Cost inflation, jobs market, wage costs, trading, Time Out & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

When I was a boy, OK, I was in the scouts for a brief period, I used to be able to navigate using a map and compass.

I used to be able to pick out landmarks.

I knew how to adjust for the difference between magnetic north and the north on an OS map and I used to know roughly where the sun should be, left shoulder, right shoulder, straight ahead or whatever, at various times of the day if I was walking in the right direction.

But I didn’t particularly like walking and, now that I do, I’ve forgotten all of the above and a lot more besides.

Now I just pick a destination, do a bit of what even I have to smirk when I call it map-reading research and head off the right way.

But, within ten minutes or so, the landmarks that I’m supposed to be passing aren’t making themselves apparent, the sun would suggest I’m doing a circular walk clockwise when I meant to do it anti-clockwise and I have to fall back on the old favourite – that is walk until your chocolate runs out or you find a pub, whichever comes sooner, then turn around and hope you can find your way back.

So I’d better avoid walking near the A9 in Scotland where, the Ordnance Survey tells us, it’s possible to walk for 71.5km without hitting a road.

Anyway, enough of that. Not much going on but let’s move on to what news there is:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Foodservice cost inflation:

NIQ and Prestige Purchasing have released their monthly Foodservice Price Index saying that food and drink prices in hospitality rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July. The report notes that, while the pace of monthly price increases slowed from 1.8% in June, inflationary pressures remain firmly embedded in foodservice supply chains….’

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Trading:

The Oxford Partnership updates on summer trading saying that ‘the latter stages of the FIFA World Cup and prolonged hot weather combined to deliver one of the strongest trading months of 2026 for the UK On Trade. Its Market Watch suggests that ‘total draught volumes increased by 3.9% compared with July 2025…marking a significant improvement on the softer volume performance recorded during the first half of the year….’

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Labour market:

The ONS has this morning updated on the UK employment market – employment, unemployment, wage growth etc – for the period to July this year saying that employment numbers edged down, unemployment edged up, vacancy numbers fell and average pay growth edged up slightly excluding bonuses, but it slipped a little when the impact of bonuses was added in…

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Other news:

Food security. Prestige Purchasing founder David Read tells the MCA that, re food security, ‘there is a bigger risk in 2027 than there is in 2026 as the longer-term impact of low winter stocks and higher feed-costs feed through. But if you take a longer horizon, there is an even bigger problem looming, if the trend we are seeing now continues.’

Consumer confidence: S&P Global has issued its latest UK consumer sentiment index and has found that household confidence has dipped and is at its lowest level since 2023. The index fell to 42.9 for August from 43.4 in July. S&P says ‘job insecurity is now at its highest in nearly three and a half years, with incomes falling for the first time since April 2023….’

Pub protection. UKH CEO Allen Simpson has told the MA that ‘the biggest issue facing hospitality businesses is costs like VAT and business rates pushing pubs out of business in the first place.’ He says ‘anything that makes it harder to take these important assets away from their communities has to be welcomed, but the Government should focus on continuing its strong start on fixing the harm done to hospitality over the past two years….’

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Brewing standards. A number of operators have added to commitments to support the Guild Advisory Board including Timothy Taylor’s. Wells & Co, Asahi UK, JD Wetherspoon and Fuller’s. Their support will help cover the Guild, which was set up in 2024, to cover its administration and marketing costs….

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US wine imports: US wine imports fell in both volume and value terms in H1 this year reports the Spanish Wine Interprofessional Organisation. The Trump administration added tariffs at a rate of 15% to products from the European Union last August. These remained in place for all of H1 this year.

COMPANY NEWS:

Time Out has updated on trading for its end-June financial year saying that ‘group revenue for the year ended 30 June 2026 is expected to be approximately £72m (FY25: £73m), with revenue from continuing operations up 11% to £61m (FY25: £55m).’ The company says Continuing Market revenue of £40m represents an increase of 8% (FY25: £37m).’ it adds that ‘markets continue to trade in line with management expectations’ and says that ‘the portfolio comprised 13 operational Markets at the year end, with five further Markets in development.’ Continuing Media revenue is around £21m, up 17%….

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Loungers’ brand Cosy Club is to open its first site at an airport next year when it begins operating at Bristol Airport.

KellyDeli UK has reported results to 31 December 2025 saying that revenue rose by 10.3% to £66.3m but operating profit was down by 19.4% at £0.5m and PBT fell to £0.1m.

The Caterer reports that Splendid Hospitality Group has invested £1.6m in two new KFC restaurants in the northeast of England.

Restructuring adviser Hilco is seeking offers to acquire the intellectual property and tangible assets of Rare Bird Distillery Limited on behalf of the Proposed Liquidator of the Company.

Uber is partnering with Zipline, a leader in drone delivery, to significantly scale up drone deliveries across the US.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Virgin Trains has been given permission by The Office of Rail & Road to use the line between London to the channel tunnel should it be successful in setting up a service to the Continent. The company says its ‘plans for a new London – Europe rail service from 2030 are moving at pace.’

OTHER LEISURE:

FIFA COO Kevin Lamour has been sacked some three weeks after criticising his boss, Gianni Infantino’s plan to sell stakes in FIFA competitions to outside investors reports the BBC.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For employment data & costs see Pubs & Restaurants above.

The CBI is calling for a national partnership to make AI work for Britain. It says the government should ‘make AI adoption a national economic priority and work with business on a shared ambition to make the UK the world’s leading human-centric, AI-enabled economy.’

Borrowing costs across a number of G7 countries are now hitting almost 20-year highs. Debt costs are hitting post-2008 highs in France, Germany, the US, Japan and the UK.

Sterling slightly lower at €1.1694 and $1.3532. Oil up around $3 at $91.46. UK 10 year gilt yield up 5 basis points – and cementing its position above 5% – at 5.09%. world markets lower yesterday but London set to open broadly unchanged as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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