Economy, leased & tenanted pubs, jobs, PFD, Disney, PPHE & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We’ve mentioned it before but, when it comes to terrorising animals, there’s a size threshold below which our dog isn’t prepared to break into a sweat.

She’ll ignore sparrows, blue tits and, probably rodents. And she’s prepared not to savage tiny dogs but, if anything the size of a rabbit or, heaven help it a squirrel, comes into view, she’ll well and truly lose whatever thin veneer of domestication she’s got and go for it, big time.

But, as she’s a big, lumbering, noisy and smelly dog, virtually any animal with at least one functioning sense, is long gone before she’s got a chance to shred it.

And, as indicated above, even an invisibility cloak wouldn’t mask her odour or dampen the noise she’d make so it’s a odds on that persistence rather than a study of the probabilities is what keeps her going.

Still, it gets her out of the house.

Anyway, whilst there’s no football in the top two tiers this weekend, York City is at home to Morecombe and the best of luck to them. They’ve scored four goals in each of their last three matches and, whilst scoring four times, even if they’re all at the right end of the pitch, doesn’t guarantee you’ll win every match, you certainly shouldn’t lose many.

Have a good weekend and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The economy:

The Bank of England has “agents” (basically staff members) who gather intelligence from businesses and communities across the UK by engaging with them directly. They report at the same time that the Bank’s MPC updates on interest rates and, whilst they may get the wrong end of the stick from time to time (or be lied to), they give an insight into how the economy is doing.

Overview (a bit grim): The intelligence, gathered in the six weeks to early October, ‘continues to paint a picture of a flat economy’ with uncertainty heightened ahead of the upcoming Autumn Budget. The summary suggests that ‘retailers continue to see little volume growth’ with ‘weak’ consumer confidence ‘leading to low expectations for improvement into 2026.’

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Leased & tenanted pubs:

The Pubs Code Adjudicator has published elements of its 2025 Annual Tied Tenants Survey, adding extra detail and publishing individual data tables showing the survey performance of each of the six pub companies covered…

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Jobs market:

Job losses impact worker confidence and, ultimately, spending. Ineos, the carmaker owned by billionaire Jim Ratcliffe, is reported set to make hundreds of workers redundant. It currently employs 1,700 people and has said “several hundred” will go…

UK restaurants:

Lumina’s latest UK Restaurant Market Report suggests that the UK restaurant sector should grow revenues by around 1% per annum over the next three years to reach a total of £19.6bn by 2028….

More on the economy:

The ONS yesterday reported that GDP rose by only 0.1% in the three months to end-September and that it contracted by 0.1% in the month of September itself. Much of this has been put down to the cyber attack on JLR but, ahead of the Budget on 26 November, any contraction will be unhelpful…

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Other news:

DoorDash has reported that the rate of inflation in US restaurant prices is moderating. It says that inflation was 6% in early 2024 and it has slowed to 3.2% by this September.

The FT reports that Domino’s has turned to fried chicken as it believes that Britain is nearing peak pizza which, for a pizza delivery company in a maturing market, is something of a problem.

COMPANY NEWS:

The European Commission has begun an investigation into whether Red Bull has illegally restricted competition and abused its dominant market position. The EC will investigate whether Red Bull’s behaviour has been ‘keeping prices high and limiting choice of energy drinks for consumers.’

Restaurant chain Yolk has jettisoned three site (to take the estate to seven) as a part of its recently announced CVA.

Five Iron Golf is to open its first European location in London in Broadgate.

Not a particularly good day to report figures yesterday. Premier Foods’ shares finished down 2.2p or 1.3% whilst YNGA shed 16p or 2.0% on what looked like good figures and a reassuring statement. 

PREMIER FOODS – H1 CONFERENCE CALL:

Below extracts from of a note sent out post the conference call to clients. Trading comments – see also earlier email – Premier Foods highlights the fact that, as the weather ‘normalised around half way through Q2’, grocery sales picked up nicely. July was hot. The ‘exit rate’ for Q2 was better (in grocery). This ‘will step up in H2’. Price v volume? Historically ‘about 50:50.

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

PPHE has responded to ‘media speculation’ saying that Eli Papouchado and Boris Ivesha, who between them own c.44% of the company, ‘note the recent media speculation and confirm that they intend to hold a small handful of meetings with financial investors in relation to a range of potential options, from contributing growth capital to PPHE, to a potential partial monetisation of their stakes in PPHE….’

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Sky reports that, although the number of flights taken internationally continues to grow, the number of domestic UK flights has more than halved over the past 20 years….

Industrial action in Italy could disrupt flights today as air traffic controllers have called a nationwide strike.

CoStar reports that the US hotel industry reported positive stats in the week to 8 November, largely due to the week lapping the presidential election last year. Occupancy was up 2.5% at 64.2%, ADR was up by 3.6% at $162.70 and REVPAR rose by 6.2%.

OTHER LEISURE:

Walt Disney has reported Q4 numbers (to end-September) saying that its theme parks performed well but that the sales in its film and television businesses fell in the quarter. The shares fell by around 8% on the news. Disney reports revenue of $22.5bn in the quarter, unchanged on 2024, and short of analyst expectations of around $22.8bn….

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President Donald Trump has pardoned former Tottenham Hotspur owner Joe Lewis, who had pled guilty in January 2024 to charges that he had committed securities. Mr Lewis had been heavily fined but is reported to have sought the pardon so he could receive medical treatment and visit his grandchildren and great-grandchildren in the US.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For GDP comment, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

Sterling mixed at $1.3139 and €1.1293. Oil up at $64.04. UK 10 year gilt yield up 4 basis points at 4.44%. World markets lower and London set to open down around 53 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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