report ‘surging’ levels of booking with sales of some long-haul destinations now double pre-pandemic figures. The company said sales in the past four weeks were 30% up on 2019, with bookings values up 25% due to remaining Covid restrictions being dropped. The top destinations for leisure travel in April are Spain, the US and the Maldives. For the summer, the US, Greece and Spain continue to be the most-booked destinations.

CWT reports ‘pent-up’ demand for business trips being released as Covid restrictions are removed. CWT’s data showed that weekly bookings for outbound international travel from the UK have risen by 115% since 24 January. The top five outbound markets for UK-based business travellers were the US, Germany, Spain, Ireland and Netherlands.

P&O Ferries has sacked 800 staff, claiming the move was made in a ‘survival’ bid after making a £100 million loss year-on-year. Union RMT said crewmembers were being replaced with cheaper overseas workers. Some crew are defying orders and refusing to leave their ships in protest.

STR reports that the US’s hotel performance increased from the previous week in the week to 12 March. Occupancy was 63.2% (-9.8% vs 2019) and average daily rate was $144.68 (+7.7%, also on 2019). REVPAR was $91.45 (down 2.8% on the same week in 2019). STR reports that ‘while none of the top 25 Markets showed an occupancy increase over 2019, Miami came closest to its 2019 comparable (-4.7% to 84.1%).’

Abta research reveals that 57% of people have an overseas holiday booked over the next 12 months. It says that this is up from the 44% recorded in October last year.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

On an 8-1 vote, the Bank of England yesterday raised UK interest rates (this time from 0.5% to 0.75%) for the third time in 4mths. The Bank says inflation will hit 8% in Q2 and could move higher still in October.

The Bank of England says consumer confidence has ‘fallen in response to the squeeze on real household disposable incomes’.

The BCC comments on the interest rate rise, saying the decision ‘looks ill-timed against a backdrop of growing domestic and global headwinds.’ It says ‘the latest rise will be viewed by many as a further step in a prolonged period of aggressive monetary tightening at a time when consumers and businesses are struggling under a myriad of rising cost pressures.’

The OECD says that the war in Ukraine could cut global economic growth by more than one percentage point in the first year after the invasion. It adds that it could add 2.5pps to global inflation.

Sterling mixed at $1.3164 and €1.1876. Oil sharply higher at $109.35. UK 10yr gilt yield down 7bps (despite the Bank of England move) at 1.57%. Markets mostly higher yesterday and London set to open up by around 13pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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