January Tracker, spending intentions, costs, Heavitree, jobs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I remember someone suggesting that John Major tucked his shirt into his underpants and, whilst I’d wager a substantial amount that the accusation was without merit, it was deemed appropriate enough to stick.

It implied caution, extreme small-c conservatism, it seemed the sort of thing his Spitting Image puppet would do and stick it did.

But I don’t think he was ever accused of ironing his carrier bags as that, whilst confirming obsessive tidiness, would go a stage further and imply stupidity.

Because, whilst I’m not sure of the melting point concerned, I wouldn’t want to risk having to scrape burnt plastic off an iron and, worse, having to explain why I was doing it.

And it’s never occurred to me to iron my carrier bags, honestly.

But maybe I should have said that bit first, they would look neat, wouldn’t they?

Anyway, it’s Friday, we’ve made it to the end of another week. Good luck to Hull (at home to QPR), have a good weekend and let’s move on to the news:

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JANUARY HOSPITALITY SALES TRACKER:

NIQ (was CGA) reports that Britain’s leading managed hospitality groups managed saw LFL sales fall by 0.1% in January (against a 2.9% rise in LFL sales in the much more meaningful month of December). This is a) negative and b) is substantially worse when the impact of inflation is factored in. The Tracker ‘highlights the challenging trading environment facing the sector in 2026.’ It says that the positive (but sub-inflation) number in December maybe ‘left many consumers keeping a close lid on their outgoings in January.’ It adds that ‘trading was also impacted by prolonged wet weather in many parts of the country, and by participation in ‘Dry January’’.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

The Oxford Partnership’s January 2026 Market Watch Snapshot reveals that ‘while UK hospitality venues remained busy at the start of the year, post-Christmas moderation led to softer drinking intensity and lower consumption levels….’

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Immediate outlook:

Pay.UK considers current spending decisions, saying ‘a third of Brits use “No spend February” to tackle life admin as winter pressures squeeze budgets.’ Some 34% of respondents ‘say February is when they finally tackle life admin they have been putting off. It says ‘popular money saving hacks include pantry challenges, bank rewards and automated saving tools…’

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Costs:

The Federation of Small Businesses has warned that small businesses may face an ‘unprecedented cost crunch’ in April this year when the minimum wage rises, rates bills increase and a number of other tax rises impact their businesses…

Jobs market

The Telegraph reports that ‘retailers are preparing to cut more jobs’ and says that over half of retail chiefs are planning to reduce headcount because of concerns around labour costs…

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Other news:

Social media: Gordon Ramsay has said that social media influencers are now one of the major forces dominating demand in the restaurant industry. The media may have changed but the influence has been there for some time. Mr Ramsay says ‘ten years ago, we were depending on their pens. Ten years ago, we were depending on their insults. Ten years ago, we were depending on their egos.’ He adds ‘they destroyed restaurants over 25 years….’

Night time economy: NTIA CEO Michael Kill says that the number of late night venues fell by 4.1%. The NTIA’s latest Night Time Economy Market Monitor suggests that the late-night economy has shrunk by 28.2% since the first Covid lockdown in March 2020….

Disposable incomes: Rightmove reports that the average monthly mortgage repayment in the UK is now down £119 year-on-year in January…

COMPANY NEWS:

Heavitree Brewery has reported results for the year to end-October 2025 saying that revenue came in at £7.6m, up 1.7% on the prior year. The group reports operating profit of £1.377m (2024: £1.424m) and PBT, after a profit of £1.1m on the sale of fixed assets, of £3.018m (FY24: £1.560m). The group reports EPS of 54.2p (FY24: 27.2p)…

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Texas Roadhouse in the US has reported Q4 numbers saying that revenue rose by 3.1% in the quarter to $1.48bn….

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The world’s largest McDonald’s restaurant, a 2,000sqm site, is set to open at Disneyland Paris. The unit will employ 210 staff and seat 600 customers.

The Times reports that Ranjit Singh Boparan, the owner of one of Britain’s biggest family businesses with assets including 2 Sisters Food Group, Bernard Matthews, Giraffe restaurants, Ed’s Easy Diner and Gourmet Burger Kitchen, has expanded further into Europe months after criticising government policies for driving investors abroad.

Pernod Ricard has reported H1 numbers revealing that sales fell by more than had been expected in the period, driven by sharp falls in its two biggest markets, the United States and China….

The MCA reports Boxpark CEO Matt Snell as saying that, with a stagnant home economy, he is focussing on the turnaround of Boxpark’s core business, as well as lucrative event pop-ups and international opportunities. The business has walked away from sites in Bristol and Birmingham.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

CoStar suggests that the World Cup in June and July will provide a modest but meaningful uplift to the US hotel industry over the period in question….

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Airline companies are complaining after Spanish airports operator AENA called for an increase in landing charges.

OTHER LEISURE:

The Telegraph reports that the ‘craze’ for cryptocurrency betting and betting on politics and events has reduced income by nearly £19bn at some of the world’s largest gambling companies.

Pure Padel has secured approval to build a ten-strong indoor court base in Newcastle….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI reports that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to February, though at a slower pace than in January…

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Sterling lower at $1/3444 and €1.1440. Oil up at $72.22. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.38%. World markets mostly lower yesterday but London set to open around 48 points to the good as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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