Barclaycard data, jobs, politics & pubs, Pat Val, McDonald’s & other:

PREMIUM EMAIL – PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I find slang quite interesting.

I mean we could be here all day but we’ll keep it short and suggest that it’s doubly interesting when we consider that we might be witty when using a nationality as a part of a phrase but then feign upset when we find that they say the same thing about us.

When we say ‘to take French leave’, for example, meaning to run away, it’s worth noting that the French say that, when you skedaddle, you’ve ‘left like the English’.

Specifically, il a parti comme les anglais or, if you want to suggest somebody’s crept away on the quiet, it would be Il / elle a filé à l’anglaise,

And a French letter is a Capote Anglaise – or so I’m told.

An English cloak or some such and there are several others, and that’s before you get around to referring to people by what they eat. Because, whether it’s frogs or roast beef or cabbage or whatever it might be, it seems that that’s quite a common trait, too.

Anyway, we’re all friends now so, in order that remain the case, let’s move on to the news:

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Barclaycard spending report:

Barclaycard has produced spending data for January saying that ‘consumer card spending rose by a sub-inflation 0.8% year-on-year in January.’ This is materially negative in real terms. But at least it is positive in nominal terms as December was down 1.7% and November was down by 1.1%. Re consumer trends, it says that ‘essential spend fell 1.1%, marking six months of decline, but discretionary spending grew 1.6%, led by the strong performance of online retail over the January sales period.’

• It features entertainment, saying it was a ‘bright spot, boosted by the cold weather, awards season excitement and the runaway success of new TV shows such as Heated Rivalry.’ The card issuer reports that ‘consumer confidence remained stable in January, with most measures on par with December, when they improved marginally.’ It says that ‘confidence in household finances remained at 66%…while confidence in consumers’ ability to live within their means also stayed flat, at 71%’.

• Pubs, Bars & Restaurants: As mentioned previously, these numbers are a little too blunt to be interpreted closely. Pubs, for example, include ‘bars’ where, as we know, performance has been dire. Nonetheless, Pubs, Bars & Clubs saw spend up 2.6% on 1.0% more transactions. And restaurants includes ‘cafes and bakeries’, the performance of which may differ greatly from that of the casual diners. The above food group as a whole saw spend up 1.7% on 0.5% fewer transactions. Takeaway and fast food sales are reportedly down 0.3% with the number of transactions down by 4.2%.

• Entertainment: Barclaycard reports that entertainment spending was up 8.3% in January on 1.9% more transactions. Digital content & subscription spend was up by 9.3% on 4.3% more transactions.

• Holidays & Travel: Barclaycard points out that Hotel, Resort & Accommodation spend was up 0.3% on 3.6% fewer transactions. And travel spend rose by 1.4% in Sterling terms on 2.5% fewer transactions.

• Barclays comment: Karen Johnson, Head of Retail at Barclays, comments that ‘both big and small screen entertainment thrived last month, helped by the buzz around awards season favourites, and people spending more time at home.’ She says that ‘specialist foods stores, in particular, saw a boost, with premiumisation of pantry staples boosting sales, particularly those supporting health goals, even when sticking to a budget.’

• And Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, adds ‘improving consumer confidence is absolutely key to the UK’s economic outlook in 2026.’ He says ‘with that in mind, the stabilisation in this month’s survey is an encouraging step in the right direction.’ He concludes ‘with inflation set to fall quickly in the coming months, interest rates on course to ease and some early signs of resilience in wider activity, the scene is set for confidence to pick up, supporting growth in spending as the year goes on.’

• Langton comment: The overall number here remains firmly negative in real terms. Barclaycard does pick out some bright spots and, across the whole economy, there will always be some. However, below the top line revenue figure, costs, not covered here, are now a major issue from the beginning of April when NIC rises and threshold changed and the NLW rose. With revenues down in real terms, short term trading, it would appear, remains challenging.

Jobs market:

Tesco has warned that the UK is ‘sleepwalking into a quiet epidemic’ of joblessness. UK boss, Ashwin Prasad, said that he believed fewer people were in work than would be appropriate and that taxpayers were spending ‘an ever increasing proportion of our national income on out-of-work benefits….

• The Guardian reports Mr Prasad as saying that there had been a ‘clear, gradual change’ over the last decade of people falling out of work. He called on the government and businesses to work together to tackle the issue, arguing that it was damaging the UK’s standing on the world stage. He says ‘we cannot afford to be a country that lets the next generation languish on the sideline.’ Over 9 million people aged 16 to 64 in the UK are classed as economically inactive.

• Mr Prasad says ‘my perspective from being a major employer in this country is that far fewer people are at work than they could be. This means instead of investing in parts of national life that might stimulate investment and growth into the wider economy, we are spending an ever increasing proportion of our national income on our out-of-work benefits. We have been sleepwalking into a quiet epidemic that is keeping millions of people out of work.’

• Elsewhere, Lloyds Banking Group has said that it is to cut a further 95 sites. It says that 53 Lloyds branches, 31 Halifax branches and 11 Bank of Scotland branches will closed. The impact on high street footfall will be negative and some 291 jobs are at risk.

Politics & Pubs:

The Daily Mail reports that ‘the Tories have accused Reform UK of ‘fantasy numbers’ after leading publicans swung behind Nigel Farage’s plans to save British pubs this week.’ It says that the promises ‘won the backing of two of Britain’s biggest pub chains – Fuller’s and JD Wetherspoon’ but quotes Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride as saying these were just ‘more fantasy numbers from Reform.’ Fuller’s CEO, Simon Emeny, has since said that ‘we champion policies that support our UK pub sector. We do not support a specific UK political party….’

• Mr Stride says that the promises ‘would ‘blow a £10bn hole in the public finances’ and were ‘totally irresponsible’. He says ‘their sums just don’t add up. How can anyone trust a word Reform say if they won’t explain where any of it comes from?’ The £10bn gap would cost around 1 percentage point rise in the rate of VAT or maybe c150k fully-costed jobs in the public sector.

• We commented earlier in the week that, despite support from Sir Tim Martin, the caution expressed regarding Reform’s plans was perhaps driven by a) scepticism regarding the funding of the proposals and b) Liz Truss flashbacks and the memory that the last time a moron premium was attached to government bonds, it had a rapid and hurtful impact on borrowing costs and negatively impacted borrowers and consumers…

• On the numbers, Propel writes ‘Reform’s policies don’t hold up’ and adds that there could be a £10bn shortfall in funding the scheme per annum. This seems to be the figure picked up by Mr Stride. Our number is a bit lower, not all hospitality companies are VAT registered in the first place but the MCA adds that the maths was ‘as wobbly as an old bar stool’ and, writing in The Times, Dominic Lawson, son of former chancellor Nigel Lawson, suggested that the ‘booze-for-kiddies’ cash transfer from tax payers to drinkers and pubs could have been costed by somebody already under the influence of drink. On the plus side, at least financially, were the industry to pass on any of the reduced VAT to customers, volumes could increase

Other news:

Lumina Intelligence reports that eating out volumes fell in the last quarter with market penetration said to be down by 1 percentage point in the 13 weeks to 28 December 2025.

After farmers blamed them for a drop in the demand for spuds, the FT has suggested that weight-loss jabs have helped to push sugar price to five-year low

French wine and spirits exports fell by 3% in volume in 2025 reports the Federation des Exportateurs de Vins & Spiritueux. In money terms, exports dipped by 8% in value to a five-year low of €14.3bn.

COMPANY NEWS:

Just weeks before long-awaited Patisserie Valerie fraud trial due to start in Southwark Crown Court, the date has been pushed back to 4 January 2028. This effectively means a 10 year gap between the alleged crimes and the collapse of the company and the subsequent trial. All four people charged have pleaded not guilty.

Innis & Gunn founder Dougal Sharp has called on the government to stop treating the pub industry as a cash cow. He says ‘in my four decades in brewing and pubs, I’ve never known it to be tougher. Hundreds of pubs are being forced to close every year across the UK, taking thousands of jobs with them….’

• Mr Sharp says ‘while this is often dismissed as a consequence of ‘market forces’, the reality is far more damaging. Each closure represents lost connections, lost social interaction, and the erosion of community life.’

McDonald’s reported Q4 numbers yesterday, ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. The company said that it still expects the year ahead to remain difficult but the focus on cheaper meals has led to higher foot traffic at restaurants. The company CEO Chris Kempczinski says ‘as I’ve said before, and I will say again, McDonald’s is not going to get beat on value and affordability.’ He told an earnings call that ‘it’s in our DNA, and we remain agile to respond as appropriate to a dynamic, competitive landscape.’ The group reported revenue of $7.01 billion during the fourth quarter, up 10% year-over-year. It said that LFL sales 5.7% globally, with a 6.8% gain in the U.S. Adjusted earnings per share grew to $3.12 from $2.83.

AB InBev has reported full year and Q4 numbers to end-December saying that revenue rose by 2.5% in the quarter to by 2.0% in the full year. The full year numbers was $15.6bn. Full year volumes were down by 2.3% with Q4 down by a lesser 1.5%. Normalised EBITDA for the year was up 4.9% and up by 2.3% in Q4. Full year EBITDA was $5.5bn. EPS using constant currencies was up by 2.1% in Q4 and up by 9.4% in the year as a whole…

• CEO Michel Doukeris says ‘beer plays an important role in bringing people together and creating moments of celebration. In 2025, we executed our strategy, made disciplined capital allocation choices and delivered growth within our outlook for the year, even as we navigated a dynamic consumer environment.’

• The CEO says ‘we exit 2025 with improved momentum and enter 2026 well positioned to engage consumers with our megabrands and an unparalleled lineup of mega platforms. Thank you to our colleagues for their ongoing commitment, hard work and passion for our business.’

Neos Hospitality is reported to have paid £10m for the Revel Collective’s bars business, according to documents now available, and the Peach Pubs business was sold to Coral Pub Company for £6.5m….

• Secured creditors were owed £28m at the time of collapse, implying that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors or for shareholders.

Restaurant chain Benugo is reported to have entered into a partnership with John Lewis to revamp 32 of its in-store restaurants….

• Restaurant Online reports that the cafe brand will work with the department store chain to redesign the restaurants with a focus on fresh, high-quality food and welcoming spaces.

OakNorth reports that it has provided £7.5m loan to support the expansion of Royal Elizabeth Yard for purpose-built whisky maturation facilities near South Queensferry.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

UKH has called on the chancellor to scrap plans for a Visitor Levy in England saying that ‘more than 200 signatories from leading accommodation providers including Butlin’s, Haven, Hilton, IHG Hotels & Resorts, Merlin Entertainments, Parkdean Resorts, Travelodge and Whitbread warn that the proposed holiday tax will “hit families hardest, put jobs at risk and drain money from local businesses and communities”’….

• UKH says ‘bosses warn that “holidays are for relaxing, not taxing”, with the proposed tax meaning Brits would face an extra £100 or more for a two-week holiday in the UK. It could force families to shorten trips, skip travel altogether or head overseas, spending their money elsewhere.’

• It adds that ‘the letter also says there will be significant damage to local communities across England that rely on tourism for survival, as fewer visitors mean fewer local jobs and lower spending at local businesses’ and says that ‘the impact of a Holiday Tax goes well beyond the people who provide accommodation. Fewer visitors mean lower spending at local businesses like restaurants, cafes, pubs, taxi firms and shops. In many places, it is tourist spending which keeps high streets alive, supporting the small businesses that define our communities.’

Edinburgh Rocco Forte hotel The Balmoral reports that it has once again been awarded a Forbes Five-Star rating, ‘reaffirming its position among the world’s finest luxury hotels. Notably, it remains the only hotel in Edinburgh and one of just two in Scotland to hold this prestigious accolade.’

OTHER LEISURE:

The Times writes that activist investment firm, Ancora Holdings, has taken a $200 million stake in Warner Bros Discovery and urged the Hollywood giant to walk away from its ‘inferior’ $83 billion deal with Netflix.

Online addiction. The BBC reports that the head of Instagram has defended his platform against claims it caused mental health damage to minors, arguing in a California court that even seemingly excessive use of social media does not equal an addiction….

• Adam Mosseri, who has led Instagram for eight years, testified in the landmark trial that began this week in Los Angeles, making him the first high-profile executive to appear. Whether use was a problem was “a personal thing,” Mosseri said, explaining that one person could use Instagram “more than you and feel good about it.” The same, presumably, could be said about hard drugs. Mr Mosseri said that using Instagram for 16 hours a day was ‘problematic’, but he would not be drawn into agreeing that it was an addiction.

Frog Bikes, reported to be favoured by Prince Louis, has made a court application to hire administrators.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS has this morning reported that UK real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter….

• It said that ‘GDP is estimated to be 1.0% higher in Quarter 4 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago’ and says that ‘GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% annually in 2025, following growth of 1.1% in 2024’. it says that, due to a rise in population, ‘real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1%, but is up by 0.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago.’

Chancellor Rachel Reeves called for a closer relationship with the EU, saying it is the ‘biggest prize’ for UK economic growth.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has said that there are early signs of the UK domestic housing market having ‘turned a corner’. It says that only a net balance of 15% of professionals surveyed reported a fall in new buyer inquiries, rather than a rise, in January. Whilst still negative, this is better than the 21% who said the same thing in December and 29% who saw this in November.

Sterling mixed at $1.3617 and €1.1485. Oil up at $69.57. UK 10 year gilt yield up 4 basis points at 4.55%. World markets mixed yesterday but London set to open around 42 points higher as at 6.30am.

The US Department of Labour reported yesterday that the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, well ahead of estimates. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• Today’s News: Apart from the usual flurry of share buyback announcements, the only UK Retail company news out this morning is that THG’s Myprotein brand has entered a strategic licensing partnership with Greencore: to launch a new line of protein-enriched convenience foods, including salads and wraps, which will be available in Sainsbury’s. Over in France, Hermes have reported their Q4 results today, with Q4 revenue growth of 9.8% beating expectations of 8.4% growth (on a constant currency basis).

• Today’s Press: The front-page headlines of today’s paper continue to be dominated by the pressures on the embattled PM, according to the press summary email from the Guardian. The Guardian itself leads with “Select female deputy to end ‘boys club’ in No 10, PM told”, while the Daily Mail has “Labour women’s fury over second paedophile crisis” and the Telegraph: “Labour ‘up for’ closer ties with Europe”. “PM knew his peerage pick had backed sex offender” says the Times, whilst the FT runs with “Biggest wealth manager take beating in latest round of disruption from AI”.