Rank, XPF, Carlsberg, TUI, incomes, GDP, jobs, coffee market & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I can’t help thinking that, however little you pay for it, flatpack furniture is never cheap.

Because, when you see a thick wodge of instructions together with a drawing of two smiley stick figures holding a hammer and a screwdriver and ‘simple-assembly’ written in large letters, you should really smell a rat.

And, despite the fact that ‘four hours’ will be written in very teeny tiny writing, the ‘forty-eight easy steps’ should give you a clue.

So why do I always fall for it?

Well, price for one thing.

This is practical stuff, bookcases-for-the-office kind of thing rather than aesthetically pleasing, faux antique, ‘distressed’ bits and bobs that you might ultimately be proud of. And, if you can reclaim the VAT and set it off against profits – if you’re lucky enough to make any – then it’s about half price in terms of cash-cash but, as mentioned above, I think if they paid me to take it away, it would still be too expensive.

Anyway, skinned knuckles, cracked knees and the like to one side, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Disposable incomes

Moneyfacts reports that the average two-year mortgage rate is now below 5% for the first time since Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget in September 2022. There isn’t a lot of practical difference between 5.01% and 4.99% when it comes to assessing your beer money but Moneyfacts says that this is a ‘symbolic turning point…’

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Hospitality jobs:

UKH continues to maintain that hospitality is bearing the brunt of job losses. CEO Kate Nicholls says ‘the biggest fall in employment is among younger workers, those seeking their first roles, in entry level jobs or holiday jobs. A group that is now losing out on opportunities to gain vital experience and essential skills…’

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Coffee:

Lumina Intelligence updates on the UK coffee market saying that ‘with a £6.1bn turnover in 2024/25, coffee shops/cafés & dessert parlours are up +4.1% YoY.’ It says ‘the category is poised for robust growth led by physical expansion and product innovation across brands…’

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COMPANY NEWS:

XP Factory shares fell by 11% to 9.5p yesterday on the back of the company’s profit warning. The shares are now at post-Covid lows. The company listed at 135p and the shares changed hands at 45p as recently as April 2021. Below the fuller note that went out to clients yesterday…

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Carlsberg has reported H1 numbers to 30 June 2025 saying that reported volume grew by 16.0% with ‘organic volume development down 1.7%.’ It says that organic volumes excluding San Miguel were down 0.4%. The group says it saw good growth in Western Europe, Asia and Central & Eastern Europe and India. The group reports operating profit growth of 15.1%, with organic operating profit growth (excluding acquisitions) of 2.3%…

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In the US, fast-growing Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain Cava has reported LFL sales growth of 2% in Q2. It says that revenue came in at $280.62 million, below the $285.56 million Wall Street expected. Adjusted earnings were 16c…

McDonald’s and DoorDash have expanded their global partnership with a new ‘Online Ordering Experience’ in the USA. The companies report that customers will be able to ‘order McDelivery via mobile web or desktop — no app downloads, logins, or accounts required. Orders are fulfilled by Dashers, offering a fast, reliable, and familiar delivery experience….’

Staying in the US, Chili’s Grill & Bar has reported LFL sales increases of 23.7% in the fourth quarter ended June 25…

Australia-based Treasury Wine Estates has reported full year revenues up by 7.2% to AU$770m. Profits are up 16% to AU$471m. The company owns the Penfolds, Wolf Blass and Bossom Hill brands amongst others.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

TUI yesterday hosted a call with analysts to discuss its Q3 numbers (which were covered yesterday). The company’s CEO, Sebastian Ebel, said that there had been a ‘significant’ drop in travel to the US….

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Car rental company Sixt has reported revenues up 7.4% in Q2 to €1.08 billion. It alludes to later booking when it says refers to ‘declining visibility…’

The BBC reports that a number of baggage screeners at Gatwick Airport will strike over a pay dispute in late August, including over the bank holiday weekend, Union Unite says baggage screeners there are among the lowest paid workers at the airport and earn “just above minimum wage”.

Holiday company Minoan says its ‘Board is still considering the terms of the formalised non-binding offer it has received from DAGG LLP. The Board has sought independent legal advice.’ It says ‘a further update will be made by close of business on Friday, 15 August 2025.’

CoStar reports that ‘the Wimbledon Championship and the Oasis Tour pushed London’s hotel industry to its highest average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room on record, according to preliminary data…’

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OTHER LEISURE:

Rank Group has reported full year numbers for the 12 months to end-June saying ‘strong returns on investment drive revenue and profit growth.’ It reports underlying net gaming revenue up 11% at £795.3m with underlying operating profit up 38% at £63.7m. The group reports PBT of £53.9m (2024: £15.5m) and underlying EPS up 54% at 9.1p. The FY dividend is 2.6p against just 0.85p last year…

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Sky News reports that Merlin ‘has abandoned plans to sell some of its British aquariums after failing to reel in sufficiently attractive bids…’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for a half-point cut in interest rates in the US when the Fed next meets in September.

The ONS reports on Q2 GCP saying that it is ‘estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. It says this is ‘following an increase of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.’ The ONS says ‘GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago….’

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Sterling up at $1.3574 and €1.1604. Oil down at $65.93. UK 10 year gilt yield down by 3 basis points at 4.59%. World markets mostly better yesterday and London set to open around 6 point higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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