M&B, Trust Inns, The Ned, LVMH, growth, confidence, jobs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I think I’m suffering from CTS, Cumulative Stress Disorder and, it being Friday, I think that I need two days off work.

And fair enough, CTS is something I’ve just made up.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not real. Or at least it might be real because, after five days of getting up at stupid o’clock to news-gather – aka gossip – prepare emails, fight off the VAT, FCA and other authorities along with Companies’ House, HMRC and the rest, alongside dealing with my own, often self-inflicted  IT, telephony and power collapses, I could do with a break.

But despair not. I should be able to struggle through to mid-morning or so, after which time it’s definitely the weekend. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Low & no-alcohol beers:

The BBPA reports that some 33m pints of low and no-alcohol beers will be sold in the On Trade in June and July. Last year, around 27m pints of the equivalent were sold in the same two months. In 2023, sales were just 23m pints….

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Economic growth:

S&P has produced flash numbers for its July PMI (purchasing managers’ index) scores for July, saying that growth appears to have slowed with more firms moving to cut jobs…

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Contrasting view of the jobs market:

In contrast, the Recruitment & Employment Confederation has reported that June (albeit the month before the S&P data above) saw a ‘small burst’ in demand for jobs…

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Consumer confidence:

GfK has released its UK consumer confidence numbers for July saying that its aggregate number fell by one point to minus 19. It says consumers may be ‘saving for stormy conditions ahead…’

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Other news:

Wholesale coffee prices fall: Good harvests have led to a sharp drop in Robusta coffee prices, which fell by 4.8% on Monday. Vietnam, which is the world’s largest producer of Robusta, is reported set to have the best harvest in four years in 2025/26….

COMPANY NEWS:

City AM reports that The Ned is to launch a ‘members’ club in the countryside amid aggressive growth plans that echo Soho House.’ It says that it will ‘open a “rural” estate in the UK as part of an aggressive expansion plan, with a first outpost in mainland Europe also in the pipeline….’

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Trust Inns, which has ‘over 340 pubs across the UK for let and sale, from traditional inns to modern city bars’, has reported results for the year to 30 March 2025 to Companies’ House. Trust Inns is directly owned by Isle of Man holding company Dollagh Ltd. The latter is ultimately owned by Wordon Ltd, which is another Isle of Man holding company. Headline numbers: The company reports turnover up 3.0% at £43.3m. The GP% has risen slightly from 60.1% to 60.2% and the absolute level of GP is up by 3.2% at £26.1m. The company has managed to trim admin expenses from £13.9m to £13.6m. the company made a profit of £348k on the disposal of fixed assets and suffered an impairment charge of £1.6m. The net charge of £1.3m compares with a charge of £1.1m in the prior year. Interest is up on higher rates but PBT still rose to £8.0m from £7.5m in FY24….

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Bagel company Auntie Anne’s UK & Ireland has reported revenue growth of some 18% in the year to date, says that MCA…

LVMH, which owns the Moët and Hennessy drinks ranges, yesterday evening reported H1 numbers saying that overall revenues came in at €39.8 billion. It says it ‘showed good resilience and maintained its powerful innovative momentum despite a disrupted geopolitical and economic environment.’ Within the €39.8 billion, the Wines & Spirits business recorded sales of €2.8 billion, down some 7% on an organic basis from the same period last year…

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MITCHELLS & BUTLERS Q3 TRADING UPDATE:

MAB reports that ‘building on a strong performance through the first half, sales growth has remained well ahead of the market.’ It says that Q3 sales benefited from Easter and recent sunny weather to increase like-for-like sales growth for the year to date to 4.5%. Total sales in the year to date have increased by 4.4%….

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Forest Holidays Ltd, which develops and operates ‘short-term holiday lets of eco-cabin sites in the UK’s stunning forests and which is ultimately owned by global PE house Vitruvian Partners, has reported results for the year to 30 September 2024 to Companies’ House. The company reports turnover up 3.1% at £59.2m. However, the GP% has slipped to 43.2% from 45.5%. The absolute level of GP is down but admin costs rose slightly (by 1.4%) and finance charges rose materially, up by 9.6% on higher rates to £7.4m. As a result of the above squeeze, the company reports a loss per share of £11.9m against a loss in the prior year of £4.1m….

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Wyndham Hotels & Resorts reports that REVPAR fell by 3% in Q2 versus the same quarter in the prior year. It reports that international REVPAR rose 1% but REVPAR in the US fell by 4%. The company reports that ‘higher for longer interest rates, persistent inflation, and uncertainty around immigration and trade have created an environment of ongoing economic volatility for economy and midscale guests, who remain especially sensitive to these dynamics.’

OTHER LEISURE:

ITV yesterday reported better-than-feared numbers despite competition from streaming companies. A relief rally saw the group’s shares rise by almost 13%.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

President Donald Trump is reported set to ‘visit the Fed’. A sitting president has not made the visit since 2006 and it is deemed to be a sign that Mr Trump aims to increase pressure on chair Jerome Powell to resign. The Fed says it is ‘working with the White House to accommodate their visit.’

Property agent Savills has cut its forecast for UK house price growth this year and next saying that prices may only rise by 1% this year (previous estimate 4%) and by 4% next year (earlier forecast 5.5%).

The European Central Bank yesterday held interest rates. ECB president, Christine Lagarde, said the eurozone financially was in ‘a good place’” She says that the cost of living crisis is now over and adds ‘our job is now to look at what is coming.’

Sterling lower at $1.3489 and €1.1496. Oil higher at $69.39. UK 10 year gilt yield down 2 basis points at 4.62%. World markets better in Europe and mixed in North America yesterday. Far East lower and London set to open around 5 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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