Change of use, VAT, jobs, holiday demand, GDK, Amber Taverns & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, it had to happen and now it’s here, one of the independent department stores in York is now stocking Christmas gear.

I hope they’re just marketing to pubs & restaurants, businesses that have to cement their Christmas plans early but I fear that they aren’t.

Because there’s a couple of aisles now of trees, Santas, fake snow machines, baubles and bangles and, check watch, it’s mid-August.

At least they may have skipped Halloween but no, a further glance confirms that they have not, there are ghosts and ghouls a plenty.

Anyway, maybe I just need to get with the times. But well done York City, beating Bristol Rovers in the club’s first match in the football leagues in ten years.

We or rather I should say ‘they’ as I shouldn’t be a glory-supporter this early in the season, are sixth in the league, albeit with only one match played.

Rain this week, that’ll be a shock and the dog will blame me. She’ll give me that ‘I’m not angry, I’m disappointed’ look.

It’s a slow week for company news but quite a bit on the economics front to let’s move on to what there is:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Change of use:

Housing secretary Angela Rayner is set to introduce legislation to protect pubs from being turned into housing or offices later this week. She will say that, whilst the plan remains to build 1.5m homes before the end of this parliament (a target that has become quite a challenge now), these numbers will not be boosted on the margin by the change of use of an existing building from a pub…

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Jobs:

Figures from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation have suggested that the UK jobs market got something of a boost this summer on the back of good weather and a boost to the hospitality industry over the World Cup. The ONS will report official jobs and wage data tomorrow. Meanwhile, the REC says that at this time last year ‘there was concern about the death of the great British summer job’ but this has not been the case this year. It says that ‘exceptionally warm weather and a busy calendar of sporting, music and cultural events … has helped boost demand for workers….’

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VAT & hospitality:

Christie & Co has added its voice to calls that the government should cut the rate of VAT for hospitality from 20% to 10% saying that it could unlock investment and support jobs. The MCA quotes Christie’s Stephen Owens as saying that ‘hospitality businesses have faced a prolonged period of cost pressures’. He adds that ‘inflationary increases in food and drink, higher wage costs, utilities, and borrowing costs have all impacted operating margins in recent years….’

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Other news:

Cask Ale Week will see Britain’s pubs offering mass sampling to promote the Nation’s drink. The sampling campaign will see 10,000 pubs offer at least 100 freshly poured shots of cask ale each throughout Cask Ale Week, which runs from 17-27 September 2026….

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World Cup. Some minor cannibalisation. Amber Taverns Chairman James Baer has said that the increased spend over the World Cup ‘can only be spent once and customers are still being squeezed.’ On a brighter note, he says ‘there’s been a boost in consumer confidence since Andy Burnham took over as PM, which is good, but people need to see more money in their pockets and have greater disposable incomes.’

COMPANY NEWS:

GDK, German Doner Kebab, has appointed Wayne Shurvinton as CEO to replace Simon Wallis, who was CEO of the kebab chain from 2023…

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The MA reports Amber Taverns chair, James Baer, as saying that new CEO Richard Lewis will seek to accelerate pub acquisitions to as many as 25 pubs a year but he insists quality must not be compromised….

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Shepherd Neame reports that, after a ‘major transformation’, The Coach and Horses in Mayfair will reopen on 25 August. The reopening will also ‘see the launch of a new food offer centred around speciality flatbreads and charcuterie boards, complementing Shepherd Neame’s range of award-winning Kentish ales and lagers, premium English wines, spirits and soft drinks.’

US at-home operator HelloFresh has reported Q2 numbers saying that sales fell by 7.8% to €1.5bn in H1 as a whole, with order numbers down 12.6% as the company sought to focus on sales with higher margins. The group is retaining its existing full year guidance…

Sky News reports that Au Vodka, which is based in Wales, is close to a sale to the Kentucky-based owner of brands such as BuzzBallz and Southern Comfort, Sazerac, for as much as £500m, albeit when future payments are factored in.

Spirits company Distil Plc has confirmed that David Smith has today joined the board as Chief Executive Officer, completing the board changes announced by the Company on 15 July 2026

The MA reports that Brookfield Drinks has acquired the Crabbie’s alcoholic ginger beer brand from Halewood Artisanal Spirits. Brookfield says ‘Crabbie’s is a must stock product within the fast growing fruit and flavoured beer market.’ It adds that ‘the brand has outstanding heritage and awareness, not only within the UK but internationally as well.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Money worries and holidays. A survey conducted by thinkmoney has suggested that, whilst holidays are meant to be a time for relaxation, money worries do blight some or all of the break for around for as many as 42% of holidaymakers….

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Eastern Med quieter than hoped. The FT reports that ‘beach resorts in Turkey and Cyprus are cutting prices to attract tourists, as consumer concern over the Middle East conflict and a growing tendency for last-minute bookings combine to leave vacancies during the traditional peak season….’

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The UK staycation market. Whilst private companies accounts do tend to be a little historic by the time they are released, they can give us an insight into the market. Suffolk Street Holdings, which acquired 100% of the share capital of Haulfryn Group on 20 April 2022, has reported results for the year to 31 Jan 2026 to Companies’ House. The company operates nine holiday camps comprising chalets and static caravans in the South West, Wales and Cheshire. It reports revenues rose by 7.1% to £33.01m. The GP%, which will be influenced by the sales mix between home sales, rentals and other income, rose to 60.9% from 57.8% in the prior year. Gross profit in absolute terms was £20.09m against £17.75m in FY25…..

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OTHER LEISURE:

Meta. The BBC reports that ‘Meta has been hit with successive losses in court over how its platforms have targeted and harmed young users, but a jury trial set to begin on Tuesday may pose the biggest threat yet to its operations.’ It says that the trial, which stems from a lawsuit filed in 2023 by 30 US states, including California and New York, in which they claim numerous violations of federal and state privacy laws for children, could seek massive damages of up to $1 trillion…

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

Eurostat has reported that GDP in the Eurozone grew 0.4% in Q2 per its ‘flash’ estimate. It says that jobs growth was slower with the number of jobs created up by only 0.1% in the same period.

The US government last week sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield seen since 2001. The price demanded by investors on Thursday was 5.216% for 30-year money.

Fitch has retained its rating on UK sovereign debt at AA- with a ‘stable’ outlook. Fitch says that the ‘UK’s ratings ‌are supported by its high-income, large, diversified and flexible economy, credible macroeconomic policy framework, and financing flexibility from deep capital markets and sterling’s international reserve currency status.’

Rightmove reports that the average price of a home coming on the market fell by over £7,000 in what is the traditionally quiet month of August. The platform has cut its estimate for UK house growth this year from 2% to a range of between 0% and 2%….

Sterling up at €1.1694 and $1.3549. Oil down at $88.50. UK 10 year gilt up by 8 basis points (and through 5% again) at 5.04%. world markets mixed on Friday and into Monday and London set to open up by around 22 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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