Interest rates, confidence, whisky tariffs, triple lock, Molson Coors & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

They say that, as you get older, the hours drag but the months fly but, whilst that may be true for some out there who are getting longer in the tooth than they used to be, I want to know what it suggest about you if the minutes, hours, days, weeks and months all fly and hence, at the end of any particular time period, you’re hard pressed to say what you’ve achieved.

I say this because it’s the First of May today and the year’s a third gone.

Now, for the 12 year olds out there it probably seems like an eternity ago that we were taking down the Christmas decorations but I can say with some authority that it wasn’t and that, it you look a bit more closely than is polite, you’ll see that some of them were never taken down at all.

Anyway, it’s the end of the week, the three-day weekend beckons, the sun’s shining and all Hull City have to do, and this despite having a recent record more worthy of a team battling demotion rather than one pitching for the playoffs, is beat Norwich and hope that Wrexham fail to find the net vs The Boro.

Have a good weekend and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Interest rates:

The Bank of England’s MPC yesterday voted by a majority of 8–1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. it says that one member voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. The Bank adds that the conflict in the Middle East means that, though monetary policy can do nothing to change the cost of energy, interest rates ‘will be set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them [energy price rises] occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably….’

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Business confidence:

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales has produced its Business Confidence Monitor for Q1 saying that ‘business sentiment was on course to move into positive territory in Q1 2026, but the outbreak of the Iran war had a dramatic impact in the final weeks of the survey period, with confidence deteriorating sharply….’

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Other news:

Whisky tariffs: US president Donald Trump has said he will remove whisky importation tariffs into the US following the visit of King Charles and Queen Camilla. The president said the Royal visit ‘got me to do something that nobody else was able to do, without hardly even asking.’ Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney said this was ‘tremendous news for Scotland.’

Minimum wage: CBI chair Cressida Hogg has said that the UK minimum wage is freezing young people out of work. She tells the Telegraph that increasing rates across the board have already priced some youngsters out of work, although Ms Hogg said worse could be to come if the Government forges ahead with plans to ensure that all workers aged 18 and over get the same rate of pay….

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Demographics: Grey market. The Triple Lock has helped maintain incomes at this end of the market. But this has been at a great cost to other segments of society, particularly workers and younger people and the Tony Blair Institute has said that it should be dropped. It says that the system is ‘outdated, increasingly unaffordable, and too rigid for the way people live and work’.

Food prices & supply: The BBC reports operators as suggesting that the interruption to supplies of fertiliser and its key ingredients due to the war in Iran could cost up to ten billion meals a week and will hit poorest countries hardest.

A Which report suggests that as many as three million UK households are now being forced to skip meals in order to deal with rising costs. Which adds that some 71% of UK adults surveyed believe the UK economy will deteriorate in the next 12 months, with only 9% saying that it will get better….

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COMPANY NEWS:

Molson Coors Beverage Company yesterday reported Q1 numbers saying that net sales increased 2.0% on a reported basis and by 0.1% in constant currency terms. It adds that U.S. GAAP income before income taxes increased 24.6% to $194.7 million….

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Pizza Union has reported full year numbers to Companies’ House for the year to end-December 2025 saying that revenue slipped by 12.9% to £6.649m, largely due to the disposal of one of the six sites that the company started the year with. The group reports an operating profit of £415k, down by 40% on the prior year. There is interest received so the PBT is a slightly larger £446k (FY24: £710k). Pizza Union paid a dividend of £300k in the year. Retained profits are £2.2m and shareholders’ funds are a positive £3.7m…

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Whitbread yesterday confirmed rumours circulating earlier in the week that it would move to sell and lease-back some £1.5bn of its currently-freehold assets. The company says its refocused growth plans in the UK and Germany will ‘drive increased margins and returns. Capex will drop by £1bn in addition to the sale-and-leaseback mentioned above….

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Whitbread is likely to cut around 3,800 jobs in the UK and Ireland as it further shakes up its F&B offer…

ACI Europe has called for national aviation taxes across Europe to be suspended in order to help the aviation industry, and particularly its more regional airports, from the worst of the impact of the Iran war.

Royal Caribbean Group has reported Q1 numbers saying that adjusted EPS for the quarter came in at $3.60. It says its ‘results were better than the company’s guidance due to more favourable revenue, lower costs, and better performance from joint ventures….

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CoStar reports that the US hotel industry reported positive metrics in the week to 25 April. It says that occupancy rose by 4.0% to 67.7% whilst ADR rose by 4.3%. The resultant REVPAR was up by 8.5%.

OTHER LEISURE:

Apple yesterday reported Q1 numbers saying that it had generated $111.2bn in revenue in the quarter.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England yesterday held UK rates at 3.75%. See Pubs & Restaurants above.

The ECB also held its key interest rates unchanged at its meeting yesterday. The deposit facility rate was held at 2% for the third consecutive meeting.

Sterling up at $1.3595 and €1.1597. Oil a shade lower at $111.02. UK 10 year gilt yield down 5 basis points at 5.02%. World markets mostly better yesterday & London set to open up around 3 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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