TGIF, Revel, PIER, EMAN, spending, economy, demographics & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Welcome to the New Year and, for many of us, to the return to work that we were maybe both putting off for as long as possible and slyly looking forward to as a way of getting some sort of order back into our lives.

But it’s also a welcome to all those jobs that you, I and everybody else had put off until ‘after Christmas’ because ‘after Christmas’ is now here and there’s no getting away from it.

Putting to one side those various resolutions, have a dry month, instigate a diet and walk the dog twice a day – which all failed by 2 Jan – hopefully it was a decent trading period for hospitality and, though Boxing Day seemed quiet, Christmas certainly did happen.

The festive and calendar Q4 trading updates will start soon (mostly retailers this week) but, if you have time to drop us a line to let us know how trading went, then we’d be delighted to collate something for later in the week.

And Hull City, how did they get on?

Won one, drew one lost one and one postponed. A true, middle of the division, performance. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Barclaycard – Calendar 2025 Report

Barclaycard has produced spending data for calendar 2025 saying that spending (at least that on the cards that it tracks) fell by 0.2% on the year. Add in the impact of inflation and this amounts to a c4% decline. Spending had risen by 1.6% in 2024 and by 4.1% in 2023. Both those years were also ‘challenged’ in terms or real growth. CPI was 2.5% in the year to December 2024 and 4.0% in December 2023….

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Economy:

KPMG UK’s latest Consumer Pulse survey suggests that 56% of consumers continue to feel financially secure (down 1% from the start of 2025) and 58% of people think the UK economy is getting worse (up from 43% when 2025 began)….

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Boxing Day:

Whilst Barclaycard predicted that UK shoppers were ‘set to spend £3.6 billion in the Boxing Day sales’, it would appear that spend was somewhat muted. The BBC reports MRI Software data as suggesting that by 3pm, visits to UK high streets were down 1.5% on 2024, while shopping centres saw a 0.6% fall….

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Demographics:

The Centre for Policy Studies has suggested that workers are being hit by tax increases whilst pensioners and those without jobs are being protected….

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Other news:

Business confidence: In its latest quarterly update on the UK economy, the British Chambers of Commerce reports that business confidence has fallen once again with tax rises the major concern. Some 63% of companies responding to its survey say that this remains their priority with higher labour expenses also an issue…

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Restricting opening hours: The Telegraph reports that pub owner Garry Mallen is one of several business leaders to tell it that ‘we’ve decided against employing university students this year, which historically we’ve done to fill the gaps during the summer months and at Christmas.’ He adds ‘you try to restrict the hours where you’ve got staff coming with not so much to do.’

Employment: The latest economic survey for The Times suggests that ‘UK unemployment may climb to an eleven-year high in 2026 amid a “moribund” economy that will require at least two interest rate cuts to stimulate growth and offset Rachel Reeves’s tax increases….’

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Junk food ads. These are to be limited on UK television from today in a move to tackle childhood (and presumably other) obesity levels. Food and drinks deemed to be high in fat, salt and sugar will no longer by advertised on TV before 21:00 and at any time online.

Discounting: Although this is limited compared to some other Januarys, perhaps because operators do not have the margin to give away, JD Wetherspoon has announced that it ‘is holding a January sale, including a pint of Worthington’s beer at 99p in more than 600 of the pubs….’

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COMPANY NEWS:

Sugarloaf TGIF Management, which took control of TGI Fridays in the UK only two months ago, is ‘preparing to implement a pre-pack administration of the business’ in a deal that will involve the loss of hundreds of jobs, reports Sky News…

The Revel Collective on 29 Dec. 25 reported that trading on AIM in its shares had ‘been temporarily suspended…pending publication of the Company’s annual audited accounts.’

The Times reports Wagamama as saying that it intends to enact a round of price increases next year as it battles the rising cost of labour and ingredients….

The Guardian reports that Brighton’s historic Palace Pier has been put up for sale after a decline in tourist numbers, a drop in profits and increase in costs in recent years….

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Private companies:

Private companies have nine months to report their numbers to Companies’ House and, if they’ve changed their year-end, then they have twelve. For this reason, a large number of companies with March year-ends (or date-changers with December year-ends) report in the period running up to Christmas and between Christmas and New Year and they may get overlooked as a result…

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Costa Coffee has reported higher losses. The Telegraph reports that its research ‘revealed that Costa was more expensive for lattes and cappuccinos than comparable Caffe Nero and Pret a Manger stores, although it was cheaper than Starbucks.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Sky reports that ‘some of Britain’s biggest public sector pension schemes are in talks to take a stake in Center Parcs as its Canadian owner finalises a recapitalisation of the holiday parks giant.’

Insolvency Insider reports that the holding company behind Ickenham Travel Group has entered administration, with Jonathan Beard and Gavin Savage of Begbies Traynor appointed as joint administrators.

Airports look set to pass higher costs on to their customers – both airlines and retailers – as higher rates bills will hit them in Q2 this year.

The Channel Tunnel suffered a major shutdown on New Year’s Eve. The problem is reported to have been resolved.

The CAA reports that Christmas Eve set a new record for the number of passengers handled and that day this year. Records go back to 1972.

Uber (and its competitors) may have to put prices up as the government is pushing ahead with its commitment to add VAT to online taxi services.

OTHER LEISURE:

Everyman Media Group plc reported on 29 December that ‘Alex Scrimgeour is stepping down from his role as Chief Executive with immediate effect. Current Non-Executive Director, Farah Golant CBE, will assume the role of Chief Executive on an interim basis, with the support of the broader management team and Board, until a permanent replacement has been found….’

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The Guardian reports that ‘gambling companies have spent nearly £5m to advertise on the London transport network since Sadiq Khan pledged to stop them from doing so, amid a prolonged impasse between the mayor’s office and the government.’

Chinese manufacturer BYD has overtaken Tesla as the top seller of electric cars, at least in terms of unit volumes.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Nationwide has reported that house price growth in the year to December was 0.6%, down on the 1.8% rate in the year to November.

S&P last week reported the December 2025 Manufacturing PMI for the UK at 50.6, a 15-month high…

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The UK’s FTSE 100 index briefly broke the 10,000 barrier on Friday, the first trading day of the New Year.

Compared with levels pre-Christmas, Sterling is down vs the US$ at $1.3420 but up vs the Euro at €1.1492. Oil is lower at $60.44 and the 10yr bond yield is slightly down at 4.54% (4.52% pre Christmas). Markets have been running hot and London is set to open around 55 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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