JDW H1, Time Out, consumer confidence, packaging costs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

In the English language, I often think that there aren’t exceptions to any given rule, exception is the rule, I mean take I before E except after C, for example.

What about leisure, weird, height and all the rest and I find something similar going on when I think about plurals.

I consider companies, boards of directors and political parties in the third person, singular.

And why wouldn’t I ?

Unilever produces Marmite, for example, it’s not a ‘they’ and that seems sensible but what about football teams?

It would be odd to think of Newcastle United or Hull City in the singular so where do you draw the line? That must be something that Copy Editors have struggled with forever so answers on a postcard, please.

On to the news:

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JD WETHERSPOON – H1 NUMBERS:

Headline numbers: JDW reports LFL revenue growth of 4.8% in H125. Total sales were £1.03bn, up some 3.9% on last year, reflecting a number of site disposals. PBT (after exceptional items) was £41.3m (2024: £26.1m) and basic EPS is up 82.9% at 27.8p (2024: 15.2p). ‘Separately disclosed items’ comprised a credit last year driven by the movement on interest rate swaps and this year it comprises largely asset impairments and losses on disposals. The company reports that LFL sales increased by 4.8% - bar sales increased by 4.3%, food by 5.4% and slot/fruit machines by 12.4%. Having reinstated dividends at its finals for July 2024, JDW reports a H1 dividend of 4.0p (2024: nil).

Company comment:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Interest rates

The Bank of England yesterday voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.5%. One member preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.25%. The MPC notes that ‘there has been substantial progress on disinflation over the past two years, as previous external shocks have receded, and as the restrictive stance of monetary policy has curbed second-round effects and stabilised longer-term inflation expectations….’

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Consumer confidence:

GfK has reported that consumer confidence is the UK rose by one point in March. It says that there were ‘marginal improvements in perceptions of [the] UK economy but confidence is still fragile.’ GfK says that its measure rose by one point to minus 19 in March. It says that two measures were up, two were down and one was unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement….

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Extended Producer Responsibility legislation:

UKH says that ‘the ‘flawed’ Extended Producer Responsibility scheme will force businesses to pay twice for recycling, and pass the cost onto consumers.’ It says it has written to the government ‘to call for packaging supplied to hospitality businesses to be exempt from EPR.’ UKH says that ‘as a result of poor policy design, bottles of beer and wine are incorrectly classified as household waste and subject to a packaging levy, despite not ever leaving the hospitality premises….’

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Staffing issues:

A survey of 1,000 companies by Business LDN suggests that firms in London are struggling to recruit staff, with four in five businesses having vacancies. Applicants are said to have become more picky with many demanding the ability to work from home.

ONS data suggests that the economic inactivity rate has risen to 21.5% in the three months to January.

Co-founder of Simpsons’ Wine Estate, Ruth Simpson, has told Drinks Business that potential Trump tariffs on champagne could benefit England’s sparkling wine producers.

Maximise Market Research has reported that the global gin market could reach US$22.73 billion by 2030…

The EU has delayed retaliatory measures including a 50% levy on whiskey, which it had previously said it would impose in response to earlier Trump tariffs. The delay will see tariffs introduced on 13 rather than 1 April. The EU says that this is ‘a slight adjustment to the timeline and does not diminish the impact of our response.’

COMPANY NEWS:

JDW – see above.

Time Out Group plc has announced that Time Out Market Osaka opens to the public today. The company says ‘the first Time Out Market to open in Asia, this is the Company's eleventh food and cultural market and fifth Management Agreement. There are a further five Management Agreements and one Owned & Operated site signed and due to open between 2025 and 2027, and more in advanced negotiations….’

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Ronnie Scott’s, which was founded in 1950 operates the world-famous jazz club located on Frith Street in Soho, has reported full year numbers to end-March 2024 to Companies’ House. Trading – numbers: The company reports revenues up by 2.2% to £14.2m with gross profit down slightly to £8.8m from £8.9m in the prior year. The GP% margin fell to 61.9% from 64.1% in the prior year. Admin costs have been held broadly unchanged (up a smidgeon) at £5.6m and operating profit is £3.1m against £3.3m in FY23. Interest receivable has risen on higher rates to £170k from £162k. PBT is a healthy £3.3m down from an even more healthy £3.4m in the prior year. The group paid a dividend for the year of £3.8m (FY23: £3.0m)….

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Thatcher’s Cider Company Limited, which is an independent, privately owned fourth-generation cider company established in 1904, has reported results for the year to end-August 2024 to Companies House. The company reports revenues up by 16.3% to £203.9m with gross profit up by 10.7% at £78.2m. The GP% slipped from 40.3% in FY23 to 38.3% in 2024. Admin and distribution costs are up by 12.7%, holding back the growth in operating profit to 3.4% (at £15.6m). Interest costs have risen on higher rates and PBT is up by 1.5% to £15.8m…..

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BOOK REVIEW: Pt II.

Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me) by Carol Tavris & Elliott Aronson – 2007:

People who do not learn from their mistakes are destined to repeat them. So it says and here the authors look into why we may be programmed to airbrush our mistakes and, whilst that may protect our psyche, it does mean that we can be slow to learn. Mistakes may be undeniable but, putting them in the passive voice – or better still, blaming them on somebody else – seems to be the way to go.

Summary of Part I - Mistakes may sometimes be undeniable but the tendency is to blame them on somebody or something other than oneself. This is a) deeply ingrained but b) it hampers the ability to learn from one’s mistakes. Closed minds & tunnel vision,,,

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Heathrow Airport it to be closed all day today following a "significant" power outage caused by a fire at a nearby electrical substation. The airport has warned, unsurprisingly, of "significant disruption" over the coming days. It has told passengers not to travel "under any circumstances" to the airport until it reopens….

The cost of the UK’s new Electronic Travel Authorisation is to rise from £10 to £16. The ETA was brought into force for visitors from over 50 countries in January.

OTHER LEISURE:

Apple is reported by Reuters to be losing more than $1 billion a year on its streaming service. Reuters says that Apple did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling mixed at $1.2928 and €1.1943. Oil higher at $72.25. UK 10 year gilt yield up one basis point at 4.66%. World markets mostly lower yesterday and London forecast to open down marginally as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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