Loungers, Pernod, RCL, Consumer Confidence, Red Flags, delivery etc.:

Loungers, Pernod, RCL, Consumer Confidence, Red Flags, delivery etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I was thinking, for absolutely no reason the other day, about the simile ‘as graceful as a cat’ because, as with many things, it depends on context.

I mean a cat thrashing around in a duck pond will look about as graceful as a duck on a catwalk. Probable less so but, if the brutal bird-killer is slinking around eyeing its surroundings then, of course, I get it.

Just saying, is all.

Anyway, it’s Friday and, whilst it’s not quite Crackerjack time, we’re getting to the end of the week and it’s a big weekend – and next few days – for the Championship where, as we all know, the real football in this country is played.

So, have a good weekend and let’s move on to the news.

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LOUNGERS FY TRADING UPDATE:

Loungers has this morning updated on full year trading and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: The update is for the 53 weeks to 21 April 2024. Loungers reports that it has ‘delivered record total revenue for the financial year of £353.5m, up 24.7% on the previous year (FY23: £283.5m).’ The company adds that ‘excluding the benefit of the 53rd week total sales were up 22.2%.’ It says the ‘sales performance reflects both continuing strong like for like sales growth (+7.5% across the 53 weeks) and the ongoing success of our new site opening programme.’ Re costs and margin, LGRS says ‘the strength of our sales performance has been accompanied by disciplined management of costs and a continued easing of inflationary cost pressures and, accordingly, we expect EBITDA for FY24 to be ahead of market expectations.’

Balance sheet:  LGRS reports ‘our balance sheet remains strong, with non-property net debt at 21 April 2024 of £9.7m (16 April 2023: £6.1m).’ It says ‘year-end…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer Confidence

GfK has reported that this has improved two points in April. GfK says that four measures were up and one stayed the same in comparison to last month’s announcement. Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says ‘headline confidence edged forward in April to minus 19….’

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Red Flag Alert:

Accountant Begbies Traynor has released its latest Red Flag Alert saying that over ‘over half a million UK businesses fighting for survival as UK economy stagnates.’ It says that the number is up 30.8% year over year. Begbies reports that ‘each of the 22 sectors covered by Red Flag Alert research experienced a double-digit growth in financial distress over the last year….

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Delivery:

CGA has reported that ‘at-home sales for Britain’s leading managed restaurant groups were virtually flat year-on-year in March 2024.’ It says that ‘like-for-like sales of deliveries and takeaways were just 0.8% ahead of March 2023.’ CGA adds ‘this is a 10th consecutive month of year-on-year growth, but down on the figures of 4% and 3% in January and February 2024 respectively….’

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The UK restaurant market:

Lumina Intelligence reports restaurant outlet growth is projected to stabilise in 2024 following a period of site closures aimed at reducing debt. Leading brands are forecasted to see flat outlet growth, with the sector moving towards consolidation through strategic restructuring and acquisitions….

Deposit Return Scheme delayed:

The Deposit Return Scheme in the UK has been delayed until October 2027, with governments committing to aligned schemes across the UK….

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Other news:

CAMRA has called on the Government to support the newly proposed Heritage Pubs Bill which aims to protect community pubs, inspired by the destruction of the historic Crooked House pub in Himley, West Midlands.

The World Health Organization has reported that England has the highest rates of alcohol consumption among school children across a study of over 40 countries.

CASH FLOWS, TIMING ETC:

Herewith a piece that we put out to clients earlier in the month.

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COMPANY NEWS:

Pernod Ricard reports Q3 sales below expectations due to economic challenges in key markets like the US and China, where consumers resisted price increases. Organic net sales remained stable compared to last year but fell 2% overall. Despite this, the company maintains its medium-term sales growth guidance and predicts a 1% increase in organic profit for the full year. A more positive development was that India saw strong consumer demand, particularly for brands like Jameson's Irish whiskey and Absolut vodka….

Chipotle in the US has reported that it saw strong Q1 results with total transactions up 5% driven by popular menu items…

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Lavazza is set to increase its stake in vending machine operator IVS Group for €185m, with plans to fully acquire the business in 2027….

Nestle experienced a decline in sales in the first quarter of 2024 after implementing price increases, with total sales falling 5.9% internationally to 22.1 billion Swiss Francs (£19.4bn)….

Hog’s Back Brewery is to purchase London craft brewer Mondo as a part of a pre-pack administration.

HOLIDAYS, HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

ACI Europe warns that many of Europe's smaller regional airports are facing financial challenges, struggling to recover air traffic and manage pandemic-era debt….

Royal Caribbean Group has announced record bookings and strong onboard consumer spending during its Q1….

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Hilton Worldwide has reported first-quarter numbers saying that business demand was strong. The company reports that there was ‘strong demand in consulting and government contracting.’ CEO Christopher Nassetta said Wednesday during an earnings call that ‘business transient recovery remained steady’ and added ‘when you talk to customers …  you get a very positive view about their people traveling more for business.’ He adds ‘and because the economy has been resilient and employment has been strong, I think it helps with the underpinning….’

Labour plans to nationalise the rail network, bringing routes under the control of a publicly owned organisation called Great British Railways (GBR). Shadow transport secretary Louise Haigh will also promise a ‘best-price ticket guarantee,’ automatic delay repay schemes, and digital season tickets.

WH Smith’s shares fell yesterday despite strong growth across its travel businesses located in airports and train stations. Sales in this division were up some 15%.

OTHER LEISURE:

The Gym Group has reported that it has appointed Savills to ‘advise on its site selection, as it plans for circa 50 new openings across the UK over the next three years…’

TikTok's Chinese parent company ByteDance has said that it has no intention of selling the business despite the US passing a law saying that, if it did not do so, TikTok could be banned in the US.

Microsoft yesterday beat Wall Street’s Q1 expectations. The market concluded that its heavy bet on artificial intelligence was paying off. The shares rose 4% in after-hours trading.

Google (and YouTube) parent Alphabet has reported better than expected Q1 numbers and has introduced its first ever dividend. The group’s shares rose by almost 16% in after-hours trading.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

US GDP missed forecasts in Q1 this year with growth of 1.6%. Growth was 3.4% in Q4 last year and economists had been looking for 2.4% in Q1.

US inflation remains stubbornly high with the US Department of Commerce saying that prices were rising at 3.4% per annum in Q1, up from 1.8% in Q4 last year…

Lloyds Banking Group, which owns The Halifax and which reported Q1 numbers earlier in the week, has said that it expects UK property prices to rise by 1.5 per cent this year, having previously suggested a 2.2 per cent fall.

Sterling up at $1.2498 and €1.1662. Oil up at $89.37. UK 10 year gilt yield up 2 basis points at 4.36%. World markets broadly better yesterday and London set to open some 53 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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