Cost of living, taxation, GDP, Flutter, Templeton, Center Parcs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Training a dog takes skill, determination, a love of canines and almost infinite patience, none of which I have in abundance.

And, when I’ve tried my hand at training, there have always unforeseen consequences which, in almost every case, are more irritating than the training has been useful.

For example, she won’t wait at the front door to be let in.

In fact she won’t come in at all if I haven’t shaken my fist at her.

Because I have to be in the home office, at which time she must wine at the window, bark a bit, see me jab pointedly at the front door, interrupt whatever I’m doing and go to let her in and any deviation from the above means you have to start the process again.

I’m sure that makes perfect sense to her but the ‘jabbing pointedly’ has understandably evolved into an angry fist-shake, which is now firmly established in the routine.

Anyway, just time to say have a great weekend, the weather looks set fair, and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Cost of living:

S&P Global has reported that just under 50% of firms surveyed would absorb cost increases caused by April’s NIC increases. Around 36% said they would cut staff numbers or hours and 9% said they would try to cut wages…

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The consumer:

A report by the Work Foundation has suggested that 17% of workers are currently struggling to pay their bills. It adds that the number of people working second jobs in order to boost their incomes is now at record levels…

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Business confidence:

The ICAEW has reported that a ‘cocktail of costs’ has been responsible for business confidence falling to a three year low. It says that ‘sky high tax worries’ and weaker domestic demand are denting morale….

• ICAEW president Alan Vallance says ‘a cocktail of costs, including the national insurance rise and global instability, has made life especially difficult for businesses across the country, particularly exporters.’ He says ‘constant rumours will only serve to destabilise businesses, so we urge the government to be honest about their plans, to give companies the opportunity to plan ahead and weather the storm.’

Taxation & hospitality:

UKH reports that ‘job losses in the sector are three times higher than the rest of the economy since October 2024.’ It has written to PM Sir Keir Starmer saying that the 2024 Budget directly contributed to a reversal in hospitality’s ability to create jobs. It says ‘between October 2024 and May 2025, the sector lost 69,000 jobs. In the same period the previous year, hospitality created an additional 18,000 jobs….’

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The economy:

The ONS has reported that the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May. It says that manufacturing shrank by 0.9% and construction was 0.6% down. The services sector increased in size by 0.1%. The ONS says ‘the economy contracted slightly in May with notable falls in production and construction only partly offset by growth in services.’ It adds ‘May’s fall in production was driven by oil and gas extraction, car manufacturing and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry….’

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Other news:

The International Coffee Organisation has produced its June 2025 report saying that prices are down by 11.6% in June versus a month earlier. Prices are still up around 30.1% from a year ago.

COMPANY NEWS:

JD Wetherspoon has put a further portfolio of six pubs on the market for disposal. The units are located across England with two in London and four elsewhere.

Manchester-based Templeton Holdings Limited, which operates the San Carlo and Luca Restaurants chains, has reported full year numbers for the period to 28 September 2024 to Companies’ House saying that turnover rose by 1.3% to £78.0m. The company reports Gross Profit up by 2.4% on slightly higher margins but higher admin costs drove operating profit down by around a third to £1.9m. Higher interest costs exacerbated the decline at the PBT line where earnings before tax fell by 44% to £1.5m…

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Racine Restaurants, which operates a number of patisseries, cafes and EL&N (Eat, Live & Nourish) businesses, has reported numbers to Companies’ House for the year to end-June 2024, saying that revenue rose marginally, by 0.7%, to £26.0m with GP down a little on lower margins and operating income swinging to a loss of £5.7m from a profit of £2.2m in the prior year. Interest charges are slightly higher but a profit of £313k on the disposal of a group undertaking limits the increase in losses before tax to a loss of £5.7m from a profit of £2.0m in the prior year. See below for further detail…

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Brakspear has purchased the King’s Head hotel in Cirencester out of administration for £8.62 million…

Coqfighter is reported looking to grow to over 100 delivery sites within 18 months.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Heathrow airport is pushing for a 17% rise in landing charges to fund a £10bn investment programme that it says will raise its annual capacity to 92mn passengers.

TravelSupermarket has compiled figures for the BBC showing that ‘all-inclusive family package holidays from the UK have jumped in price for some of the most popular destinations, including Spain, Cyprus and Turkey.’ The BBC reports that ‘the average price for a week in Cyprus in August has gone up by 23%, from £950 per person to £1,166…’

Center Parcs has said that its planned holiday village in the Scottish Borders could attract over 350k visitors a year. The company has submitted a planning application for the site, to be located near Hawick….

OTHER LEISURE:

Flutter reports that it has secured 100% ownership of FanDuel through a new agreement with Boyd. It is announcing the extension of its long-term strategic partnership with Boyd Gaming Corporation and says it will ‘pay Boyd approximately $1.755bn to acquire Boyd’s 5% stake in FanDuel and to revise various existing commercial terms, taking Flutter’s holding in the #1 sports betting and iGaming business in the US to 100% at an attractive implied valuation of approximately $31bn….

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Meta is reported by Bloomberg to have agreed a compensation package of over $200 million to tempt Ruoming Pang, a former Apple engineer, to join its “superintelligence” team.

Elon Musk has said that his AI chatbot, Grok, was ‘manipulated’ into praising former Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For GDP comment, see Pubs & Restaurants above. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has said that her party backs the UK pensions triple lock despite OBR comments to the effect that the taxpayer cannot afford it.

The Bank of England has warned that geopolitical uncertainties, trade disputes and bond yield rises have put global economic growth in doubt.

Sterling mixed at $1.3557 and €1.1612. Oil lower at $68.88. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.60%. World markets mixed to better yesterday but, after a strong day yesterday, London is set to open a shade lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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