Time Out, BrewDog, food inflation, jobs market, insolvencies & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, although it’s a short working week and the sun’s shining for the moment, it’s hard to ignore the fact that we’ll be into September come Monday and the weather looks set to change.

Which is what it is.

And the weather’s just the weather and we – both customers and the trade – can make the most of it.

Not that we’ve got a lot of choice because, when it’s eight degrees with a touch of mist in the mornings, you pretty much know what’s coming and the days of ineffectually shouting ‘sit’ at your dog whilst having a picnic (along with dozens of other regretful dog-owners doing pretty much the same thing) might well be stuttering to a halt.

And we’re ‘weather-takers’ rather than ‘weather-makers’. Similar in a way to the Mighty Hull City, which ended its unbeaten streak in the Championship after all of two matches.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Food price inflation:

The BRC has reported that a jump in the price of staples such as eggs, butter and chocolate has led to a rise in food price inflation which, in August, hit an 18-month high of 4.2% (compared to the 4.0% registered in July)…

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CGA reports that LFL sales across the UK’s largest managed hospitality companies was down 3% in the week to 2 August and up 2% in the week to 9 August. Whilst the first of the two weeks is negative in absolute terms, both numbers are below the prevailing rate of inflation and they point to declining volumes…

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Insolvencies:

The Insolvency Service has released company failure numbers for July 2025 for both corporations and for individuals. It reports that, in England & Wales in the month of July, there were 2,081 company insolvencies. This was ‘similar to both June 2025 (2,053) and the same month in the previous year (2,078 in July 2024)….’

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Jobs market:

Adzuna reports that vacancies for entry-level jobs in the UK are now at their lowest level in five years. This both a) indicates that he jobs market is cooling and b) suggests that the NIC rises could have had more of an impact at the entry level (and for part-timers) than they did higher up the pay scale…

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Trading:

Job losses:

UKH reports that ‘of the 164,641 job losses in the UK since the Budget last October, almost 89,000 have been lost in hospitality.’ it says that ‘hospitality has accounted for 53% of all job losses in the UK since the Budget, confirming the sector is the hardest hit by tax increases….’

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Other news:

US drink prices. Drinks Business reports that European drinks prices could rise in the US as a result of tariffs. It says ‘analysts warn American consumers could see bar prices rise sharply as the trade dispute drags on….’

Business confidence. A report from eBay UK suggests that confidence is rising across online small and medium-sized enterprise entrepreneurs in the country.

Hospitality Sector Council: Loungers chair Alex Reilley has quit as a member of the Hospitality Sector Council. He tells The Telegraph that he was told, as a member of the council, that he should not be publicly criticising what the government is doing,.

US alcohol sales. NRN reports that restaurant customers are ordering less alcohol when they eat. It says ‘the decline is driven by check management [I.e. keeping an eye on what you spend] and younger consumers drinking less.’

COMPANY NEWS:

Time Out profit warning. The company has updated on trading saying that it expects adjusted group EBITDA in the year to end-June 2025 of £7-9 million. Current trading is below expectations. The company adds that it has negotiated a new £6 million loan facility ‘to provide growth capital…’

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BrewDog co-founder Martin Dickie is to ‘step away’ from the business. He writes ‘I’ve decided to step away from BrewDog and the wider alcohol industry for personal reasons.’ Mr Dickie adds ‘this business has been my life for the last 18 years, and I have enjoyed (almost) every minute….’

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Drinks Business reports that ‘Diageo is planning a major expansion of its new €200 million brewery in Littleconnell, Co Kildare, in response to soaring global demand for Guinness and Guinness 0.0.’

Costa Coffee. Sky News reports that Coca Cola ‘is working with bankers at Lazard to gauge interest in a sale of the coffee chain it agreed to buy in 2018 for £3.9bn.’ Sky reports that ‘initial talks have already been held with a small number of potential bidders, including private equity firms, City sources said on Saturday….’

Keurig Dr Pepper reported yesterday that it is to buy European coffee company JDE Peet’s for roughly €16bn…

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Applebee’s has appointed Michelle Chin as Chief Marketing Officer and Jerrold (Jay) Wong as Chief Operations Officer.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

STR reports that U.S. hotel REVPAR fell 0.5% in the week ending 16 Aug….

OTHER LEISURE:

Elon Musk-backed businesses X and xAI are suing Apple and OpenAI saying that they are joining forces to block competitors.

TikTok is reported set to lay off hundreds of moderators in the UK. AI would perform some of the tasks.

Elon Musk at X is reported to have reached a settlement with sacked workers who had been suing the business for $500m in severance pay.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Telegraph quotes ‘leading economists’ as suggesting that the UK ‘risks a return to the years of high inflation and borrowing that ended with Britain being forced to borrow billions from the International Monetary Fund 50 years ago.’

Fed chair Jerome Powell has told bankers meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs could prove temporary. The markets have taken the above as a signal that rate cuts could be back on the cards.

German GDP fell by 0.3% in Q2 vs Q1. GDP was 0.2% higher in Q2 than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

US President Donald Trump says he will fire Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook as there is “sufficient reason” to believe she has made false statements.

Sterling up (since Friday) at $1.3455 and €1.1571. Oil higher at $68.51. UK 10 year gilt yield down by 4 basis points at 4.69%. World markets mostly lower yesterday and London set to open around 22 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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