YNGA, Punch, Samba, Itsu, inflation, job losses & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’m not much of a chess player.

I’m a bit linear in my approach but I was recently considering first, second and third (and more) levels of thinking with regard to the stock market.

You can’t simply say ‘Artificial Intelligence is a big thing so therefore that AI share must be a buy’.

Because it could pay you to remember that the majority of motor companies in the 1910s and 1920s failed, despite the fact that the number of motor cars in the world moved from pretty much zero to around 1.5bn in the next century.

But nor can you say ‘that company can’t compete, it’s a sell’.

Because it may have a skimpy balance sheet but have great tech and be bought at a premium. Or investors may, for some unknown but oft-repeated reason, ‘dash for trash’.

Hence, when asked what share to buy, I can only really say ‘it’s complicated’ and, you know what, this is one area at least where I’m rarely wrong.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation:

The ONS has reported that CPI rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to August 2025, unchanged from July. It says that on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3% in August 2025, the same rate as in August 2024….

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Hospitality job losses:

UKH is projecting that 111,000 jobs will have been lost in hospitality by the Budget on November 26. It says this ‘will be almost 13 months on from the previous Budget that hit hospitality with £3.4 billion of additional annual cost….’

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Wider UK jobs market:

The ONS yesterday reported that wage growth in the year to the three months of May to July eased to 4.8% from 5.0% in the previous month. The number of workers fell and the number of vacancies also fell on the quarter. The unemployment rate came in at 4.7%, up from a year ago and the ONS says ‘the labour market continues to cool…’

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Other news:

More on jobs. Sky is cutting 600 UK jobs as it moves more into streaming. Whilst small in the scale of the UK employment market as a whole, this is of note because it a) shows that ‘disruption’ caused by tech is ongoing and b) it has the capacity to worry workers who retain their jobs into spending a shade less than they would otherwise have done.

AI: The BBC reports on a chip shop manager who says he has programmed an AI answering service to take orders in a bid to cut costs. Brad Lee, who runs The Nippy Chippy in Stonehouse, Gloucestershire, says he is the only person he knows of using the system in a fish and chip shop.

Demographics. The state pension is likely to rise by 4.7% next April (being the higher of inflation, 2.5% or wage growth). This could and should put more money into the pockets of grey market consumers but it has also raised further questions as to the sustainability of the ‘triple lock’.

People drawing their new state pension from April are likely to see a rise of more than £500 a year, latest wages data suggests.

YOUNG & CO – H1 UPDATE:

Young & Co reports ‘we are pleased to report that the strong trading momentum announced in our AGM trading update on the 9 July 2025 has continued through the summer.’ It says LFL sales are up 5.6% and total sales are up 5.3% in the period. The group adds that ‘this performance reflects healthy demand for our premium, individual and well invested pubs, supported by the ongoing sunny weather as customers continued to enjoy our gardens, riverside locations and outdoor spaces.’ It says ‘it also demonstrates the success and impact of several recent investment schemes in our estate ahead of the summer period.’

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COMPANY NEWS:

Punch Pubs & Co has ‘made changes to its leadership structure to improve execution, drive growth, and reinforce a shared aim of becoming THE 5 Star Pub Company….’

Samba London, which operates two restaurants and a number of bars in London’s Heron Tower (and which is ultimately owned by Shamal International Limited, controlled from the UAE, has reported numbers for the year to 31 Dec 2024 to Companies’ House. The company reports that revenues rose by 0.5% to £28.0m and that operating profit was some 9.4% higher at £3.4m. A sharp reduction in interest payable has led to a 25% rise in PBT to £3.3m (FY23: £2.6m). The company reports that accumulated profits now total some £7.8m (FY23: £5.2m) and shareholders’ funds total £10.0m…

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Itsu, which operates fast-casual dining sites in the UK with some franchised units overseas as well as providing branded grocery products to supermarkets, has reported 53-week numbers to Companies’ House. Comps are for a 52-week period. The company reports that revenue rose by 3.7% in the year to £120.3m. Itsu adds that its gross profit margin expanded to 67.7% (from 66.8%) but, as admin and general costs rose by 7.2% to £86.4m, the group reports an operating loss of £4.8m, up from £3.0m in the prior year. Interest costs have risen and the company reports a loss before tax of £6.7m, up from a loss in the previous year of £4.3m…

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Which Wich has announced that it is to open its first unit in Scotland. It says this is ‘marking the next stage of its rapid UK expansion’ and it comes ‘hot on the heels of its Wales debut.’

Chuck E. Cheese has announced that it has signed a multi-unit agreement to open in the United Kingdom for the first time.

In the US, Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc has announced Q2 numbers saying that LFL sales dropped by 3% in the quarter.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

ACI Europe has reported that air traffic across Europe rose by 3% in July compared with a year ago. London Heathrow remained the busiest airport in Europe in July with 7.98 million passengers.

OTHER LEISURE:

One Gym Ltd has reported full year numbers to 31 March 25 to Companies’ House saying that revenue rose by 33% to £7.3m. Admin costs rose by a larger 47% resulting in PBT rising by a lesser 10% to £1.58m. The company reports retained profits (and shareholders’ funds) of £3.6m compared to £2.3m in the prior year…

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Shares in Tesla have jumped on the news that Elon Musk has committed further funds. He has sold shares in the recent past.

Games Workshop has today briefly updated on trading saying that ‘trading to 31 August 2025 is in line with the Board’s expectations for the current financial year.’ It adds that it is declaring a dividend of 85p per share ‘taking dividends declared so far in 2025/26 to £2.25 per share (2024/25: £1.00)….’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Fed’s board of governors, Stephen Miran, has been approved by the US Senate.

After months of pressure from the Trump administration, the US Fed is now expected to cut interest rates when it makes its decision public later today.

Sterling mixed at $1.3640 and €1.1511. Oil higher at $68.34. UK 10 year gilt yield up 1 basis point at 4.64%. World markets mostly lower yesterday but Far East steadier & London expected to open around 9 points better as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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