Insolvencies, business rates, Shake Shack, JW Lees, job losses & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I think our dog is size-prejudiced.

Because, whilst she’s fine with small animals, birds in particular, there’s a cut-off point at about the size of a blackbird, after which she will broach no nonsense.

It seems that she’ll ignore insects and birds that hop.

And the switchover from hopping to walking seems to around the size of the aforementioned blackbird after which they walk and, as far as the dog’s concerned, they’re fair game.

On the mammals side, she’s admittedly not been much tested with mice – and nor has she been tried with kangaroo’s, where sheep-sized animals that hop would probably melt her mind – but vermin that scurry are a particular pet hate and mammals from the size of a rat upwards – and particularly squirrels – are to be despatched on sight.

Not that she’s ever come near to catching a squirrel, of course, maybe that’s why she despises them so much but dogs of any size, even ones that look like guinea pigs, are clearly to be played with rather than eaten.

Makes sense of a sort, I suppose. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Business rates:

With the chancellor looking around for ways to plug funding gaps left by recent policy U-turns, there are fears that business rates rises are likely. The Sunday Times reports that Ms Reeves has been warned this will push up food prices and The Mail on Sunday reports that ‘thousands of struggling village pubs could be forced to close next year…’

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Job losses:

UKH reports that new ONS data shows hospitality has now lost 84,000 jobs since the Budget. Chair Kate Nicholls says the devastating job losses are a direct consequence of policy decisions at last year’s Budget, which have disproportionately hit the hospitality sector.’ She says ‘the change to employer NICs in particular, was socially regressive and had a disproportionate impact on entry level jobs….’

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Other news:

Buy now, pay later providers such as Klarna and Afterpay are reported set to face additional rules relating to customer’s ability to spend imposed by the Financial Conduct Authority from July next year….

Cider. KAM comments on the cider market saying that the product ‘now has credible year-round appeal.’ It says ‘a third of drinkers say they would choose cider even in winter, and mulled options could help extend this further.’ It says its research ‘confirmed that cider is not an occasional, seasonal extra.’

Insolvencies: The Insolvency Service has released company failure numbers for June 2025 for both corporations and for individuals. It reports that, in England & Wales in the month of June, there were 2,043 company insolvencies. This was ‘8% lower than in May 2025 (2,230) and 16% lower than the same month in the previous year (2,430 in June 2024).’ The Insolvency Service adds that ‘monthly company insolvency numbers in the first six months of 2025 were slightly higher than the second half of 2024, but remain lower than the 30-year annual high seen in 2023….’

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Earlier dining. OpenTable points to a move to earlier dinner bookings. It says that reservations before 6pm in London were up by 11% with bookings before 5pm up 10% in H1 this year…

Consumer discretionary incomes: Estate agent Hamptons reports that demand for rented accommodation is slowing in a move that could see rental costs for consumers stall this year. It has cut its estimate of rental growth to 1.0% this year from its earlier estimate of 4.5%….

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Commodity prices: The FT reports that ‘from potatoes in Britain to onions in India, weather extremes driven by climate change are driving short-term food price surges globally.’ It quotes a study led by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center as saying that dozens of climate extremes have led to sharp food price spikes. It says this highlights ‘the increasing vulnerability of food systems to environmental shocks.’

Prompt to save more: The Department for Work and Pensions has suggested that people retiring in 2050 will be less well off than today’s retirees….

COMPANY NEWS:

Manchester brewer and pub company JW Lees has announced profit before tax for the year ended 31 March 2025 of £7.1m (2024: £7.1m). It reports that ‘turnover for the year increased to £99.9m (2024: £95.8m) whilst the group’s net assets increased to £102m (2024: £98m)….

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Which Wich Superior Sandwiches has announced that it has signed its first UK multi-unit franchise agreement with Breaking Brands Management Ltd marking’ the next major step in its UK expansion.’ It adds that ‘Breaking Brands, led by experienced operator Steve Lewis, will launch the first locations in Cardiff.’

Diverse Dining Ltd, which operates Shake Shack in the UK as a master-franchisee, has reported results for the year to 31 December 2024 to Companies’ House. The company reports turnover up 6.6% at £51.5m. It reports GP% up to 69.4% from 68.1% in the prior year. The absolute level of GP rose to £35.8m (up 8.6%). Admin costs were up by a short 3% and interest charges more than double (albeit only to £52k) but PBT nonetheless swung to a profit of £1.1m in 2024 from a loss of £764k in the prior year. Unlike many companies, which tend to focus somewhat higher up the P&L and comment on EBITDA, Diverse Dining does not mention that measure at all….

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Signature Brew, based in Walthamstow North London, has won the Overall Champion at the Indie Beer Awards South East 2025.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Resolution Foundation writes in The Times that the triple lock may not be sustainable. It says ‘the big increase in the number of old people as the post-war baby boomers age is a significant pressure.’

A Wall Street Journal survey of economists has revealed that experts now perceive a lower risk of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months. The chance is now put at 33%, down from 45% in April.

Rightmove has cut its estimate for home price growth this year from 4% to 2%. It says there are more houses on the market and adds that ‘the decade-high level of buyer choice means that discerning buyers can quickly spot when a home looks over-priced compared to the many others that may be available in their area.’

Sterling slightly lower at $1.3417 and €1.1541. Oil lower at $69.44. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.67%. World markets mixed and London set to open little changed as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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