Food prices, Punch Pubs, McDonald franchisees, Roadchef & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I know that GPs have something of a reputation when it comes to bad handwriting, but I do have a degree of sympathy with them, at least when it comes to that particular failing.

Because, not that I hand-write an awful lot of stuff these days, typing seems to be my thing but, when I’m writing out a word longhand, I do find it easy to lose interest after the first syllable on the basis that life’s too short and I’ll probably get the gist of it if I ever have to read it back.

And if someone else tries to read what I’ve written then hopefully they’ll think I’m enigmatic rather than simply an idiot as the second, third and fourth syllables might end up as a series of up and down lines – the number of which bears little reference to the word in question – and final suffixes such as -ness, -ship and all the variants on -ion have got absolutely no chance at all.

They’ll get a squiggle if they’re lucky and be happy with it.

Anyway, the four-day weekend is almost upon us. Big one for the football, good luck to all concerned, have a good one and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Food prices:

The Food and Drink Federation has said that food cost inflation will rise from its current 3.3% to between 9% and 10% by the end of this year. It cites ‘unprecedented’ energy and supply chain shocks, both caused by the Iranian response to attacks on the country by the USA and Israel….

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Other news:

Champagne. Drinks Business reports t at a number of producers are suggesting that the UK market looks to have grown in 2025.

Advice to tenants. The Pubs Code Adjudicator has emphasised the valuable role that ‘independent professional advice plays in helping tied pub tenants, and those negotiating a new tied agreement, make informed business decisions and understand their rights under the Pubs Code.’

COMPANY NEWS:

Punch Pubs & Co has announced that it has completed the acquisition of eight pubs from RedCat Hospitality. It says that the ‘transaction supports Punch’s continued investment in high quality community pubs as part of its vision to be recognised as the UK’s 5 Star pub company…’

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US coffee shop operator Blank Street is reported by the FT to be in early-stage discussions to raise funding, possibly to the value of over $100m, in order to support expansion plans.

New BrewDog owner Tilray Brands has reported Q3 numbers (to end-Feb as it is a May year-end company) saying that net revenue rose to $207m. The company had not, at this stage, purchased parts of the BrewDog estate…

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The MCA reports that Big Table-owned brand Las Iguanas is ‘consulting with landlords over a restructure of the Latin American concept’s leasehold business’. It suggests that ‘wet-led casual dining continues to be a ‘very challenged’ part of the market.’

The Big Chill Group. Three-storey King’s Cross-based music bar The Big Chill has reported numbers for the period c16 month period from 27 November 2023 to 30 March 2025 to Companies’ House saying that revenue – and we are comparing a 16 month period with a 12 month period – rose by 24% to £14.3m. The most recent period will have included two Christmases….

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Fortress Operations. Midlands-based McDonald’s franchisee Fortress Operations has reported results for the year to end-March 2025 saying that revenue slipped slightly (down 2.6%) to £138.3m. The group reports that its GP% fell to 42.1% from 43.0% in FY24. Admin expenses were well-controlled (up just 1.1%) but the group slipped to an operating loss of £914k vs an operating profit of £3.85m in the prior year….

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AI platform Sona, which services the hospitality sector, is reported to have secured a further $45 million in Series B funding to finance expansion.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. has announced that it has now acquired 96.22% of the Shares of JDE Peet’s in its offer for the company. It says ‘with this acquisition, KDP is bringing together world‑class brands, deep category expertise, and complementary capabilities in coffee across JDE Peet’s and KDP’s Keurig business….’

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Trade Gazette suggests that operators in Cyprus are pointing to a c40% reduction in demand and concerns that the market might not bounce back as rapidly as it has fallen away.

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has suggested that jet fuel supplies could start to become problematic as soon as early May if the Middle East conflict is not resolved soon….

Roadchef reports that it has ‘secured 75-year lease extensions on five motorway services area sites including Clacket Lane and Watford Gap.’ It says that the ‘long-term certainty provided by the lease extensions will unlock significant investment for Roadchef by shareholder Macquarie Asset Management, over the next five years…’

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OTHER LEISURE:

Chelsea FC has announced a loss of £262.4m before tax for the year to end-June 2025, a record for the Premier League. Revenue was £490.9m but higher operating costs drove the company into the record loss.

Nike shares have fallen by around 15% on the release of the company’s Q3 numbers. Nike reported that sales could be down by low-single-digits over the rest of this calendar year. They could be down by between 2% and 4% in the current quarter, worse than the 1.9% growth analysts had been looking for…

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England has warned that the UK and global financial markets are facing a number of ‘large, frequent and potentially overlapping shocks’. And PM Sir Keir Starmer has cautioned that the fallout from the attacks on Iran will have an impact on the UK economy and on consumers.

PM Sir Keir Starmer has said that the uncertainty surrounding the state of the UK and Europe’s relationship with the US means that closer ties with the EU are now required. President Trump has recently suggested the US could leave Nato, that he may take Greenland from Denmark by force and that his allies are worthless paper tigers.

S&P has updated on the UK’s manufacturing sector saying that ‘manufacturing production fell back into contraction at the end of the opening quarter, as rising uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions, the war in the Middle East and direction of domestic economic policy led to a scaling back of output volumes.’ It says that its PMI for March came in at 51.0, down from 51.7 in February and below the flash estimate of 51.4.

US president Donald Trump addressed the nation yesterday but, as he seemed to promise more of the same in the war with Iran, oil prices rose and shares fell on the news.

Sterling mixed at $1.3229 and €1.1476. Oil up at $106.97. UK 10 year gilt yield down around 8 basis points at 4.85%. World markets heading lower after President Trump’s address last night and London set to open around 98 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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