JDW, PFD, Fulham Shore, interest rates, inflation, travel plans & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

You know those withering put downs, the ones you always wish you’d been smart enough to say a few minutes after an altercation has actually ended?

Well, they don’t work with dogs.

Because I told ours that her breath smelled of sewage.

And that would be her on a good day but, rather than slink away in disgrace and gift me a small victory, she didn’t seem to be in the slightest bit hurt by the comment.

Indeed, water-off-a-duck’s-back had nothing on the nonchalance that she displayed and she stuck to the time-honoured dog adage that the worse you stink, the closer you should be to a human.

Anyway, we’re nearly at the end of another five day week. The weather looks good, the beer gardens, dare we say it, might attract some trade so it only remains to wish readers a pleasant weekend and move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Interest rates & inflation:

As had been widely expected, the Bank of England’s MPC yesterday held interest rates at 3.75%. The voting was unanimous. However, as bond yields rose sharply during the day yesterday and no stand at near 20-year highs, a rise at the MPC’s next meeting cannot be ruled out…

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Impact on discretionary spending.

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Impact on corporations:

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Comments.

The CBI has commented on the held 3.75% bank rate saying that ‘only a few weeks ago, a rate cut in March looked like a done deal. But the outlook facing the Bank of England has shifted materially since then….’

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Employment & labour costs:

The ONS yesterday reported that ‘the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 5.2% in November 2025 to January 2026. This is up in the latest quarter and above estimates of a year ago.’ It added that ‘the estimated number of vacancies in the UK has remained broadly flat across recent periods’ and, as regards labour costs, it said ‘annual growth in employees” average earnings in Great Britain was 3.8% for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) and 3.9% for total earnings (including bonuses) in November 2025 to January 2026….’

Elsewhere within the labour market, Helen Dickinson, CEO of the BRC has reported that ‘people everywhere are struggling to find jobs, youth employment is falling faster still, and the UK faces the prospect of a jobless generation….’

Banking giant HSBC is reported to be considering cutting as many as 20,000 jobs globally over the next three to five years as it incorporates AI into its business…

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Other news:

Insolvencies for companies in the accommodation and food services sector were up by 9% month-on-month in to 223 in January 2026 compared with a month earlier.

JD WETHERSPOON – H1 RESULTS:

JDW reports revenue of £1.088bn vs £1.030bn in the prior year. LFL sale in H1 are up 4.8%. The group reports PBT of £22.4m against £32.9m in FY25. It adds that operating profit is down a lesser 18% at £52.9m and basic EPS is down 28% at 15.5p. The group is proposing an unchanged H1 dividend of 4.0p.

JDW updates, saying that in ‘the last seven weeks, to 15 March 2026, like-for-like sales increased by 2.6%.’ Sir Tim Martin says ‘cost increases will undoubtedly add to underlying inflation in the UK economy, although Wetherspoon, as always, will endeavour to keep price increases to a minimum.’ He concludes ‘there is clearly considerable pressure on consumer finances, combined with higher taxes, wages and energy costs for the hospitality industry.’ The chairman says ‘this may result in profits that are slightly below current market expectations. The forecast for year-end net debt remains unchanged.’

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COMPANY NEWS:

Sky News reports that the Real Greek owner, Fulham Shore, is weighing restructuring options for casual dining chain…

Pret a Manger is reported set to open its first drive-thru site this spring. The move is said to be part of a drive to introduce different formats to its customers.

SIBA reports that Scotland’s Fyne Ales has been named Brewery Business of the Year at the SIBA Business Awards 2026

Yard Sale Pizza is to open its 17th London location on Salusbury Road in Queen’s Park next month.

The Roseacre Pub Company, which is registered in Sheffield and which is the main operating company of Sage Pubs, has reported numbers for the year to 31 March 2025 to Companies House saying that revenue rose by 13.6% to £14.3m. The group reports that its GP% rose fractionally to 62.3% (FY24: 62.2%). Admin costs rose by 15.2% but the company nonetheless reported operating profit (and PBT as there is nominal interest charged or received) up nearly 31% at £1.67m (FY24: £1.28m)….

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Premier Foods, the London-listed owner of Mr Kipling cakes and Bisto stock cubes, is considering a £200m swoop on Crosta Mollica, the European premium pizza brand, reports Sky News…

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Trade Gazette reports that Turkey has moved to reassure the trade that tourism is “proceeding as normal” despite the crisis in the Middle East. Representatives are urging agents to continue promoting the destination as “reliable and high-value” as peak summer approaches.

Further East, the FT reports that Dubai tourism is ‘reeling’ in the face of incoming Iranian missiles. It says that hotels in the UAE are placing staff on unpaid leave and shuttering buildings as occupancy levels plummet….

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CoStar reports that the US hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons in the week to 14 March. It says occupancy was up 2.3%, ADR rose by 3.2% and the resultant REVPAR was up by 5.6%.

Shares in French hotel giant Accor fell sharply yesterday, partly due to weaker financial markets overall but also as a result of a report published by a short-seller in the US suggesting that the company took bookings from ‘highly problematic’ sources…

The New York Times reports that demand for flight tickets has held up relatively well in the US despite higher ticket prices. Airline executives from American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines told an investor conference that they had each had to pay $400 million extra in fuel costs since the conflict in the Middle East began.

Uber has reported that it is to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, subject to the achievement of autonomous performance milestones, in order to ‘purchase 10,000 fully autonomous R2 robotaxis with the option to purchase up to 40,000 more in 2030.’

OTHER LEISURE:

The Times reports that revenues at the gambling group running the UK’s National Lottery rose last year, boosted by growth in online gaming….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling up at $1.3398 and €1.1602. Oil lower at $107.08. UK 10 year gilt yield up 9 basis points from this time yesterday at 4.85%. World markets lower yesterday but London suggesting some stability & forecast to open up around 10 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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