Flight Club, Nero, LVMH, Center Parcs, trading, business rates & other:

PREMIUM EMAIL – PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We came across a scam the other day, relatively sophisticated, and thought we would share the news.

We received an email demanding payment for breach of copyright.

It wasn’t plagiarism but rather an image, snipped from our website and included in the scam email, that had been up there for donkey’s years and for which we couldn’t remember the provenance.

So far, so normal.

I mean not many people will remember where (or who) they spent two minutes getting a photo or a word or an idea from 10-15 years ago.

The staff who put it there may have left. If it was externally provided, the website company may have closed (and reopened numerous times) and we were at a bit of a loss.

But the demand for €350 for back usage and €350 a year thereafter seemed a bit steep.

This wasn’t a photo of a film star or the like so we were pleased when, on talking to our website company, which hadn’t closed and reopened numerous times but which had stayed in business throughout, it transpired that they had sourced it, paid for it and recharged us to use it in perpetuity, the grand sum of £7.99.

Timewasters, huh.

But, it’s likely to spread. If you can send out 1,000 demands for €350 and one person in 100 coughs up, it’ll pay to send out another 1,000. On to the news:

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

The Oxford Partnership reports that ‘while the UK’s hospitality sector has settled into a steadier rhythm after the summer surge, inflation continues to squeeze real-term growth.’ It says that footfall is down but that price rises (and presumably mix changes) are helping revenue. The Partnership says that ‘in September, the number of open outlets edged down to 99,691 (-0.3% vs August), yet those that remained open saw occupancy rise +1.3% and average dwell times reach 142 minutes….’

• The Oxford Partnership says that ‘consumers are visiting less often but staying longer and spending more, though spend per head increases (+0.9% on drink and +1.6% on food) continue to lag behind the Bank of England’s inflation forecast of 4.0% for the same period.’

• CEO Alison Jordan says ‘what we’re seeing now is a more measured, experience-led recovery. Consumers are going out less frequently, but when they do, they’re making it count, staying longer, trading up, and choosing quality over quantity.’

• She says ‘the coming Budget is a critical moment; stability on business rates and taxation could be the difference between steady progress and another wave of closures.’

Rates reform:

The Co-op has warned that without major reform to the UK’s system of Business Rates, some 60,000 small shops and 150,000 jobs could be lost. The Co-op’s new campaign, On Your Corner, In Your Corner, tells the government that it should ‘finish the job and deliver maximum support to protect high streets and local communities….’

• The Co-op believes that 10% of small high street businesses could be forced to lay off staff in the absence of reform. It found that 67% of those taking part in its latest survey believe their high street is dying and 78% say that this is getting worse. The Co-op says ‘as we approach a critical Autumn Budget, there’s a real danger that the voices of small shops – and the communities they serve – are not being heard.’ It adds ‘local shops aren’t just businesses; they’re part of the social fabric of Britain. For some, a visit to a local store is one of the few chances they have to chat to someone and feel connected.’

Disposable incomes:

The ONS yesterday reported that wage growth cooled over the summer to 4.7% in the year to the three months to August, down from 4.8% in the year to the three months to July. It adds that the UK unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.7% to 4.8%. Job vacancies fell by 9,000, or 1.3%, in the three months to September…

• The ONS says ‘after a long period of weak hiring activity, there are signs that the falls we have seen in both payroll numbers and vacancies are now levelling off.; It adds that younger people are overrepresented in unemployment numbers.

• And separately, chancellor Rachel Reeves has told Sky News that she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget. She says ‘of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well.’ She is reported to be looking to find up to £30bn in tax rises and / or spending cuts in the budget in order to balance the books.

Inflation:

The IMF has said that Britain is expected to have the highest rate of inflation in the G7 group of leading economies this year and next. The country is set to average inflation of 3.4% this year and 2.5% next. The IMF had been expecting lower rates of 3.2% this year and 2.3% next.

COMPANY NEWS:

Flight Club funding: Sky News reports that Red Engine, whose brands include Flight Club darts and Electric Shuffleboard, ‘will this week announce an expansion of its financing firepower as it seeks to meet growing consumer demand for “competitive socialising”’…

• Sky reports that it ‘understands that Red Engine, whose brands occupy dozens of venues in the UK and overseas, has landed an additional £10m in debt financing from a syndicate comprising Barclays, HSBC and Santander UK.’ It says that this comes on top of a £60m lending facility agreed with the trio of banks in April last year.

LVMH yesterday reported Q3 numbers saying that total revenues amounted to €58.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025 (inclusive of drinks revenue, luggage and luxury goods). LVMH ‘showed good resilience and maintained its powerful innovative momentum despite a disrupted geopolitical and economic environment.’ It says that ‘Europe and the United States, which remained stable with respect to the first nine months of 2024, benefited from solid local demand. Japan was down with respect to the same period in 2024, which had been boosted by growth in tourist spending due to the much weaker yen. The rest of Asia saw a noticeable improvement in trends with respect to 2024….’

• LVMH reports that Wines & Spirits revenue slipped from €4.2bn in the first nine months of last year to €3.9bn in the first nine months of 2025. It points to an improved trend when it says that organic Q3 revenues were up by 1%.

• Re the Wines & Spirits business, LVMH says that it managed a ‘slight organic growth in the third quarter, despite a decline in its revenue in the first nine months of 2025.’ The company says that it saw ‘a sequential improvement in champagne and wines, and a good performance in Provence rosé wines. The trends seen in cognac since the beginning of the year were similar to those observed in 2024, due in particular to the impact of trade tensions weighing on demand in the key markets of the United States and China.’

Nero Group has updated on Q1 sales for FY26 saying that sales were up by 6% on a LFL basis…

• The group ‘delivered 9% year on year sales growth in Quarter 1 with 6% LFL sales growth.’ It ‘achieved record sales of £166m in Quarter 1 (June – August 2025)’ and Caffe Nero U.K. had record Q1 sales of £97m up 7% on last year. The Nero Group opened 13 new stores in the period, and it now has 1149 stores across 11 countries.

• The company reports that it ‘had strong sales growth in all its territories during Q1 with particularly pleasing results in Turkey, Sweden, Ireland, The United States, The United Kingdom and Cyprus.’ It says that ‘in each of these territories, Caffe Nero outperformed the F&B market and continued to gain market share. Not only did sales rise significantly, but customer numbers were also up year on year in the Group in Q1.’

• CEO Gerry Ford says ‘we have had a hugely successful Quarter 1, which means our financial year is off to a strong start. Our summer iced drinks campaign, particularly our Iced Coffees and Matcha ranges, were very successful.’ Mr Ford adds ‘we are operating in difficult times with high levels of macro uncertainty, record level high green coffee bean costs and sluggish economies. But we are sticking to our basic principles: great coffee served by wonderful people who care about their customers. I’m hopeful our momentum can continue in these challenging times.’

Domino’s Inc has reported U.S. same-store sales rose 5.2% in Q3 2025. It says that traffic was driven by its Best Deal Ever promotion and Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza. The rate of growth is the highest since Q1 last year.

Hertfordshire & Beds bakery chain, Simmons Bakers, has reported numbers to 30 March 2025 to Companies’ House saying that revenues in the year rose by 7.2% to £33.3m. Simmons has increased its GP% from 68.5% to 70.6%. Admin and distribution costs have risen by somewhat less than the rise in sales and operating profits have risen by 28% to £5.2m. The group has £61k in interest received (FY24: £40k received) and PBT is up at the same rate as operating profits, namely by 28% to £5.2m….

• The company paid dividends in the year of £3.2m (FY24: £1.5m) and retained profits since incorporation in 1946 (the company itself was founded in 1838) is £12.6m. Simmons has some 43 shops across its northern Home Counties estate and it supplies 12 wholesale customers.

• Simmons says ‘the performance of the company during the year has produced encouraging results.’ It adds ‘at the year end the group was in a good position with a strong balance sheet.’ Simmons says ‘during the year we invested over £2.2m in new bakery equipment, vehicles and the fitting out of our shops.’

• Re future developments, Simmons says ‘the UK food to go market is expected to continue to grow during the current year.’ It adds ‘we believe that we are in a very strong position to capitalise on this growth and are actively looking for new shops as well as continuing with the rebranding of our existing shops, along with monitoring rising costs across the business in areas such as ingredients and energy costs.’

Heineken yesterday announced ‘the reshaping of its global head office as part of its new five-year strategy, EverGreen 2030.’ It says that the changes are intended to help build ‘a more agile, simplified, and connected organisation, ready to focus on opportunities for growth and innovation.’

Coffee chain WatchHouse is set to open its first location in the United Arab Emirates this October. The company reports that the ‘move marks the brand’s first international franchise partnership and a significant step in its global growth story.’

Gordon Ramsay Restaurants has reported numbers for the fifteen months to December 2024 saying that sales were £134m with EBITDA of £12m.

Thornbridge & Co reports the launch of what will be its ‘flagship new bar, The Fargate,’ The unit will open in ‘one of Sheffield’s most prominent city centre locations.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Center Parcs in the UK has reported numbers for the year to 24 Apr 2025 to Companies’ House saying that revenues rose by 5.3% to £526.4m. The group reports that adjusted operating profit slipped slightly to £122.6m (FY24: £123.1m). Finance costs were reduced during the year and the group reports a PBT of £74.4m, up 9.7% on the £67.8m reported in the prior year…

• Center Parcs (Operating Company) Limited is, as the name suggests, the operating company for the group of Center Parcs companies ultimately owned by Brookfield Corporation of Toronto, Canada. The opco operates four of the Center Parcs holiday villages, being Sherwood Forest, Elveden Forest, Longleat Forest and Whinfell Forest.

• The company does not provide a great level of detail as to trading during the year. It does, however, report that its ‘purpose is to bring families together.’ It says that ‘we saw high levels of guest satisfaction this year, with an overall score of 88%.’

The UK hotel market has benefited from a summer of concerts. CoStar reports that occupancy in September was 86.5% (+3.3%) with ADR up 5.4%. This resulted in a 8.9% rise in REVPAR.

CoStar reports that the US hotel industry reported occupancy down 3.0% in the week to 4 October with room rate up 2.7%. REVPAR was down by 0.4%.

ACI Europe reports that passenger traffic across Europe’s airports rose by 4.9 per cent year-on-year in August.

OTHER LEISURE:

Entain has updated on Q3 trading saying that its full year guidance is being reiterated. It says that Q3 provided further evidences of its underlying momentum and the quality of business and says that total Group Net Gaming Revenue, including the group’s 50% share of BetMGM, is up 6% and up 7% in constant currency terms. The company sees FY EBITDA ‘in the range of £1,100m to £1,150m…’

• CEO Stella David says ‘Entain’s transformation continues at pace, with our strategic execution and expanding bandwidth delivering growth across our portfolio. Whilst we still have more to do, our Q3 performance is further evidence of the quality of our diverse business and its underlying momentum.’ She says ‘with Entain becoming ever stronger and BetMGM growing profitably, we are increasingly confident in delivering consistent underlying growth and generating more than £0.5bn of annual cash from 2028.’

The Rank Group has updated on Q1 trading saying that group LFL Net Gaming Revenue for the first quarter ended 30 September 2025 ‘grew 9% to £210.2m.’ it reports that on ‘a channel basis, digital like-for-like NGR for Q1 was up 13% and venues like-for-like NGR was up 7%….’

• Rank reports that Grosvenor LFL revenue grew by 8% whilst revenue at the group’s UK and Spanish bingo businesses both rose by 5%. It says that ‘digital like-for-like NGR growth of 13% was driven by a 15% growth in the UK business, within which Grosvenor grew 31% and Mecca grew 9%.’

• The company says that ‘Grosvenor venues like-for-like NGR grew 8%, with a 5% increase in visits and a 3% increase in spend per visit. Outside London, Grosvenor’s performance grew 10%. London grew 4% with a relatively quieter summer in the capital being offset by a significant step up in the performance of the Victoria Casino on London’s Edgware Road following its £15.0m refurbishment which completed in July.’

• It adds that ‘Mecca venues like-for-like NGR grew 5% in the period. Customer visits were down 1% on prior year, with spend per visit up 6%.’ In Spain, ‘Enracha venues continued to perform well with Q1 like-for-like NGR growth of 5%.’

• CEO John O’Reilly says ‘we have started the year strongly and are confident of delivering Group like-for-like operating profit in line with expectations, notwithstanding the significant cost increases we have incurred in employer national insurance contributions, the national living wage and the new statutory levy.’

• The CEO adds that ‘speculation regarding tax changes in the upcoming Budget is, inevitably, hanging over the business. We are engaged with the Treasury on the implications of tax changes on the viability of our venues, employment levels, future investment and the customer. Last year the Group generated £44.6m in profit after tax, having paid HMRC and local authorities £188.0m in taxes. The Rank Group, with its strong UK focus, is certainly paying its fair share.’

Podcaster AudioBoom has updated on Q3 trading saying that it achieved adjusted EBITDA profit of US$1.2 million in the quarter, up 18% on Q3 2024 (US$1.0 million). It adds that revenue in the quarter was US$20.4 million, up 9% on Q3 2024 (US$18.8 million). The company is undertaking a ‘strategic review’, that could include the sale of the company…

• CEO Stuart Last says ‘Audioboom’s positive performance has continued through the third quarter of the year and alongside record Q3 revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, the third quarter of 2025 marked a turning point in the Company’s story.’ He says ‘we expect Q4 2025 to be our best quarter ever. With more than US$79.0 million of advertising revenue already booked for 2025, we are set to end the year strongly with our expanded network in high demand from advertisers.’ Mr Last concludes ‘with good momentum and record performance ahead in Q4, the timing is right to assess future opportunities to maximise the Company’s value.’ He says ‘we have appointed J Goodwin & Co LLP to undertake a strategic review in order to consider a variety of outcomes and I look forward to updating shareholders on developments related to the strategic review in due course.’

Outdoor adventure company Zip World has reported numbers to 31 Dec 2024 to Companies’ House saying that revenues fell by 5.1% to £26.0m. Operating profit rose to £6.7m from £4.7m in the prior year, albeit after an exceptional credit of £935k relating to cancelled projects. The company took an exceptional charge of some £2.7m in the prior year and then recovered some of its costs from a supplier with whom it was in dispute. Operating profits net of exceptional costs were £5.7m in FY24, down from £7.4m in FY23. There is a modest amount of interest received and reported PBT was £6.7m in FY24 and £4.7m in FY23….

• Zip World reports that ‘EBITDA before exceptional charges was £7.944m (2023: £9.497m).’ The company reports that ‘rider numbers have also decreased compared to prior year by 38,000 (6%), which is consistent with the decrease in turnover.’

• It says ‘the directors attribute this performance to an increasingly challenging economic landscape in the UK with both Inflation and interest rate increases having a suppressant effect on consumer discretionary spending which has slowed the growth opportunities.’

• The company reports that it ‘considers this result to be an adjustment to historically buoyant trading levels rather than a trend of decline.’ It adds that it is ‘well placed to benefit from an anticipated upturn in the market in 2025.’ The accounts were signed on 29 September 2025 but the company gives little detail as to current trading.

Entain yesterday reported that BetMGM is trading ahead of expectations. It said that it is seeing ‘strong year-to-date momentum continuing across both Online Sports and iGaming.’ CEO Adam Greenblatt reports ‘BetMGM’s momentum from H1 continued into Q3, underpinned by the ongoing execution of our strategic plan.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The IMF believes that the UK will be the second-fastest-growing economy in the G7 this year.

Sterling mixed at $1.3345 and €1.1486. Oil lower at $62.18. UK 10 year gilt yield down 8 basis points at 4.57%. World markets mixed yesterday and London set to open around 41 points higher on reduced tariff worries as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

Grocery Sales Watch (1): The latest monthly ‘Kantar’ grocery sales figures (for the 4/12 weeks to Oct 5th) came out at 8am yesterday morning and the overview from the newly renamed Worldpanel by Numerator (following the recent sale of the Kantar Media analytics business) was headlined “Shoppers struggle to juggle cost, sustainability and health”, flagging that inflation edged up from 4.9% to 5.2% and that overall take-home grocery sales growth in the 4-week period dipped from +4.8% to +4.1%. In terms of retailer performance, Worldpanel flagged that Ocado was the fastest growing grocer again, with sales up by 13.6% over the 12 weeks (vs +4.3% for the industry). Lidl was up 10.8%, Aldi was up by 4.3%, Waitrose was up 3.7%, whilst Tesco saw 6.9% growth and Sainsbury’s increased sales by 5.2% over the latest 12 weeks, but Morrisons was up by only 1.7% and Asda was down by 3.2%. M&S Food
is not in Worldpanel’s official survey, but its performance was said to be +7.7% over the last 12 weeks. The latest monthly grocery sales figures from ‘Kantar’ Worldpanel’s great rival, NIQ (formerly known as Nielsen), come out at 8am this morning.

Yesterday’s/Today’s News: The M&S announcement about the extended tenure of Archie Norman as Chairman (for 3 years beyond the 9-year point that he will reach in September 2026) came out at 10am yesterday morning and we noted that the house broker issued a 2-side report praising the news at 10.01am… The Senior Independent Director, Fiona Dawson, said in the M&S statement that “Archie has been an exceptional Chair, steering an effective, engaged Board and putting in place a highly capable leadership team under Stuart Machin which is transforming M&S and building a stronger, better business. There remains much to do, and Archie’s deep knowledge of the business, drive and unique experience will be invaluable as we move to the next phase of the Reshaping for Growth plan”. The LVMH Q3 results were released after hours in Paris yesterday evening and the organic sales increase of
1% was a bit better than expected, driven by improved demand in China, “offering some solace to a luxury goods sector grappling with a prolonged slump” (according to Reuters). Back in London, today has brought the ProCook Q2 update and, with LFL sales up by 12.2%, the fast-expanding kitchenwares chains declares “Strong trading momentum, outperforming the market, reflecting strategic progress and commercial discipline. Confident in delivering a strong full year performance, in line with market expectations”. As well as the usual flurry of share buyback announcements, there has also been a trading update (for the six months to end Sept) from the well-respected landlord British Land, with Simon Carter, the Chief Executive of British Land, summing things up well: “Occupational fundamentals continue to favour our prime London office campuses and retail parks. Office attendance is accelerating,
retailers are expanding out of town, and supply remains very constrained across both markets”.

Today’s Press: According to the invaluable Guardian press email summary of the front-page headlines of today’s papers, the main story in the Guardian itself is “Tensions high as Israel cuts aid to Gaza in row over hostage remains”, while the Times has “Hamas kills its enemies on ceasefire Gaza streets”. “Bessent slams China’s trade warfare” is the lead in the Financial Times, while the Daily Mirror says “Boris DID harm our kids”, which is about schooling during Covid (and the testimony of Gavin Williamson to the Covid inquiry). The Daily Mail announces that “Labour isn’t working (again)”, citing inflation, jobs and wages figures. A similar line is taken by the Daily Express: “Reeves blow as prices rise and growth stalls”. The i paper reports “UK pension set to climb by 4.8% as triple lock helps buffer over-65s from inflation”. The Telegraph runs with “Mahmood: UK has lost control of its
borders”.

Growth Index Watch: The “Growth Index”, a UK business ranking created by ORESA, the executive search firm, has just produced the second edition of its “Retail Index” – a list of the UK’s top 100 retailers, ranked by two-year compound annual growth in revenues. The report highlights the marked rise of health and wellness brands and there are interesting interviews with the founders of several of these businesses, eg: Marisa Poster from the winning business, the matcha-based energy drink PerfectTed; Kate Prince from the natural supplement brand Ancient & Brave and Dylan McMahon from the challenger baby formula brand Kendamil. Alongside them are entrepreneurs from sectors as diverse as discounting (Martin Higginson of the Huddled Group), craft beer, waterproof jewellery, anti-frizz products and sustainable fashion (Andrew Xeni of Nobody’s Child).

News Flow This Week: Tomorrow brings the Travis Perkins Q3 update.