Just Eat, Premier Foods, incomes & taxes, presentation & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We’re having a little tootle around Rutland and the surrounding areas at the moment and, indeed, why not.

Rutland itself seems very pleasant but the towns nearby – and their associated hospitality offers – are variable to say the least.

No surprise to people who get out of London on a regular basis, but vape shops, charity shops and various hair and beauty salons seem to be in the ascendency and the number of closed pubs (and those looking for a new tenant) remains very disturbing. 

We’ll have to temper some of the above with good news if and where we find it but, all being equal, details to follow.

For the moment, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Disposable incomes:

Rents still soaking up disposable cash. The Resolution Foundation maintains that private rent rises are still outpacing earnings. It says renters in London and the Welsh Valleys are facing the biggest affordability problems in the country…

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Mansion taxes:

Various sources are suggesting that the chancellor might implement a ‘mansion tax’ on homes sold with a value of more than £1.5m. This would a) raise funds, b) be hard to avoid as the transaction would be so visible and c) hit non-labour voters and home-owners in the South East of England more than it would labour voters and those in the provinces…

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Cost of living issues:

Perspectus Global reports that 58% of UK diners are cutting back on eating out due to rising inflation. Or at least they say they are. And a further 44% say they will cut visits further in the next six months.

Insolvencies:

The Buchler Phillips Hospitality Index reports that the number of insolvencies in hospitality fell in the first half of this year but, as the MA says, figures remain historically high. The MA reports that some 1,706 accommodation and food service firms including pubs, hotels and restaurants closed in the six months to June 2025. It says this was down by 5.5% from 1,806 compared to the first half of 2024….

PRESENTATION VS MISDIRECTION (Part II):

Earlier this month, with the Q2 and H1 results season in full swing, we sent the below out to clients.

Skilful presentation or misdirection?

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COMPANY NEWS:

Just Eat Takeaway.com has reported that it is partnering with Swiss robotics company RIVR to pilot doorstep delivery of food products with autonomous ground robots….

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Premier Foods has announced that it has agreed to acquire Merchant Gourmet, a premium, healthy, convenient meals brand, for an enterprise value of £48.0m. It says this is another step in its ‘growth strategy of acquiring brands where it can add value and deliver further growth….’

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Joule’s Brewery has repored that it has purchased a historic vineyard in the Premier Côtes de Bordeaux area in France. It says this is the first time Joule’s has stepped beyond brewing into winemaking’ but it says that its ‘ambition remains the same, to create something of the highest quality, exclusively for it’s pubs, and offer it to customers at the very best value.’

Brother Marcus is to take over the former Social Eating House site in Soho and adding a seventh restaurant that will feature its first cocktail bar.

The MCA reports that ‘WatchHouse is preparing for its next phase of growth with new technology and an expanded US presence.’

Netflix is to release a period drama chronicling the rise of the Guinness brewing dynasty in Ireland.

MCD Manchester, which operates a number of McDonald’s stores in the Manchester area, has reported numbers to Companies’ House saying that revenue slipped by 6.4% to £41.6m. The company reports its GP% rose to 42.1% from 41.8% but this was outweighed by the drop in revenue and GP fell from £17.4m in the prior year to £16.6m in the year under review. Admin costs were cut by 4.6% and, as the company has substantial cash, interest received rose sharply on higher rates. Overall, the drop in revenues meant that the company reported PBT of £1.26m vs £1.46m in the prior year…

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US coffee chain Black Rock Coffee Bar has filed a notice of its intention to IPO its shares on NASDAQ. The company reports that its revenue rose over 24% in the first half of 2025.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is reported to have written to Tory-controlled councils to say that she will any legal moves they make in order to evict asylum seekers from hotels in their area. Whilst steeped in politics, this could reduce revenues on the margin for some hotel companies.

OTHER LEISURE:

Sony PlayStation 5 gaming consoles in the US are to rise in price by around $50 from today. Tariffs and rising costs have been cited as the major reasons.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Higher inflation numbers have led various economists to suggest that there will be no further UK interest rate cuts this year…

ONS data suggest that UK house prices rose by 3.7% in the year to June, up from the 2.7% registered in the year to May.

Sterling lower at $1.3448 and €1.1554. Oil up at $67.21. UK 10 year gilt yield down by 5 basis points at 4.67%. World markets mixed yesterday after London performed well. The FTSE100 set to open around 4 points better as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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