JDW, IHG, Coca Cola HBC, US Q1 numbers, services sector, jobs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, we have a new (to us) car and my goodness, the tech has moved on.

Admittedly, we last changed vehicles 13 years ago, so it would be odd if it hadn’t but, while I’m pretty impressed overall, one thing I could do without is being beeped and bleeped at by the dashboard any more than is strictly necessary.

Because being irritated by inanimate objects is unlikely to be the highlight of my day.

Particularly when it’s stating the blooming obvious and I’m already slowing down when approaching stationary traffic at the lights.

Indeed, I’ll have to add that to the list of things that annoy me and, by the time it beeps at you, you’re either braking already and are in full control of the situation or you’re going to crash and that’s pretty much the only two scenarios available.

So, in the unfortunate event that the latter is the case, then it’s too late to do anything about it and not only will you have a bump, but it will be accompanied by some self satisfied beeping as the dashboard smirks and tells you it told you so.

Anyway, overall, very good. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

UK Services sector:

S&P has released its April Purchasing Managers’ Index for the UK’s dominant Services Sector saying that ‘UK service providers signalled a slightly improved performance in April as business activity growth picked up since the previous month.’ It says that ‘input cost inflation continued to accelerate sharply due to surging fuel prices’ but notes that the index came in at 52.7 in April, up from March’s 11-month low of 50.5…

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Market size:

Lumina Intelligence’s latest Operator Data Index has revealed that the market value of the UK’s pubs and bars market could reach £24.6bn by the end of this year. It adds that revenue may rise by 1.5% despite a 1.2% drop in outlets….

Jobs market:

TG Jones, which has taken on the former WH Smith’s High Street estate, looks set to propose the closure of up to 150 sites in order to secure a financial rescue….

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Food costs:

Grosvenor Group, which is a major agricultural company as well as a prop co, tells The Guardian that fertiliser shortages caused by the Iran war have driven up costs for UK farmers by up to 70% and will have a “dramatic” impact on food prices globally next year…

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JD WETHERSPOON – Q3 UPDATE CONFERENCE CALL:

Following the release of its Q3 update yesterday morning, JD Wetherspoon hosted a call for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below:

Re profit guidance: What has changed? Change is ‘not so much in the costs, more on where we see sales going. H2 could see slower sales growth than H1. House broker has cut from £70m to £66m PBT estimate. House broker is at £82m for the next FY. Is the consumer more cautious? Bar vs food? LFL trends are similar in terms of behaviour but ‘overall, momentum has slowed a little bit’. This is the case for both bar & food. H1 LFLs strong but weaker in Q3, hence the caution. January was a poor month for the industry. Trading has ‘picked up from that level’ but it could see slower growth than that seen in H1. How much are franchised pubs contributing? Overall, JDW is ‘very pleased with the progress so far.’ There are more to come. Two sites in Barcelona to open either side of Christmas 2026.

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COMPANY NEWS:

JD Wetherspoon shares shrugged off its latest profit warning yesterday and finished the day up around 1% or 7p.

DGE shares yesterday reacted positively to the group’s trading update, finishing trade up by 94p or around 6.3%.

JD Wetherspoon yesterday commented on Michael O’Leary’s proposal that licensed premises at airports should be limited to selling two drinks each to customers saying that it ‘would be very difficult to manage and would be regarded as an unnecessarily “big brother” approach by many people….’

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Coca Cola HBC today updates on Q1 trading saying that it has made a ‘good start to the year with 11.6% organic revenue growth.’ The company adds that reported ‘revenue grew 12.0%, driven by strong organic growth and a small benefit from FX translation…’

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Property agent Jeremy Drake has acquired the ‘uniquely charming The Three Little Pigs in Crediton’ in an off-market transaction.

Overseas companies:

Campari has reported results for the three months ending March 31, saying that it ‘registered solid +2.9% organic topline growth in Q1 2026 reflecting broad based growth across brand houses and regions with 18 countries in growth, including core ones, as well as targeted inventory optimisation in the US on non-priority brands….’

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Restaurant Brands international, which owns the Burger King and Tim Hortons brands internationally, has reported Q1 numbers saying that system-wide sales grew by 6.2% year-over-year, including 11.1% in International. It adds that LFL sales rose by ‘3.2%, including 5.8% at BK US and 5.7% at International…’

Dine Brands Global, which owns the IHOP and Applebee’s chains, has reported Q1 numbers saying that it ‘improved comp sales versus the prior year with all brands outperforming.’ CEO John Peyton says ‘we’re confident in the progress of our strategy and continue to make great progress on our dual brand opportunity where we remain on track to achieve approximately 80 domestic restaurants by the end of the year.’

US coffee company Dutch Bros yesterday beat Q1 expectations saying that revenues rose 31% in the first quarter due to both strong traffic and same-store sales growth. LFL sales rose by 8.3% in the period, down to a 5.1% increase in transactions…

BJ’s Restaurants in the US has reported Q1 numbers saying that same-store sales rose 2.4% year over year, driven by a 2.2% increase in traffic. The chain has now recorded seven straight quarters of LFL sales and traffic growth.

DoorDash yesterday reported Q1 numbers saying that Total Orders increased 27% year-over-year to 933 million and revenue increased 33% year on year to $4.0 billion. The company reports that GAAP net income attributable to DoorDash, Inc. common stockholders decreased 5% to $184 million but reports that adjusted EBITDA rose by 28% to $754 million….

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Sky News reports that ‘KKR, the investment behemoth, has dropped out of the multibillion pound auction of bottled water brands including Perrier and San Pellegrino, narrowing the field of bidders for some of the industry’s most prized assets.’

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS – Q1 NUMBERS:

The company reports Q1 global RevPAR up 4.4%, with Americas +3.6%, EMEAA +5.6% and Greater China +5.7%. By guest type, the company reports that Q1 global rooms revenue on a comparable basis was up by strongest for Groups +7% and Business +6%, with Leisure +1%. IHG adds that ADR was up by 2.0% and occupancy +1.5%pts. Re system size, it says room numbers grew by 6.6% YOY and by 1.4% in the year to date. Net system size growth was 5.0% YOY and up by 0.9% in 2026 to date. The company reports that some $240m of its 2026’s $950m share buyback programme has been completed to date, reducing the share count by 1.1%

Outlook:

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

TTG reports comments from accountant RSM UK that some 31% of Britons have changed their travel plans as a direct result of the war in Iran. RSM maintains that 27% have opted not to take a holiday in the next 12 months with others changing destinations or opting for a staycation….

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Marriott International has reported Q1 numbers saying that REVPAR rose by ‘4.2 percent worldwide, with 4.0 percent growth in the U.S. & Canada and 4.6 percent growth in international markets.’ It adds that Q1 reported diluted EPS totalled $2.43…

Uber yesterday reported Q1 numbers saying that its business had been impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. It reported that its Q1 revenues were $13.2bn, a little below analysts’ estimates of $13.3bn. The shares rose by around 9%, however, as it pointed to better than expected customer spending and profits for the current quarter.

OTHER LEISURE:

Flutter has reported Q1 numbers saying that revenue rose by 17% to $4.304bn. Re the outlook, the company says that ‘April performance on an underlying basis was in line with our expectations across both the US and International.’ However, the group says ‘we are updating guidance’ and adds that ‘group revenue is now expected to be $18.305bn with adjusted EBITDA of $2.865bn at the midpoint. This reflects a reduction from previous guidance of $18.4bn and $2.97bn in revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations respectively, with updated guidance now representing 12% and 1% year-over-year growth….’

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Sky News reports that ‘Vue, Europe’s largest cinema operator, is hiring bankers to oversee a sale or stock market listing which could value it at well over £1bn in anticipation of a summer of blockbuster film releases.’ It says that ‘the prospective appointment of advisers will signal an exit for the group of investors which took control of the company in a post-Covid financial restructuring.’

Walt Disney Corp, which has a September year end, yesterday reported Q2 numbers saying that revenue rose overall despite a drop in visitor numbers to its US theme parks, where attendance was down by 1% on a year ago….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling mixed at $1.3597 and €1.1574. Oil sharply lower at $101.85. UK 10 year gilt yield down around 13 basis points at 4.94%. World markets much better yesterday & London set to open around 16 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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