Economy, spending, GRG, NICL, Tilray, Coke, Chapel Down & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I don’t remember the price of many things but, even to me, there are some Known Value Items, or KVIs.

Most of these, admittedly, don’t stretch beyond beer, bread and dogfood.

But, for some reason, actually the obvious one, that I am a reliable consumer of said products, I happen to know the price of Haribo sweets.

Which is relatively simple because, whether it’s Tangfastic or Supermix or whatever, you shouldn’t pay more than £1.25 for a 175g bag because that’s the price they are in supermarkets.

And they pretty much last forever and it’s hard for any other shop (or cinema) to add much further value, so why pay more?

There’s location and convenience, of course.

But, when noting that the packets were £4.69 in a well-known, now wholly travel-related, retailer’s shop at Manchester Airport, let’s call it WH Smith’s, I decided that I might have to go cold turkey, at least for as long as it took me to get to Tesco on the way home.

Anyway, good luck to them.

If they can’t make money on a markup of a million billion per cent (Pres. Donald Trump maths), then they never will. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Economy:

The CBI reports that pessimism amongst UK industry bosses has eased ‘a touch’. We’ll take what we can get. The CBI notes that ‘firms across the private sector expect activity to fall in the three months to October (weighted balance of minus 18%). The CBI’s latest Growth Indicator is now at its ‘least negative since March’ which, on the basis that everything is relative, is good news…

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UK consumer spending:

KPMG’s UK Q2 Consumer Spending report suggests that ‘consumers are still spending, but only where they perceive value.’ It says that ‘spending entered the second half of 2026 with more underlying resilience than headline confidence indicators suggest, but demand remains highly selective.’ KPMG reports that ‘total category spending grew 6.8% year-on-year in Q2’26 driven primarily by higher spend per transaction (+4.4%) rather than increased activity….’

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Other news:

Apprenticeships. Responding to the Government announcement of a series of measures to help young people into work, UKH says that ‘the changes can have an important impact on the cost of hiring and training early career team members.’ It says the Youth Jobs Grant and Apprenticeship incentives mean that, ‘with employment costs rapidly increasing, engaging with the Government to introduce these incentives has been one of our priorities and can genuinely support businesses to reduce the cost of employment….’

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Lumina Intelligence now forecasts that the UK pub and bar market should grow in revenue terms by 2% in 2026, to hit revenues of £24.7bn. Growth here is therefore sub-inflation and, as Lumina says, it is below the wider eating out market….

Drinks in Ireland. The Drinks Industry Group of Ireland has reported that the consumption of alcohol in Ireland has fallen again in what is a continuation of the trend established around 25 years ago. The DIGI reports that alcohol consumption per adult fell by 2.1% and consumption is now down by 35.6% since it peaked in 2001.

Train strikes. Hopefully they’ll be headed off but The Guardian notes that ‘train drivers are considering strike action over a lack of toilets, with unions saying basic needs are still not addressed a year after the rail regulator told operators to provide more facilities and breaks.’

The MA notes new research as suggesting that seven out of 10 pubgoers believe the increase in televised football matches for last season’s Premier League gave them more reasons to visit pubs and bars….

COMPANY NEWS:

Chapel Down has updated on H1 trading saying that it delivered H1 net sales revenue growth of +19% to £9.4m (H1 2025: £7.9m). This was ‘in line with management expectations, reflecting continued progress across all channels.’ The company adds that ‘net debt increased to £14.0m (FY 2025: £12.4m; H1 2025: £11.3m) in line with expectations.’ Re the outlook, the company…

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West End landlord Shaftesbury has reported H1 numbers to end-June saying that it has ‘delivered strong performance, with 226 leasing transactions completing 18 per cent ahead of previous passing rents.’ It says ‘despite broader market uncertainty, our prime West End portfolio continues to deliver high footfall, customer sales growth, high occupancy and a strong pipeline.’

The MA reports that Stonegate is ‘facing fresh questions over its Pub Partners estate after operators and a pub trade adviser raised concerns about tied product pricing, tie release fees and repair processes.’

Tilray Brands, cannabis company and owner of BrewDog’s assets, has reported its Q4 and full year numbers to end-June saying that it generated record revenues of $915m in the quarter with its cannabis sales up by 34%. It reports that its ‘BrewDog acquisition ignited the global expansion of Tilray’s beverage platform, unlocking new growth through the power of brands, hospitality and consumer experiences…’

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In the US, drinks giant Coca-Cola yesterday reported Q2 numbers saying that revenue came in ahead of estimates at $13.38 billion (vs estimates of around $13.16 billion). The group reported adjusted EPS of 97 cents (93 cents expected) and it is now forecasting full year earnings growth of between 9% and 10% (up 1% on the previous range)….

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Also in the US, coffee major Starbucks has begun testing the sales of a new line of sparkling beverages in sine 100 locations in Texas.

The Times reports that Damm UK, the British arm of the Spanish brewing giant, has taken a minority stake in London-based Dalston’s Soda Co as it moves to become a ‘total beverage company’.

Wildwood owner Bow Street Group has teamed up with heritage Somerset craft cider producer Howies ‘to serve a genuine 100% British-grown cider across its UK restaurants’. The company reports that it is ‘committing to 100% British-grown, orchard-to-glass craft cider.’

NICHOLS – H1 RESULTS:

Nichols plc reports that group revenue rose by 4.7% to £89.5m with adjusted operating profit up by 3.7% at £14.1m. Adjusted PBT is up by 2.7% at £15.0m and EPS is 30.3p on an adjusted basis vs 29.9p in the prior year. The H1 dividend is up by 34.7% at 20.2p vs 15.0p in H1 last year.

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GREGG’S – H1 RESULTS:

Gregg’s reports total sales of £1.102bn vs £1.028bn in the same period last year, up 7.2%. It reports PBT of £76.0m (vs £63.5m) and diluted EPS of 54.9p (H1-25: 45.3p). The dividend for H1 is held at 19.0p. The company reports LFL sales up 2.1% at managed shops with franchised LFL sales up 1.3% and ‘additional growth from estate expansion and B2B partnership development.’ It says it has continued to ‘grow share and overall volumes in a challenging market’ with ‘share of visits up 0.3 percentage points to 8.7% for the 12 months to June 2026.’ The company reports that ‘profit growth reflects a soft comparator period together with growth in grocery business, strong cost control and the phasing of cost inflation.’ Spring 2025 was hot. The Board’s ‘expectations for the full-year outcome are unchanged.’

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Leeds-based coach and short break holiday company Caledonia Leisure has reported another year of ‘strong financial performance’ saying that turnover for the year to end-December 2025 rose to £74m, up from £64m in the prior year. PBT was up by over 30% at £3.81m….

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US brand owner Hilton Hotels yesterday reported Q2 numbers saying that system-wide comparable RevPAR rose by 3.9% in constant currency terms. EBITDA came in at $1.064bn and net income was $482m and the group reported adjusted EPS of some $2.29. The group is guiding to a RevPAR increase of between 3.0% and 3.5% for the full year.

Cruise company Royal Caribbean Group has reported Q2 numbers saying that total revenue rose by 6% to $4.8 billion and net Income came in at $1.1 billion or $4.20 per share. On an adjusted basis, Net Income was $1.1 billion or $4.21 per share…

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OTHER LEISURE:

Football. Quoting ‘people familiar with the matter’, the FT reports that ‘Fifa is planning to sell a significant minority stake in a new commercial entity valued at about $20bn, as it seeks to cash in on the success of this summer’s World Cup…..’

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Play Padel, which is backed by cricket star Joe Root, is reported to have secured £1.2m in financing to fund the opening of its second site.

Caution from BetMGM, which is jointly owned by Entain and MGM Resorts International, as it updates on Q2 trading saying that the ‘performance reflects continued delivery of profitable growth and cash generation.’ Net Revenue was up 3% at $711m and adjusted EBITDA was $74m. The group adds that, ‘reflecting year-to-date performance, [the company] expect both Net Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA towards lower end of existing guidance ranges.’

The BBC reports that eBay and some former executives have agreed to pay a couple $56m (£42m) after a campaign of harassment in retaliation for their online criticism of the firm.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling mixed at €1.1661 and $1.3296. Oil little-changed at $87.15. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.97%. World markets mostly better yesterday but London set to open around 15 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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