Cook’s Coffee, XPF, SBUX, GRG, ID cards, trends, High Street & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’m getting no younger but I’m beginning to think that parking machines these days are designed to bamboozle you.

And rob you, of course, because they’ll have you enter your car reg, the length of time you want to stay, press up or down to change times – a task in itself because there might be twenty buttons – and then you have to enter your date of birth, your mother’s maiden name, your NIC number and the grid-co-ordinates of your can and, in the only large and clear writing anywhere on the board, the machine will tell you that a failure to do any of the above will result in a £70 fine.

Or fifty pounds for cash and, if you decide to do it with any of the advertised apps, you’ll have to do all of the above and pay 50p extra for the privilege.

Anyway, Hull City managed to flatter to deceive on Saturday. One goal up and half time and two-one against at the full. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

ID cards and access to labour:

The announcement by Sir Keir Starmer that Brit Cards, effectively ID cards, will be introduced in the UK, has led to protest and an online petition signed, as we write, by some 2.3m people. The move, which was last attempted in 2006, could and probably would, cut illegal working in the UK…

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Restaurant numbers vs restaurant health:

Restaurant guide Harden’s earlier this month reported that the London restaurant market is ‘closer to boom than gloom’. It said that the closure rate has recently been the lowest in a decade and that net openings are the highest since Brexit. We don’t have the information to question their findings but we would question whether restaurant numbers equate directly to restaurant health….

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Demographic issues and societal trends:

Sir Tim Martin tells The Times that ‘there’s no doubt that the hospitality industry is struggling’ but he adds that the convention that younger consumers aren’t drinking is misleading’ whilst the Daily Mail takes a different view and tells its readers that ‘dining in makes financial sense’ and says that the supermarkets are gaining share…

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High Street:

A survey of 5,000 consumers undertaken by CGA and Zonal has revealed that some 55% of consumers in suburban areas believe that their high street is deteriorating. Some 48% of consumers in rural areas believe the same, compared with only 19% of consumers in city centres…

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Other news:

Deal flow: Christie & Co today updates on its own trading, which reflects to some extent deal flow in the hospitality sector. saying that the ‘group begins H2 with transactional brokerage pipelines 15% higher than the start of the year and 10% up on H1 2024. It says its finance brokerage has seen ‘strong instruction levels throughout H1 and a pipeline at 30 June 2025 10% higher than the start of the year

COMPANY NEWS:

Cook’s Coffee today updates on trading saying that for the H1 to 28 September 2025, the group saw systemwide store sales in the UK and Ireland up by 26.9% ‘reflecting continued momentum across the Company.’ It adds that ‘UK store sales improved by 26.7%, as a result of the increased estate and positive like for like growth.’ In Ireland, sales were up by 27.4%. Cook’s adds that ‘like-for-like sales growth was +3.5% in the UK and +6.4% in Ireland, indicating underlying strength in established stores….’

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Escape Hunt and Boom Battle Bars operator XP Factory has announced that Independent Non-Executive Chairman Richard Rose has informed the Company of his intention to stand down from the Board. It says that ‘May 2026 will mark Richard’s ninth anniversary as Non-Executive Chairman and his decision to stand down is in line with best practice.’ XPF says that ‘the Company initiates a process to identify and appoint his successor. Further announcements will made by the Company as appropriate.’

Moody’s comments on Starbucks Corporation’s closure programme and move ‘to revitalize its coffeehouses and enhance the overall customer and partner experience’ saying that ‘the increased costs are credit negative in the near term because they are being implemented in an environment of difficult consumer spending and increasing costs, adding to the risk for further deterioration in earnings and cash flow before the Back to Stabucks reinvention plan initiatives are fully implemented and performance begins to recover…’

Moody’s further comments on Heineken’s acquisition of the 75% of Florida Ice and Farm Company Central American beverage and retail businesses it does not already own for $3.2 billion, saying that ‘while the transaction will temporarily raise Heineken’s leverage, we expect it to remain within the boundaries for the current rating….’

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Gregg’s. Ahead of its Q3 trading update on Wednesday, This is Money questions whether Gregg’s might not have expanded too rapidly. It says ‘a series of profit warnings has knocked the stuffing out of the bakery chain’s share price, which has halved in the past year, leaving investors queasy ahead of this week’s trading update….’

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SSP Group. The FT reports that activist fund manager Irenic Capital Management has been ‘trying to drum up interest in a take-private deal for Upper Crust owner SSP Group after boosting its stake in the food-to-go operator.’ It says that the shareholder ‘is encouraging private equity groups to launch takeover bids for the London-listed company…’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The Times holds that Britain is losing billions of pounds of spending by international visitors since the removal of a tax break for tourists.’ It says that ending the VAT exemption for international shoppers led to a £2bn drop in spending by non-EU visitors last year.

OTHER LEISURE:

Tesla sales in the UK fell by over £500m in the UK in 2024 compared with the prior year. Sales to end-2024 were £1.94bn (FY23: £2.47bn)…

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI reports that the UK private sector expects activity to fall through the fourth quarter of this year. It says this is ‘extending a run of negative predictions that began in late 2024’. The CBI adds that ‘the downturn is expected to be broad-based and adds that ‘the disappointing outlook comes as private sector activity fell in the three months to September…’

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The CBI comments on the government’s announcement on youth unemployment saying that ‘rising youth unemployment holds back the future for young people and limits our economic potential. Tackling this is critical, and the Chancellor is showing just how seriously the government takes the challenge. We look forward to working with them on the details….’

Sterling higher at $1.3435 and €1.1461. Oil up at $69.78. UK 10 year gilt yield down by 2 basis points at 4.77%. World markets mostly better on Friday & London set to open around 37 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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