Langton Capital – 2018-06-07 – Rosa’s, labour costs, milk prices, Amazon jobs & the rest:

Rosa’s, labour costs, milk prices, Amazon jobs & the rest:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

You know when you wake up these light morning and it’s not as late as you think, you can have another hour in bed?

Well that didn’t happen to me because, after my eyes flickered open and I checked my phone to see what time it was, a popup said ‘your alarm will sound in less than one minute’ and I had to consider putting sleep to one side, getting out of bed.

But, I thought, there could be 55 seconds in it or more so I shut my eyes and, four or five seconds later, the alarm went off and, after stumbling around a bit and banging my head on the bathroom cabinet, here I am, raring to go.

Anyway, it’s time for the news but if you would like to come off this email list please simply hit the unsubscribe button above. Similarly, if you are getting it forwarded and would like to go on directly or if you would like to recommend it to one of your colleagues, please just hit the subscribe button and/or suggest that your colleague does too.

PUB, RESTAURANT & DRINK PRODUCERS:

• PE house TriSpan has acquired a majority stake in Rosa’s, the Thai restaurant chain. The terms of the deal were not announced.

• Costs rising, particularly labour.

• CV Library has suggested that salary offers in the hospitality and catering sectors have risen by up to 15% this year. The “ongoing uncertainty” in the UK jobs market has led to a shortage in some areas.

• CV Library reports that salaries for initial jobs in the hospitality industry have risen by 9.3% with catering salaries up by 15%. Hospitality firms are said to be ‘ramping up their recruitment efforts as we approach the summer months.’

• Drinks Business reports CV Library as saying ‘it has been predicted that EU workers make up around 13.5% of the hotel and catering workforce and with our recent data revealing that there has been a decline in applications from EU workers post-Brexit, this could spark real issues for employers in the sector.’ CV Library continues ‘what’s more, over half of UK professionals aged 24 and under have said that they are not willing to take on work that EU migrants traditionally do in the UK. With this in mind, it is not surprising to see that applications in the sector have seen a decline in 2017.’

• Moody’s reports that Nomad Foods’ acquisition of Aunt Bessie’s will increase the former’s leverage and integration risks.

• The Imbiba-backed bar and restaurant group, Albion & East, has secured a third site in The Tower building at The Bower in London’s Old Street. The group will be joining Honest Burger, Bone Daddies and Draft House on the ground floor of the building.

• The M&B managed brand, Harvester, has seen a boost in visits according to data from the MCA. M&B had recently converted its poorer performing Harvester sites into Miller & Carter (premium steakhouse concept) sites.

• Dairy farmers supplying Müller are expected to have their milk prices increased by 1.25p per litre from July 1st 2018. Rob Hutchison, Müller’s Milk Supply Director said: ‘Market returns are continuing to improve after a challenging period, and we are pleased to reflect this in higher milk prices’.

• The government is ‘failing pubs’ on business rates, the British Institute of Innkeeping has claimed.

• New research carried out ahead of World Gin Day on 9 June has found that Edinburgh Gin is the most popular brand, closely followed by Hendrick’s, Brockmans and Gordon’s. Commissioned by national events business The Gin Fayre, the study of 500 British adults also revealed that more than three quarters (77%) of people consider gin a primary choice — a trend that has resulted in the number of UK distilleries doubling over the last five years to 315.

• HelloFresh has launched its first retail meal kit in the US, which will see its new range in 581 Giant Food and Stop & Shop stores.

• Coca-Cola will invest $66m into the construction of a new production facility in Ontario, Canada for its dairy brand Fairlife, which will launch in Canada at the end of 2018.

• Mark Derry is to take over from Ian Edward as executive chairman at Brasserie Bar Co.

• Brown-Forman has warned that the escalating US trade war over tariffs could negate the benefits from a strengthening global economy and said the uncertainty was making it difficult to accurately predict future earnings. More than half the group’s sales were from outside the US during the latest fiscal year.

• Amazon s to create 2,500 permanent jobs in the UK in 2018, taking the total UK workforce to 27,500 by the end of the year. The tech giant is adding to its number of software developers, engineers and technicians across the country ‘with all levels of experience’. The company is also expanding its AmazonFresh, Amazon Business, Amazon Fashion, Prime Now, Prime Video, Amazon Music, Amazon Echo products and services, as well as its AWS cloud computing operations which contribute the most to Amazon’s revenue.

• Poundworld could enter administration within days if its owners fail to find a buyer. Poundworld’s founder Chris Edwards is understood to be interested in taking on the business, while US investment firm Flacks Group is still looking to strike a deal.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

• Tourism numbers in the Caribbean are picking up following last year’s hurricanes, according to the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association (CHTA).

• Shearings Leisure Group is changing its name to Specialist Leisure Group to ‘better reflect the breadth, depth and diversity of the group, and to be more relevant to the trade, investment community, as well as current and potential future partnerships’.

• AccorHotels acquires catering management solutions firm Adoria, continuing the firm’s recent spending spree. Founded in France in 2003, Adoria is used by 2,700 organisations and brings together 300,000 active users and more than 800 manufacturers and distributors.

• The Balearic Islands pledge to become 100% green by 2050 with Transport minister Marc Pons is targeting a 40% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and a 100% reduction by 2050. All energy will be derived from renewable sources and a new legal framework for protection of its Posidonia reef.

• Data from JLL shows that more than $11.9bn in US hotel transaction volumes was processed in the first four months of 2018. ‘Going into this year, we were hopeful that the improving economy and strong employment trends would translate to an acceleration in RevPAR,’ said Arthur Adler, Chairman for the JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group. ‘Since March, that is exactly what has happened. Investor sentiment has markedly improved based on the widely held belief that demand will outstrip supply for the foreseeable future resulting in stronger pricing power and solid profit improvement.’

• AccorHotels intends to grow its presence in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, with a focus on luxury properties.

• Chinese firm HNA Group announced Tuesday it will sell a total stake of 26.5% in Spain’s NH Hotels to Thai Minor International, reports Reuters, in two phases.

• Minoan Group’s plans to sell its travel arm are taking longer than expected, according to the firm. However, the company described sales for the six months to April 30 as being ‘comfortably ahead’ of the same time the previous year.

• Andrew Adonis, former transport secretary and labour peer, claims construction on Heathrow’s third runway could start as early as 2021 and by completed by 2025-26

OTHER LEISURE:

• PwC’s latest Global Entertainment & Media (E&M) Outlook forecasts the UK’s sector to be worth £76bn by 2021, growing £8bn over the next four years. This will make the UK the second largest market in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, after Germany.

• Loss-making firm Hornby, whose Scalextric and Airfix brands have been popular alongside its model railways for decades, has secured £18m of new loans.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

• A Reuters poll of housing market specialists has predicted that London house prices will fall this year. Brexit is said to be dampening demand. A 1% fall or so would be the first reduction in 10yrs.

• EU thought likely to retaliate against US tariffs next month.

• Sterling up vs dollar at $1.3432 but unchanged vs Euro at €1.1382

• Oil unchanged at $75.90

• UK 10yr gilt yield up 9bps at 1.38%

• World markets: UK up yesterday. Europe down, US higher & Far East up in Thursday trade.

• Brexit etc.:

o PM to meet senior ministers today to hammer out ‘backstop plan’ on Irish Border. Could involve staying in the Single Market.

o David Davis said to be considering resignation if Theresa May softens stance re leaving the Single Market

o Labour has said that it wishes to secure ‘full access’ to the Single Market.

o Brexit legislation comes back to Commons on 12 June.

o Times reports 39 tax projects have been put on hold & government could be ‘losing billions’

o FT reports European Court of Justice is considering whether Britons can keep their EU citizenship after Brexit

o BBC reports recruitment agencies warning they can’t secure workers needed by British farmers to pick their fruit and vegetables.

o Sky reports roaming charges could come back in Europe for British consumers after Brexit

o UK car industry said to be believe that cars assembled in UK but more than 50% manufactured in EU could get under the wire if tariffs are imposed by both sides post Brexit

FOOTBALL STICKERS:

• And now to the important business. With the pain of four years ago neatly tucked away and ignored the Langton Team’s latest investment is developing very well, but is in need of a little help. The world cup is just around the corner and we have begun the four yearly ritual of completely a panini world cup sticker book and have exactly 52 duplicates up for grabs. So get in touch if you think there could be business to be done (but no more Pogbas we already have 3!). List of swappable cards by request.

PRIOR DAY LATER TWEETS:

• Later tweets: Marston’s visit to new build pubs, lodge, confirms group is laying down solid foundations for growth – www.langtoncapital.co.uk

• Barclaycard has consumer spending +5.1% last month. Services PMI also good, what’s to worry about??

• Evolution continues. McDonald’s adds self-order kiosks to 1k stores per quarter for next 2yrs. No time to stand still…

• Will coffee shops will pay more attention to coffee, cocoa & sugar prices (falling) or milk prices (rising)? Shrewd idea it will be the latter

START THE DAY WITH A SONG:

Yesterday’s song was Pure by The Lightning Seeds. Today, who sang:

I can’t stand this indecision,

Married with a lack of vision

RETAIL NEWS WITH NICK BUBB:

• Homebase Watch: The Wesfarmers Strategy Day down in Australia began with an overview of the decision to sell the heavily loss-making Homebase/Bunnings UK and the “many learnings from the acquisition”: a) Elements of management assumptions & plans too optimistic, b) Poor execution post-acquisition, c) Underestimated importance of local management and d) Deterioration in UK retail market. Completion of the deal with Hilco is expected by 30 June 2018

• Joules; Ahead of today’s pre-close trading update, the Joules share price was one of the few to drop back in a buoyant sector yesterday, but the news is fine, with the overall message that as a result of the group’s 18% revenue growth for y/e May, improved gross margin and disciplined cost management, “the Board anticipates reporting that the underlying profit before tax for the period will be marginally ahead of analyst’s expectations” (of £12.6m). Colin Porter, the CEO, commented: “This performance is testament to the strength and appeal of the Joules brand and our distinctive products which continue to resonate with our growing and highly engaged customer base”.

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