Incomes, food prices, hotels, BrewDog, JDW, AG Barr, PPHE & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I know Archimedes correctly held that the volume of a liquid displaced would be equal to the volume of a body falling into that liquid, but tell that to your trousers if you spill maybe a centimetre from the top of your coffee on your chair and then sit in it.

Because, while the coffee lost may well be minimal, the result thereof usually isn’t.

Anyway, enough of that.

Well done Hull City (3-1) and York City (3-0), both of whom look quite likely to be in promotion contention come the end of next month. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Disposable incomes:

Energy. Domestic energy will drop modestly next week but best estimates are that the typical annual bill could go up by £332 in July, to reflect developments in the global gas market as a result of the attacks on Iran…

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Food.

The NFU has warned that food prices in the UK are likely to rise as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. NFU president Tom Bradshaw told the BBC that the price of cucumbers and tomatoes could rise over the next six weeks – due to higher energy costs, with the cost of other crops and milk increasing in the next three to six months….

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Other news:

Weight loss drugs. The MCA reports that weight loss drugs are ‘already beginning to impact the way people consume food – and the effects are being felt across the eating out sector.’

SIBA announces that its overall Champion of the Cask in the 2026 “Indie Beer Awards” was Almasty Brewery in Newcastle with their 6% ‘Believe’ New England style IPA. It adds that Lakes Brew Co in Kendall won Overall Champion in Keg with their decadent 8.4% “Don’t Make Me Run” Imperial Stout, and Baker’s Dozen in Stamford won Overall Champion in the bottle / can competition with their bright and refreshing 3.2% “Agua Fresca Sour”.

City AM reports JDW chair Sir Tim Martin as saying that pubs will be swiftly overtaken by supermarkets if they opt to cut their serving standards. His comments come on the back of energy secretary Ed Miliband’s comments that pubs should consider not chilling their beers in order to save energy.

Westons Cider Report 2026 suggests that the on-trade cider market has grown 3.1% to £2.04bn, driven by premiumisation and rising price per pint.

COMPANY NEWS:

BrewDog is reported to have taken a further five former sites that it used to operate back into the company, taking the estate up to 16 pubs….

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The Telegraph reports that BrewDog co-founder ‘James Watt has blamed BrewDog’s new American owners for leaving thousands of early investors out of pocket.’ He says that he ‘was “disappointed” by Tilray Brands’ decision to wipe out BrewDog’s so-called “equity punks” in the wake of a rescue deal….’

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JD Wetherspoon shares slipped by 10.6% on Friday on the back of the company’s H1 results and the company’s comment that numbers for the full year looked as though they were going to ‘slightly’ undershoot current estimates….

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AG Barr reports that it has launched its ‘rebranded and refreshed IRN-BRU ‘ZERO’ product.’ It says that ‘the launch is being supported by expanded distribution and availability across the UK, and UK-wide advertising and social media campaigns….

Glasgow-based restaurant operator HMS, which operated the Lucali restaurant in Giffnock and Andiamo in Milngavie, has been sold out of administration by RSM…

Just Eat Takeaway has reported that, having started with just seven cuisines in the UK 20 years ago – Italian and pizza, Indian, burgers, Chinese, kebabs, fish and chips, and chicken – the company now offers over 100 options on its platform….

Hospitality group RedCat, which is backed by Oaktree Capital Management, is reported to be working with Rothschild & Co. to gauge interest from potential investors to fund expansion.

Autumn Topco, the Downing-backed pub group, comprising Pub People and Mountain Pub Company, has reported ‘strong sales and EBITDA growth for its financial year ending 30th September 2025….’

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In what it says is the most high-profile national cask ale launch this century, artisan premium cask ale LionHeart is ‘bringing together the expertise and experience of brand owner Brookfield Drinks and award-winning Norfolk brewer Woodforde’s’ to offer a 4% ABV Artisan Premium ale to the market.

Majestic Wine. Sky News reports that the ‘owner of Majestic Wine is drawing up plans to offload the retailer nearly seven years after its operations were bought out of its London-listed parent company….’

Flat Iron is set to open its first site in Scotland, to be located on Glasgow’s West George Street, next year.

JD WETHERSPOON – H1 ANALYSTS’ WEBCAST:

Following the release of its H1 numbers, JD Wetherspoon hosted a webcast for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below:

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Commenting on the UK hotel industry, accountant RSM UK reports that ‘occupancy and room rates of UK hotels rose in January, but there’s uncertainty ahead for the industry amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.’ It says that ‘occupancy of UK hotels rose from 62.8% to 63.5% in January year-on-year, but was flat in London at 66.7%….’

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HVS reports that the ‘European hotel investment market saw another year of strong performance in 2025 with total transaction volume reaching €22.6bn, a rise of 30% on the previous year…’

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PPHE Hotel Group reports that it has entered into an agreement with Bank Hapoalim B.M. to fund the acquisition of the freehold interest in Park Plaza London Waterloo. The news was flagged earlier this month.

Z Hotels is reported to have secured a £79m loan from Metro Bank to refinance two prime London freehold hotels in Leicester Square and Covent Garden.

Vista Parcs Group on Friday confirmed its offer to retail investors as part of its AIM IPO on 31 March 2026. It says ‘on admission to AIM, the company will acquire a portfolio of 13 UK-based holiday and residential parks, located in or close to Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, the coast and established market towns….’

The Times comments on the impact of the Gulf conflict on the Dubai hotel market saying that IHG is offering rooms for as little as £39 in Dubai and £36 in Abu Dhabi.

Hilton has announced an exclusive agreement with YOTEL. It says that ‘YOTEL has pioneered ways to meet changing guest needs through stays that feature smart room design, and clever tech-enabled features.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Sky News reports that Premier League clubs have been urged to reach a landmark financial agreement with their lower league counterparts within months, amid concerns that a more draconian deal will be imposed on them by the sport’s new regulator.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

UK bond yields have risen to their highest level in almost 20 years. Ten year gilt bond yields, which moved over 5.00% on Friday, were last at that level in 2008.

US bank JP Morgan is now predicting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its next meeting in late April, with at least one further rise coming later in the year.

The CBI reports that, though ‘manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to March, at a faster pace than in February,’ they are shortly expected to stabilise…

Oxford Economics has cut its estimate for UK GDP growth in half as a result of the war in the Gulf. It says the UK could grow by as little as 0.4% this year, compared to its earlier estimate of around 0.9%.

Sterling lower at $1.3300 and €1.1535. Oil price up another $6 or so on US threats to attack energy infrastructure over the weekend at $113.41. UK 10 year gilt yield up 14 basis points over the weekend to remain near 20-yr highs of 4.99%.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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