Yo! Sushi, GAW, private companies, trading, confidence, tax & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Interesting to hear coming back Up North on the LNER train last week that the café bar was being run by the train’s Customer Experience Leader and his side-kick, presumably the First Assistant to the Customer Experience Leader.

This will no doubt remove the curl from the sandwiches.

And it might heat up the tea to acceptable levels and improve staff retention and, even if it doesn’t, it’ll provide a bit more work for whoever prints the bloke’s business cards and provides those natty little badges for him to pin on his uniform.

Not jealous, of course.

And, as they say, if you can’t fight, wear a big hat. It might not change much fundamentally but it does have the power to distract.

Anyway, welcome to the first week of June and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

CGA rep[orts that damp weather negatively impacted drinks sales in early May. It says ‘a turn in the weather left the On Premise struggling for year-on-year growth in the first half of May’. This came after a number of weeks of fair weather. CGA reports that the ‘good run came to a halt in the seven days to 10 May, when sales finished 8% behind the equivalent period in 2024.’ For the next week, to 17 May, sales were up a marginal (and sub-inflation) 0.3%…

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Business confidence:

Variable reports coming through here. That said, the CBI has reported that ‘private sector firms once again expect activity to fall in the three months to August (weighted balance of -30%).’ Its latest Growth Indicator reports that ‘expectations have deteriorated further, and are now at their weakest since September 2022….’

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Disposable income levels

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that difficult decisions re spending and tax are ‘unavoidable’ in the upcoming spending review. It suggests that funding will come under pressure and, at some point, taxes may have to rise further.

Experiential:

The Times reports over the weekend that times and fashions have changed and that many consumers, particularly younger people, are now looking to competitive socialising venues rather than traditional pubs and restaurants…

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Loss-makers:

A new survey conducted by industry bodies including UKH, the British Beer & Pub Association, the British Institute of Innkeeping and Hospitality Ulster has reported that a third of pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels are losing money. Blaming recent tax rises, they say they are subsequently at risk of failure…

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Other news:

Vapes: From yesterday, the sale of single-use vapes has ceased to be legal. The government wars ‘it is also illegal to offer to sell or supply single-use vapes, or to stock single-use vapes that you plan to sell or supply.’

In the US, NRN reports that consumers are ‘pulling back’ on their spend. It reports that this and ‘macroeconomic uncertainty dominated the conversation at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago last week, as restaurants brace for anticipated impacts of fresh tariffs.’

Inheritance tax. A number of business owners have told The Times that changes in inheritance tax could have ‘devastating consequences’ for family-owned businesses. William Lees-Jones, MD at the JW Lees brewery in Manchester, which is now in its seventh generation of family ownership, says ‘people will start going to Switzerland. The last thing they want is for their lifetime’s work to result in a tax bill and people having to sell the business.’

COMPANY NEWS:

Yo! Sushi, which is now part of the Wonderfield Group (formerly Snowfox Group) has reported (somewhat late) full year numbers to end-March 2024 to Companies’ House saying that revenue in the period rose from £84.7m to £138.3m, The company adds that the operating loss widened to £22.1m from £5.4m in the prior year and the loss before tax was £22.6m (2023: £4.7m)…

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S & PB Retail, which operates ‘as a retail bakery chain under the Sayers and Poundbakery brand, managing multiple retail outlets across England and Wales’, has reported numbers for the period to 1 June 2024 to Companies’ House saying that revenue slipped to £41.1m from £43.0m in the prior year. The group reports that it made a loss before tax of £671k compared to a profit of £463m in the prior year…

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Haulfryn Group, which now operates only seven holiday parks, has reported late numbers for the year to end-Jan 2024 to Companies’ House saying that turnover slipped to £30.9m from £31.2m in the prior year. It reports a loss on ordinary activities before tax of £2.5m against a loss in the prior year of £4.0m…

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OTHER LEISURE:

Games Workshop has announced that Neil Tomlinson has been appointed to the Board as Group Operations Director with immediate effect. It points out that Mr Tomlinson joined Games Workshop in February 2018 as Head of Merchandise Planning. He has since held various management roles across the Group, including most recently as the Operational Manufacturing and Supply Chain Director. Prior to Games Workshop, Neil held management positions at J Sainsbury’s and ASDA Walmart.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Last week, a federal appeals court ruled that Donald Trump’s tariffs could remain in place for the time being. The President may have taken heart from this and has announced that he will double steel and aluminium import tariffs to 50 percent from this week. The EU has said it is prepared to retaliate…..

Bloomberg reports that on its measure, the US dollar fell by around about 0.6% in May, making it the longest monthly losing streak in five years.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has felt the need to insist that the U.S. will never default on its debts, despite some recent debt ceiling concerns.

Bank of England MPC member Alan Taylor has said that the current spike in inflation will be temporary and has called for further interest rate cuts. He told the FT that he believes interest rates should be on a ‘lower policy path.’

The Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer reports that business confidence in Scotland is now at higher levels than the average across the UK as a whole. It says that confidence in Scotland rose 12 points during May to 52%.

Sterling mixed at $1.3487 and €1.1871. Oil up at $64.29. Ten year gilt yield unchanged at 4.65%. World markets mostly better in Friday trade but Far East down today. London set to open up around 2 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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