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Jobs market, disposable incomes, timing, SSPG, Watchhouse & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So, here’s a question for you, how long is a minute? And yes, it’s sixty seconds – but is it really?

It probably is if it’s preceded by a comment like ‘skip ads in one minute.’

Or, usually, if your microwave is counting you down from sixty – unless you’ve got a cheep, spin the dial one in which case it could be a random period of time – but, when somebody says ‘I’ll be with you in a minute’ (or more ominously, ‘have you got a minute?’) then you know it would be foolish to take the comment quite literally.

And time must differ across people.

From some, in-a-minute translates to perhaps 10, 12, 15 minutes – it can take a while to pick out your shoes – but ‘in a minute’ coming from a grumpy old man could easily be followed by ‘alright, what?’ within just a few seconds.

And, talking about grumpy old men, the subject to which the time is attached is of relevance because, if it’s Langton’s quarter’s VAT return we’re on about, ‘in a minute’ could mean anything from the literal to a month or more, dependent on cash flow.

Hence, there we are.

Einstein eat your heart out. None of that gravity or speed of light nonsense, time is arguably like beauty. It’s the eye of the beholder that decides what it means, not the laws of physics.

But enough of that, we’re being promised a glorious weekend. And the pubs’ tills should be singing so, without further ado, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Disposable incomes:

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said that chancellor Rachel Reeves is a "gnat's whisker" away from having to raise taxes in the autumn. The Chancellor has insisted that her plans are fully funded but, with the economy basically flat-lining, the think tank is not sure that that is the case. The IFS has said that any further contractions in the economy would likely mean taxes would have to rise.

And the Spending Review suggests that council tax is likely to rise by the maximum of 5% next year – and for several years thereafter, the highest raise possible without councils seeking specific government approval. This will put some pressure on disposable incomes.

Spending review:

British Institute of Innkeeping CEO Steve Alton comments on the above and, whilst he welcomes extra spend in some areas, he calls for the government to avoid adding additional taxes on hospitality services...

Economic growth:

The ONS’s announcement that the UK economy contracted in April has attracted comment. The CBI says ‘after bumper growth at the start of the year, the economy has started off the second quarter on a disappointing note.’ It adds that ‘weaker momentum is more in line with the picture painted by our own business surveys....’

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Employment trends:

Employment trends drive both the ability and the desire to spend. KPMG and REC have produced their UK Report on Jobs for June 2025 saying that the market has softened further. They say ‘candidate supply expands at sharpest rate since end of 2020’ but they seem to suggest that the pace of the slowdown has moderated when they add that ‘demand for staff falls at softest rate in eight months’. They add ‘pay growth strengthens but remains below historical trend....’

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Other news:

A report compiled by Global Data for VoucherCodes.co.uk has suggested that the Women’s Euros tournament, which will run from 2 to 27 July this year, should provide some £259.3m in extra income to the hospitality sector...

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TIMING IS EVERYTHING:

Below excerpts from a note sent to clients last week. Getting it right is one thing, getting the timing right can be quite another because, if you’re too early, you’re wrong....

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COMPANY NEWS:

SSP Group is reported to have extended its partnership with The Netherlands’ NS Stations, the owner of railway stations in the country, to run 12 existing Burger King restaurants across the rail network....

Flat Iron is to open new sites in Brighton and Bristol. The group currently operates in London with existing units in the regions in Cambridge, Manchester, and Leeds.

Coffee chain WatchHouse has announced the opening of its second U.S. location in the landmark Chrysler Building—an ‘address known worldwide for its rich architectural heritage and timeless New York glamour’. WatchHouse says ‘the launch marks a milestone in WatchHouse’s international expansion and follows the successful debut of its U.S. flagship at 660 Fifth Avenue in spring 2024.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Flight Air India 171 crashed shortly after take-off from the Indian city of Ahmedabad. At the time of writing there is thought to be only one survivor  from the plane and 241 fatalities with an unknown number of people killed and injured on the ground...

London Gatwick Airport has appointed Pierre-Hugues Schmit as its new CEO. Mr Schmit is currently chief commercial and operational officer at Vinci Airports and is a NED on the Gatwick board.

Tourism minister Sir Chris Bryant has said that outbound tourism and inbound tourism are equally important. He told ABTA’s Travel Matters conference that there are regional airports that would not be viable without outbound tourism.

OTHER LEISURE:

The Guardian reports that England’s football system is “under strain” in a climate of tension between commercial imperatives and the needs of supporters, according to a new report from Deloitte....

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

The RICS has said that a balance of negative 25 percentage points of surveyor respondents reported a fall in new buyer enquiries in May. This is the fifth consecutive month of decline but the number is up on those for March and April.

President Trump has said that a deal with China is done. China has taken a more cautious view, saying only that it would ‘honour its commitments’ without saying what those commitments may be. Both sides agree that they have crafted a ‘framework’ to begin the process.

Oil prices leapt overnight after Israel said it had struck Iran in what was immediately seen as an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The price of the commodity rose by over 10% on the news.

Sterling lower at $1.3534 and €1.1744. Oil sharply higher after Israeli attack on Iran at $75.07. UK 10 year gilt yield down 6 basis points at 4.49%. World markets upset by Israeli attack & London set to open some 48 points lower as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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