Trading, business rates, MARS, Staycity, Time Out, JW Lees & other:

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A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Whilst I can’t help thinking that it will age companies in much the same way that mullets and shoulder-pads have aged people of a certain age, It’s very fashionable these days to stick names together and, for a bit of added spice, perhaps add a capital letter in the middle.

A hyphen, or better still, nothing at all would arguably do as well.

But, on the above measure, the chippie should be TheChipShop, the local watering hole perhaps Booze-R-Us, bit retro that one and even humble Langton should be LangtonCapital.

However, having only just educated it that Langton was indeed a name and not a typo, I’m simply not sure that I could endure MS Word’s reproachful red squiggle every time I wrote the word down.

Furthermore, there are some people and bodies for whom it just wouldn’t work. I mean, you wouldn’t want to capitalise the R in the middle of ‘Therapist’, for example.

Trade would likely suffer – or certainly evolve materially and not in a good way.

Anyway, that’s enough of that. It’s the weekend and, before we pull stumps, just time to wish readers a restful one before we move on to the news:

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Recent trading:

M&B and Fuller’s yesterday reported positive trading numbers for the period (including Christmas) to 10 January….

• Towards the end of the trading day, M&B was up by 1.3% and Fuller’s shares were some 2.0% higher. The trading updates cast a positive glow over the remainder of the sector with JDW shares up 1.2%, Marston’s up 0.8% and Young & Co up by 0.7%. The market as a whole was some 0.6% better.

• The trading comments may seem to be at odds with complaints that business rates are set to rise sharply but, as the former relates to sales only and the latter speaks to cost, the comments are not inconsistent. Unless or until the Treasury gives some ground on its current proposals, both revenues and costs might rise. However, revenue could also weaken at some point, whilst costs to not often come down.

More on Trading:

The Oxford Partnership has updated on December trading saying that it ‘delivered the strongest engagement of the year for the UK On Trade’ but it adds that margins remain under pressure. The Partnership says ‘rising costs continued to cap real value and margin recovery…’

• In terms of unit numbers, the Partnership says ‘the number of operating venues rose to 100,018, lifting the number back above the 100,000 mark as temporary and marginal sites returned for the festive period.’

• It adds that ‘consumers stayed out longer than at any other point this year, with average dwell reaching 150 minutes, while occupancy increased to 63.9% reflecting genuinely fuller venues rather than simply extended visits.’ Average spend per head ‘climbed to £26.53, the highest level recorded in 2025, driven primarily by food-led festive occasions, group bookings and set menus.’

• The Partnership reports that opening hours remained steady. It concludes that ‘Christmas doesn’t just outperform other occasions, it anchors the year.’ It says that in ‘a challenging trading environment, festive performance remains structurally essential to annual outcomes for the UK On Trade.’

Business rates:

Details are still missing but the Chancellor has not ruled out extending support for hospitality businesses impacted by higher business rates from April this year, beyond pubs alone. All hospitality businesses are facing an end to Covid-era rates discounts but the speed with which the change will be introduced – and the rise in rateable values – has led to suggestions that a large number of pubs will become non-viable…

• The chancellor appears to have shifted from an earlier comment to the effect that she would not extend the relief. She later said she was ‘working with the hospitality sector’ whilst treasury officials have told the BBC that a package to specifically help pubs would be announced “in the coming days”.

• Chancellor Rachel Reeves told the BBC that ‘as that transitional relief comes to an end, although we’ve put in £4.3bn over the next three years, we need to make sure that we do that in a balanced way that particularly supports our pubs and the hospitality sector.’

• Speaking to the wider hospitality industry, Kate Nicholls, chair at UKH, says ‘it’s good to see recognition of wider hospitality and that she is talking about support beyond pubs’. Indeed so. however, Rachel Reeves has said words to the effect that somebody, somewhere has got to pay tax if government spending is to be maintained and the hunt will be on for other ways of raising revenue.

The Telegraph reports that pubs are being ‘penalised’ for operating in busy areas as the ratable value of their properties will have increased. It says Labour will ‘turn pubs in thriving areas into cash cows….’

• The ‘paper says that pubs in areas with a higher concentration of such units will face larger increases in business rates than with other sites. It quotes UKH chair Kate Nicholls as saying that rates hikes comprise a cost that businesses could ‘ill-afford and are unable to pass on, in full, to their customers – particularly when they’re operating in very competitive areas.’

• And BBPA CEO Emma McClarkin says ‘for years, many pubs have been left hanging by a thread because they are struggling to cope with disproportionately high rates and taxes that wipe out their profits.’ She adds the ‘figures show that pubs have borne the brunt of new business rates and many simply won’t cope, which is why it’s welcome that the Government is listening and looking at measures to support our locals.’ Ms McClarkin added ‘pubs are a unique part of our culture, and we keenly await the details of the Government’s plans to ensure they remain in the heart of communities.’

Other news:

Outlook for pubs. Christie & Co has updated on its views on the pub industry in the current year saying that it expects the market to remain polarised…

• It says that ‘pubs that are well-invested, with a strong offering, will remain relevant and resilient, and those which are unable to invest will struggle. We are already seeing the signs of an increase in distress. However, while the mid-market proves more challenging, demand for pubs is strong at the top and bottom ends of the market.’

• The agent reports ‘we expect the larger pub companies to accelerate the churning of their estates and reinvest proceeds to ensure that they are well-positioned to compete in a market where the consumer will be more discerning than ever. As customer habits continue to evolve, pubs need to ensure that they go far beyond providing a rudimentary food and drink offer. Consolidation may also enable costs to be spread, and we see the potential for an uptick in M&A activity.’

Insolvency pressures. Alexander Muir of Hilco has said that, whilst retail, hospitality, and construction remain the most heavily affected sectors subject to cash flow pressures, other sectors are also feeling the strain…

• Insolvency insider quotes Will Wright, UK CEO at Interpath, as saying that pressure in retail, leisure, and hospitality is likely to intensify as higher operating costs intersect with tighter household budgets. He says ‘we do expect to see an uptick in restructuring activity.’ He says that businesses that succeed will be those that act early, reassess underperforming assets, and focus relentlessly on cash.

Coffee wholesale prices. The International Coffee Organization has reported that wholesale coffee prices fell by 7.8% between November and December. The ICO says that supply problems had eased.

Ireland. Alcoholic drink exports from Ireland rose by 2% to €2 billion in 2025, this despite tariffs imposed by the US.

Prosecco sales are reported to have risen by 1.1% in volume terms in 2025. Some 667 million bottles were exported worldwide. The US, the UK and France are the three largest export markets.

COMPANY NEWS:

Marston’s. Shareholder Bradley L. Radoff who, with affiliates owns around 3% of Marston’s ordinary shares, has sent an open letter to fellow shareholders saying that he will vote against the re-election of the Company’s five non-executive members of the Board of Directors at the group’s AGM on 28 January. The five directors in question are Chair Ken Lever, Octavia Morley, Rachel Osborne, Bridget Lea and Sir Nick Varney….

• It’s easier to problem-spot than it is to problem-solve. Nonetheless, Mr Radoff writes ‘late last year, I had multiple conversations with Marston’s Board Chair and management during which I stressed the importance of initiating a capital return program.’ He pushed for share re-purchases but says there is currently ‘no commencement of a dividend or share buyback.’

• He said promises that ‘shareholder returns are expected to commence once leverage reduces below 4.0x’ were too vague. He says the directors ‘own a paltry 0.21% of Marston’s and do not act like owners.’ He says the board should ‘immediately commence capital returns to shareholders and increase them only as it deleverages. The Board also could have prioritized the sale of non-core real estate if it wanted to accelerate deleveraging.’

• Mr Radoff says he believes that ‘non-executive Chair Ken Lever is being strongly influenced by his relationship with Aberforth Partners LLP, the Company’s largest shareholder.’ He says ‘based on my due diligence, I believe that Aberforth does not support a buyback, which helps to explain why the Company has resisted doing one. If Aberforth supported a buyback, it would happen.’ The shareholder concludes ‘I hope that the Company will revisit its capital allocation framework to accelerate shareholder returns and maximize long-term value for those that have actually invested in the Company.’

JW Lees has reported a record ever trading month for December. It says that ‘managed Houses led the charge, with Christmas Day sales up +20.5% on 2024 and over the six-week trading period to include Christmas and New Year retail sales were up +9.9%, with drink sales up +8.4%, food sales up +10.4% and bedroom sales up +15.7%….’

• JW Lees goes on to say that ‘the three-week core Christmas period from 15th December to 4th January was particularly busy with retail sales up +14.1%.’

• MD William Lees-Jones says ‘it was a perfect storm with Christmas Day falling on a Thursday and no snow or named storms in the festive period and there was probably some relief after the Chancellor’s budget since things were not as grim for consumers as had been trailed in the media.’

• Mr Lees Jones adds ‘we will continue to lobby the Chancellor to make changes to both inheritance taxes and business rates since we believe that well run family businesses and the hospitality sector are critical for growth in the UK economy and taxing these sectors to the hilt will stop growth.’

Soho House has said that it has secured around $200 million in alternative financial commitments to fund its planned de-listing.

Time Out markets has closed its units in Chicago and Boston saying that they will cease to operate from 23 January…

• Both markets opened in 2019. The company blames a fall in footfall and higher costs. CEO of Time Out Markets Michael Marlay says ‘footfall until today remains inconsistent in the area due to ongoing hybrid working and in addition, operating costs have increased – all of which prevents consistent profitability.’

• Time Out said ‘it has been an honour to serve Chicago, and we have loved our time here—Chicago is a fantastic city with outstanding food and cultural scenes.’ It adds ‘we want to thank our team, our chefs and restaurateurs who truly are the best of the city. It is thanks to all of them that the Chicago Market has been a wonderful place for our guests whom we also would like to thank wholeheartedly.’ It said virtually the same re Boston.

JD Wetherspoon has been recognised by the Top Employers Institute as a Top Employer United Kingdom 2026.

Urban Pubs & Bars has added former BrewDog site, the Birdcage, in East London.

Keystone Brewing Group is reported to have filed a second notice of intention to appoint administrators in a further attempt to secure funding.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Staycity Group has announced the acquisition of a second location in Vienna, Austria, which will be developed as part new-build and part conversion. The company says ‘the location, expected to be completed by 2028. is in Vienna’s 4th District within close proximity to tube, bus and tram stations which take around 15 minutes to reach central Vienna.’

CoStar reports that the U.S. hotel industry reported occupancy down 2.4pps at 48.1% in the week to 10 January. Daily rate was down by 0.9% and REVPAR was some 3.3% lower.

Hilton is to extend its presence in the aparthotel market via a new partnership with aparthotel company Placemakr.

OTHER LEISURE:

The Times reports an interview with BOWL CEO Stephen Burns who confirmed that the weather ‘is a massive factor in our business.’ Wet weather tends to benefit indoor leisure facilities…

• Since its IPO, ‘Hollywood Bowl has steadily grown its portfolio from 54 sites to 77 and is aiming for 95 venues in Britain by 2035. Several locations will open this year, including a venue in Cardiff featuring electric go-karting.’ This will ‘be an interesting test’ says the CEO.

X (was Twitter) is to prevent its Grok AI tool from creating naked pictures of real people. The rule change will apply to both free and paid users.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS yesterday reported that the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November, more than had been expected. The services sector was up by 0.3%, manufacturing was up by 1.1% (on a Jaguar Land Rover bounce-back) but the construction industry declined by 1.3%.

UK bond yields yesterday fell to their lowest level since December 2024.

The RICS has said that estate agents are becoming more optimistic with a net balance of 34% of respondents to its poll expecting transaction volumes to rise rather than fall.

Sterling lower at $1.3381 and €1.1533. Oil down at $63.47. UK 10 year gilt yield up from 13 month lows by 3 basis points at 4.37%. World markets better yesterday but Far East down in Friday trade. London set to open down around 9 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

Today’s News: Apart from all the share buyback announcements, the only news out is from Next on its B shares distribution to shareholders, that was approved at yesterday’s EGM: the B shares have already been redeemed today for 360p per B Share and shareholders will receive payment on or before Wednesday 28 January. The Dunelm Q2 update yesterday covered the 13 weeks to Dec 27th and was headlined “Solid first half performance in a challenging environment”, but Q2 total sales growth was only 1.6%, after a strong Q1, not helped by weakness in furniture sales: “trading was more challenging in the second quarter, particularly around Black Friday and continuing into December, highlighting the ongoing challenging macroeconomic environment”. The company went on to say that “since the end of the quarter we have seen customers respond well to our offers in the Winter Sale, with overall growth
higher than we saw in Q2”, but PBT for the first half is expected to be down from £123.2m to c£112m-£114m and Dunelm warned that “We expect PBT for the full-year to be at the lower end of consensus expectations” (of £214m-£227m).

Today’s Press (1): In terms of the front-page headlines of today’s papers, according to the invaluable press summary email from the Guardian, the Guardian itself leads with “Sacked Jenrick defects to Reform with fiery attack on ‘failed’ Tories” and elsewhere, it’s all Robert Jenrick as well. “Jenrick: Tories broke Britain” is top story at the Telegraph, the Daily Mirror has “Farage’s party of Tory failures” and the i paper runs with “Day of poison and betrayal as UK’s right-wing feud deepens”. “Jenrick joins Reform after Badenoch gives him sack for plotting to defect” is the FT lead, the Daily Mail has “Stop fighting each other and end the Labour nightmare” and the Sun splashes with “TraiTories”. The Times says “Jenrick defects to Reform after sacking by Badenoch”.

Today’s Press (2): In terms of Retail news in the papers today, the Dunelm profit warning seems to be overshadowed by more coverage of the problems of Asda: the Telegraph flags that “Asda to axe managers after Christmas disaster”, whilst one of the main Business stories in the Times is “Asda hit by debt sell-off as bleak Christmas spooks investors”, following up on the FT story that “Asda’s debt hit by worries over falling sales”.

News Flow Next Week: After the disappointing trading news from Dunelm yesterday, there will be a lot of interest in the DFS update on Tuesday. Wednesday then brings the JD Sports update, the Burberry Q3 and the Currys update. On Thursday we get the B&M Q3 update, The Works’ interims, the Wickes update and the ASOS AGM, with the monthly GFK Consumer Confidence index and the ONS Retail Sales figures for December following first thing on Friday.