YNGA, JDW, PFD, business rates, costs, holiday demand & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So, we’re currently soldiering on through an internet outage and, working from a tethered mobile is slow, inconvenient and expensive.

And that makes an internet outage, two water outages and a power cut – the latter while we were away from home from a few days pre-Christmas, and which obliged us to cook our partly defrosted Christmas turkey and throw away a year’s worth of frozen fruit – in the last few weeks.

And, whilst all of the above isn’t the end of the world, it is a bit of a pain.

The email today could be a shade short. And the Line Engineer only gives a ‘two-working-day’ assurance so this could drag on a bit.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Costs & inflation, lead indicators:

The ONS has reported the first rise in inflation, in the year to December 2025, in five months. But did we have an inkling? Yes, probably, but what are the lead indicators? Cost of labour: Around three quarters of the economy is generated in the service sector, meaning that wages will be a major influence. The ONS has just also updated on wage growth, but this series is always some months out of date. However, in the absence of anything else, wage growth less productivity growth (of which there is little), would be a decent proxy for inflation….

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Business rates:

City AM reports that chancellor Rachel Reeves has ‘hinted’ that ‘pubs will be the only businesses to benefit from the government’s business rates U-turn as other hospitality firms will be shut out from tax relief.’ Ms Reeves told reporters at Davos that ‘the situation the pubs face is different from other parts of the hospitality sector but we will be setting out the detail in the next few days….’

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More on costs:

Reuters carries an interview with Maurice Abboudi, owner of five Japanese restaurants in London, who says that he had shelved plans for a new site and other investments as any profit he once made is being swallowed up by additional costs…

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Other news:

Jobs market. Some 400 jobs are reported to be at risk in the wake of retailer Next’s purchase of luxury footwear business Russell & Bromley from administration. Next has said it will only retain three shops with as many as 33 possibly set to close.

The Scottish Beer & Pub Association has welcomed Aberdeen City Licensing Board’s decision to grant a blanket 3am licensing extension during the World Cup this coming summer. In addition, bars will be allowed to stay open for 30 minutes after the final whistle of Scotland’s matches, the latest of which kicks off at 2am.

Brazilian coffee exports have risen to a record value of US$15.6 billion in 2025, despite US tariff threats. However, volumes are down by over 20% and prices have risen.

YOUNG & CO – CHRISTMAS & Q3 TRADING UPDATE

Young & Co reports ‘exceptional trading over the festive period’. It says that LFL sales for the three-weeks to 5 January rose by 11.2% ‘against a very strong prior year comparator.’ The company says that ‘on key days, including Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day, trading was particularly good with like-for-likes up 12.3%.’ It says that the former City Pub estate delivered ‘26% growth over Christmas and Boxing Day, reflecting the impact of its alignment with the wider Young’s proposition since acquisition.’ Total managed revenue for the ‘14 weeks ending 5 January was up 5.6% and, on a like-for-like basis up 5.7%’. The company says this builds ‘on the positive momentum reported in our interim results.’ The year-to-date managed sales are +5.4% LFL. YNGA says the ‘performance is a further demonstration of Young’s strategy of continued investment in its premium and
differentiated estate.’

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JD WETHERSPOON – Q2 TRADING UPDATE:

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COMPANY NEWS:

JDW yesterday cautioned that, though its sales progression has been consistently ahead of the market, profits would move backwards in H1 and they may well give ground at the full year as well. The shares fell by around 8% or 59p to 679p…

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Other companies reporting yesterday included Premier Foods. The company’s shares finished the day up by 7% or 12p at 181p on the back of raised full year forecasts and reassurance that the group was picking up some sales as consumers perhaps moved down from eating out in restaurants to cooking their own food.

Peet’s Coffee in the US is reported set to close around 25 units in the San Francisco area by the end of this month. The company ended 2024 with 255 outlets having reached almost 400 at the end of 2019.

Sky reports ‘outrage’ and the newly introduced price of £1.99 for a hash brown in McDonald’s restaurants….

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Artisanal Spirits updates on full year trading saying that ‘trading in the year ended 31 December 2025 was in line with expectations with in-market trading improving in H2 versus H1 in the key geographies of UK, Europe, USA and China.’ The company will report results on 30 March.

Fuller’s has reported that it is establishing a ‘new partnership with premium and sustainable coffee brand, illy – which is now available for customers to enjoy in its pubs and hotels.’ Director Oliver Rosevear says ‘customers can now enjoy high quality coffee that has less impact on the planet and supports its farming communities.’

PREMIER FOODS – Q3 TRADING UPDATE:

Q3 is the group’s largest quarter and, with a strong performance now in the bag, Premier Foods has guided towards upgrades. The ‘Branded Growth Model’ has worked well. The group now has the cash flow to invest in marketing, capex and selective acquisitions. New ranges contributed strongly in Q3. This was ‘one of the most comprehensive programmes we have ever put in place’. The positive impact will continue. Extending into new categories / companies: Sales here up 29% this quarter (on top of very strong sales growth a year ago). Fuel10k is driving this. Spice Tailor and Merchant Gourmet also performed well. Exports picked up sharply. Australia performed particularly well.

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Holiday costs: Travel Trade Gazette reports a number of operators as saying that, when it comes to holidays, they are somewhat concerned that price rises could price out some families this summer…

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Uber is reported to have abandoned its 2030 net zero pledge when it comes to carbon emissions. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi warned earlier this week that the move to an all-electric fleet in major UK, US and European cities by 2030 was ‘just not going to happen’.

OTHER LEISURE:

Accountant BDO reports that record revenues and transfer spending seen in the UK’s Premier League were covering for deeper financial problems in the lower leagues…

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

The EU appears to be threatening to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US ‘very quickly’. There had been talk of the so-called ‘Big Bazooka’ taking up to a year to implement…

Although it may be overtaken by events, the European Parliament has suspended the approval of the trade deal agreed with the US in July.

Sterling mixed at $1.3425 and €1.1490. Oil up at $65.21. UK 10 year gilt yield down 1 basis point at 4.45%. World markets heading better into the Trump back-down at Davos and London set to open around 72 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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