Langton Capital – 2026-05-05 – PREMIUM – Jobs market, World Cup, trading, Real Greek, Remy, flight prices & other:
Jobs market, World Cup, trading, Real Greek, Remy, flight prices & other:PREMIUM EMAIL – PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD: A DAY IN THE LIFE: Well, quite a weekend. Hull City, which may live to regret it, made the Championship playoffs by the skin of their teeth, the weather broke decisively and the mower’s coming back from the menders just in time to float around in the garden on the puddles that have appeared since it sloped off to have its blades put back on. And blades, though I don’t know much about lawn mowers, are pretty critical when it comes to doing the job the machine’s meant to do. But all of that is what it is. We’ve a short week this week so, without wasting any more of it than feels necessary, let’s move on to the news: PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Employment market: The Institute of Directors’ economic confidence Index has ‘improved’ but it remains well into negative territory as it edged up to minus 64 in April from minus 76 in March. City AM reports that this may mean a hiring freeze is on the cards as headcount expectations dropped into negative territory again… • The IoD reports that headcount expectations slipped to minus three from zero in the previous month. Economist Anna Leach suggests that the ‘improvement’ may signal a pickup in investment in AI and renewables but says that job prospects have slightly worsened. World Cup: The FT reports on the upcoming World Cup and says that UK pubs and bars may be relying on it ‘for respite from sluggish sales and rising costs.’ It says that some operators are racing ‘to upgrade their television screens and it quotes GNK CEO Nick Mackenzie as saying that it has seen an influx of early bookings for the tournament… • The BBPA’s Emma McClarkin says that the tournament should offer ‘a great boost’ to the UIK’s pubs & bars. Elsewhere, it cites optimism at Admiral Taverns, which is expecting to sell about 10 per cent more beer than usual over the World Cup and at Heineken UK-owned Star Pubs. • On a more downbeat note, accountant RSM UK’s Saxon Moseley says ‘people have a certain amount of discretionary income — and we expect that to go down because of the war.’ He says ‘if you choose to go to the pub to watch the World Cup, that comes out of other activities, like going to a restaurant.’ Trading: Meaningful Vision maintains that increasing spend per head, whilst welcome in the short term, is finite in terms of scale. CEO Maria Vanifatova says ‘looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 remains challenging….’ • Ms Vanifatova says ‘further price increases are likely as cost pressures continue to build, but demand growth is expected to remain subdued. Traffic per-store may continue to decline as outlet numbers remain elevated and competition intensifies across key segments and dayparts.’ Other news: The CMA has concluded that petrol retailers have not been profiteering as a result of the war in the Gulf. They had been accused of ‘price gouging’ but the CMA has found that higher fuel prices have been caused by the rising cost of oil, rather than by margin expansion. COMPANY NEWS: The BBC reports that The Real Greek restaurant chain has been rescued from the brink of collapse after the owners of Cote Brasserie stepped in to buy 19 of its 28 outlets. It had looked likely that administrators would be appointed but Karali Group, which late last year bought the 70-strong Cote Brasserie chain, has made an offer for most of the smaller operator’s sites. • Fulham Shore CEO Marcel Khan says ‘sustained pressures facing the hospitality sector, including elevated cost inflation and a fiscal environment that continues to place UK operators at a disadvantage relative to international peers, present significant challenges even for businesses that are delivering progress.’ • Owner Toridoll says ‘in recent years, high levels of inflation in the UK, driven by rising energy and food prices together with increase in labour costs resulting from rises in the minimum wage, have created a more challenging operating environment for the hospitality industry than initially anticipated.’ Star Pubs, which is owned by Heineken, is to invest some £44m in upgrading its estate in the UK, reports The Independent. Groucho Club chairman Lord Davies, former trade minister, is to step down from his role reports Sky News. Pizza Express is to offer customers a QSR format, reports Restaurant Online. The group has opened a site in Brixton which is smaller than its usual offering and which has a menu of ‘fan favourites’ including dough balls and pizza options. Tenants: Greene King CEO Nick Mackenzie has said that there is no shortage of people willing to take on the challenge of running a pub. He says that 98% of its tenanted & leased pubs have an operator in place. He says ‘the number of people who are now applying to come and operate pubs is higher than it’s ever been.’ Rémy Cointreau has reported a pick up in sales growth in its fourth quarter, the period to end-March. Remy says that organic growth was 8.9% in the three months to March 2026. Full year revenue, however, came in below expectations at some €935.3m…. • The group reports that cognac revenue fell 6.2% on a reported basis but fell by only 0.5% organically. Liqueurs and Spirits revenue fell 1.8% on a reported basis but rose by 2.8% organically. Re the outlook, the company has confirmed its expectation for a low double-digit to mid-teens percentage decline in full-year current operating profit. It says that negative currency movements will cost it between €25m and €30m in reported operating profit. DEMOGRAPHICS – OLDER CUSTOMERS: The ONS has projected forward the UK population from 2025 to 2050 and concluded that it will grow and age. It stresses that its projections are largely based on past and current trends and cannot predict future changes in international migration, births or deaths. Re the growth in population, the ONS estimates that the UK population will grow from 69.5m in June 2025 to around 72.5m in June 2050…. • The UK’s population grew by a materially larger 10.6m over the first 25 years of the current century. The projected growth amounts to only 0.2% per year over the next 25 years. Net inward migration is thought likely to add 5.7m people. The ONS projects that the UK population will peak at just over 72.5m in 2054 before declining to 71.3m in 2075 and 68.0m in 2100. • Ageing population: The number of people in the UK aged 65 or older is projected to increase by 34% from 13.4m in 2025 to 18.0m in 2050. This compares to just over 1% projected increase in the working population and contrasts with a projected 16% fall in the number of children from 14.1m to 11.9m. The number of people aged 75 or older is projected to increase by 52% from 6.7m in 2025 to 10.2m in 2050. • Implications: Putting politics to one side, the proportion of the population not working will increase and, other things being equal, the tax burden on workers may rise. And, though the total population, and particularly the size of the grey market, is set to grow, the over-75s may, at some point, consume less in the way of hospitality and retail products and focus spending on health care. • Whilst older people may take more out of the economy in benefits than they pay in in taxes, the ICAEW points out that ‘fewer children and young adults should reduce the cost of the education budget.’ It says, however, that ‘this will be offset by a defence budget going in the opposite direction’ and, of course, healthcare spending may need to rise. • Overall: Clearly in a problem-spotting rather than a problem-solving mood, the ICAEW reports that ‘the challenge for this and future governments is how to find the money that will be needed to pay the pensions, health, social care and other costs that result from that otherwise very welcome trend’ – i.e. people living longer. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Flight prices: The BBC reports that ‘many airlines have already pushed up ticket prices as the cost of flying has increased, and some have trimmed their capacity. Unless extra supplies can be found, a lack of fuel could lead to further disruption and cancellations heading into the peak summer holiday period….’ • The BBC claims that ‘the crisis has exposed just how vulnerable the industry in the UK – Europe’s biggest consumer of jet fuel – is to disruption in the Middle East.’ It adds that, in addition to supply problems, ‘in late February, before the first US and Israeli airstrikes, jet fuel was trading at $831 per tonne in Europe. By early April, it had touched $1838 – an increase of more than 120%. It has since retreated but has consistently remained above $1500.’ • As is often the case, there are here a number of possible interpretations. To the extent that consumers have to save harder to afford their overseas holidays, this could depress domestic hospitality & leisure spend. But, to the extent that higher overseas prices keep some consumers in the UK, there could be something of a tailwind. UKH has polled consumers on their attitudes to the Government’s proposed holiday tax and, in common with the view on many if not most taxes, it is negative… • The poll of ‘over 10,000 Britons finds that more than twice as many people oppose the Government’s proposed holiday tax (56%) as those who support it (24%).’ It says that the ‘poll finds that voters are nearly 10 times more likely to punish an MP who backs the holiday tax than back them at the ballot box, threatening the Government’s majority in 200 seats.’ • UKH CEO Allen Simpson says the ‘polling should be a wake-up call for every MP tempted to back the holiday tax. It is opposed by a majority of their constituents, it would deter millions from holidaying in England, and it would hit hardest the very families the Government says it wants to help.’ Union Unite has called on Whitbread to enter formal consultations over its proposed 3,800 job cuts, reports the MA… • It says that the ‘calls come following the group’s announcement [last week] that it plans to exit its branded restaurant estate. The union ‘said it would seek urgent discussions and provide support to affected members, after claiming staff first learned of the redundancies through media reports.’ General secretary Sharon Graham says ‘instead of counterproductive and cruel redundancies to boost coffers, Whitbread should concentrate on treating its workers and its customers decently to build sustainable profits.’ The BBC comments that the higher price of petrol and diesel seems to have led some consumers to cut back on day-trips and domestic visits. It quotes John Turner, CEO of Visit Somerset, as saying that he worried ‘we will see B&Bs, even hotels, collapse into administration.’ TTG reports adventure specialist Intrepid holidays as becoming the latest company to say that there will be no surcharges on existing or new bookings across its core range of small group adventures this year. Hyatt Hotels has reported Q1 numbers saying that its comparable system-wide hotels RevPAR rose by 5.4% compared to the first quarter of 2025. OTHER LEISURE: Retail chain GameStop is reported to have made a $55.5bn offer to buy eBay. Shares in eBay rose by around 7.5% on the news and GameStop stock was down about 5%. FINANCE & MARKETS: S&P on Friday issued its PMI for the UK manufacturing sector, saying that it ‘rose to a 47-month high of 53.7 in April, its best level since May 2022 and little-changed from the earlier flash estimate of 53.6….’ • S&P director Rob Dobson said ‘April saw the growth rate of the UK manufacturing sector recover after being hit by the impacts of the war in the Middle East during March. The headline PMI rose to a near four-year high, as the trends in output and new orders strengthened. Staffing levels were also increased for the first time in 18 months.’ • He adds that ‘the upturn comes with several of catches, however. Restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz are causing substantial disruptions to input deliveries, with supplier lead times lengthening to the greatest extent in almost four years.’ Mr Dobson says ‘the resulting material shortages are exerting steep pressure on purchasing costs. Input prices rose at one of the fastest rates in the 34-year survey history, and at a pace rarely exceeded outside of the pandemic-related inflationary surge of 2021-22.’ Nationwide on Friday reported that house prices unexpectedly rose in April. It says the market has been showing ‘remarkable resilience’ in the face of the hit to consumer confidence caused by the Iran war. US President Donald Trump has said he will raise the tariffs charged on cars and trucks from the EU to 25%. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:
• Saturday’s Press and News (1): Many of the front-page News headlines of Saturday’s papers focused on UK politics, with the Guardian reporting the ‘exclusive’ news that the Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, has “a credible plan” to return to Westminster “in weeks”, whilst the Daily Telegraph flagged that the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, is “primed to challenge” the Prime Minister, ‘within days’ and the i Weekend paper highlighted that “Reform and Greens on course to tear up UK political map in next week’s vote”. In other news, the Times quoted the head of the Met Police, Mark Rowley, as saying “British Jews face greatest ever threat”, whilst the Daily Mail reported that pressure is growing on Green Party leader Zack Polanski ‘to purge anti-Semites’ from his party (as backing for the paper’s anti-Green campaign: “Beware the Green menace”). Elsewhere, UK fishing boats may be forced • Saturday Press and News (2): In terms of Retail news in Saturday’s papers, the Guardian followed up its website ‘exclusive’ on Friday that the failed jewellery and accessories chain Claire’s is expected to return to UK high streets, with about 50 stores to be reopened from June onwards by its European operator, the French entrepreneur Julien Jarjoura. The Times also picked up on the Guardian story, with “French rescue for fifty Claire’s stores”. The FT highlighted the Tesco unequal pay legal case (“Tesco sets out case for differing pay at tribunal”), noting that ‘Tesco has alleged that paying its store assistants the same as workers in its warehouses would “disregard economic reality”’. The FT also picked up on the strong Apple results (“Outgoing boss Cook credits ‘most popular’ iPhone for 17% sales spurt”).
• Sunday Press and News (1): The front-page photos of the Sunday papers were dominated by fawning pictures of the 11-year-old Princess Charlotte, although there were also some photos of the new contestants (eg Jerry Hall) in the ‘Celebrity Traitors’ TV show. In terms of the News headlines, the Sunday Telegraph reported that previously loyal supporters of Keir Starmer on Labour’s ruling body, the NEC, are no longer prepared to block Andy Burnham from returning to Parliament. The Sunday Times led with its disclosure that Prince William pays up to £7m a year in income tax, but it also highlighted on its front page the latest cynical tactics to prop up the embattled PM: “Bond chaos fears if Reeves ousted with PM”. Ahead of Thursday’s local elections, that bond market story was also the headline of the main Business article in the Mail on Sunday (“Bond vigilantes circling as Labour faces
• Sunday Press (2): In terms of Retailing stories in the Business sections of the Sunday papers, the front page of the Sunday Times highlighted the job creation plans of the rescuer of the Claire’s chain (“Claire’s saviour set to re-hire up to 600 staff”) and also flagged the plans of Amazon to ask UK grocery suppliers for more support, given its investment in the logistics for same-day delivery of fresh food (“Amazon’s fresh push into grocery”). The Sunday Times also had articles about the looming shortage of fertilisers caused by the war in the Middle East (“Never mind oil. Food is the war’s bigger crisis”) and the success of ‘everyday’ fashion brands like Gap in attracting designers like Victoria Beckham (“The Devil wears Zara…and Gap”). And the Mail on Sunday highlighted that buying shares in luxury goods companies like Hermes and Richemont 20 years ago, when the original ‘The • Sunday Press (3): In terms of the Economics etc comment columns in the Sunday papers, we give our usual shout-out to the regular column by David Smith, the Sunday Times Economics correspondent (headlined “Is the bell tolling for Bank of England independence?”), in which he noted that “Another period of elevated inflation will pose questions about its purpose”. In the interests of balance, we should also highlight the adjacent Business column by the former PM Rishi Sunak in the Sunday Times (headlined “If we help Ukraine now, it could replicate the Polish miracle”). We also liked the column by the Politics correspondent Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer (headlined “Brutal poll predictions have Labour braced for what fatalists are calling ‘Starmerggedon”).
• Monday’s Press (1): In terms of the front-page News headlines of the Bank Holiday papers, according to the email summary from the Guardian, the Guardian itself leads with “Alarm over ‘toothless’ oversight of AI facial recognition systems”. The Times has “Britain told to pay £1bn a year to EU after ‘reset’”, while “State pension triple lock under threat if UK goes to war with Putin” is the main story in the i paper and the Financial Times tells us that “Banks in danger of ‘choking’ on data centre financing seek to offload risk”. The Daily Mirror runs with “Reform in new race row” and there is a local elections frightener in the Daily Mail (“Labour’s plan to double parking fine fee”), whilst the Telegraph reports that “Welfare pays more than work for 600k households”. The Telegraph’s front-page photo has an eye-catching headline (“Cost of pint hits £10 in London for first time”), but the
• Monday’s Press (2): In terms of Retail news in the Business sections of the papers on the Bank Holiday, the Daily Mail highlights the uncertain future for JD Sports boss Regis Schultz, ahead of the company’s finals results on Thursday (“Clash at JD Sports: Questions for chief over his future”). The Times flags that Alex Baldock has revealed that Currys pays five times as much for power as its US counterpart, Best Buy (“Currys boss bemoans the cost of UK energy”) and it also takes advantage of the fashion model photo opportunity provided by the news that unsecured creditors of the collapsed Ted Baker chain will only receive ‘pennies’ in the pound. And the Lex opinion column in the FT takes a critical look at the high valuation placed on the privately-owned Vinted second-hand clothing website (“Vinted challenges threadbare finances of second-hand style”), noting the poor share price
• BDO High Street Sales Tracker: This sales survey for medium-sized Non-Food chains that comes out on a Friday morning gets a lot of focus, because… it is the only weekly (as opposed to monthly) guide to Non-Food Retail spending trends, in terms of publicly available data. The BDO High Street Sales Tracker has a useful split of Store and Online sales, but we think the methodology is flawed and the survey is concentrated on relatively upmarket and small Fashion retailers (although it does include a handful of premium Homewares and ‘Lifestyle’ retailers). Momentum in the latest week was positive, but weekly changes are distorted by calendar shifts at this time of year, with Easter Sunday falling on April 5th (vs April 20th in 2025) …and it is bizarre that BDO failed to comment on the impact of the shift of Easter in its separate monthly overview on Friday (for the 4 weeks to April • News Flow This Week: As we move on into May, after the Bank Holiday yesterday, tomorrow brings the much-awaited Next Q1 update, followed by the much-awaited JD Sports finals on Thursday. Tomorrow also brings the Zalando Q1 results (in Germany), whilst the Howdens AGM is also on Thursday. |
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