Langton Capital – 2019-10-24 – Hawksmoor, C&C, Pat Val, Thomas Cook etc.:
Hawksmoor, C&C, Pat Val, Thomas Cook etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Bit rushed this morning but just a note on 21st century Pavlov’s dogs reactions; how do you feel when the battery light on your laptop starts flashing and you’ve left your charger at home? Yes, I know. Had better rush. On to the news: LANGTON PREMIUM EMAIL: For the remainder of October, we’d be delighted to send a number of past Premium Emails to those subscribing to the service. We’ve written extensively recently on a number of topics including Pizza Express etc. A short list is included below Forthcoming Announcements below: Corporate Offer: Premium email just £295 (plus VAT) for a single subscriber or £495 (plus VAT) for multiple subscribers. Drop us a line to get involved. Retail Offer: Easy in, easy out. £30 per month (inclusive of VAT, £25 net) via PayPal. Email us for details or check here. ADVERTISE WITH US: Langton’s free email now carries adverts. See front page of website for today’s copy & contact us for further details. TECHNICAL POINT: Our bulk email distributor uses a variety of different IP addresses. This can lead to email getting blocked. If the email doesn’t arrive, please let us know. The current day’s effort is always available on the website. PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS: Underdog, which trades as the Hawksmoor chain of steak restaurants, has reported numbers to December to Companies’ House. 24 Oct 2019: See Premium Email. GENERAL NEWS – PUBS & RESTAURANTS: • C&C reports H1 numbers to end-August saying revenues rose 13.5% to €874.9m with adjusted EBITDA up 8% at €71.5m. • C&C reports adjusted diluted EPS up by 5.8% at 16.3c with a H1 dividend per share of 5.5c announced. The group has reduced net debt from €344m to €255m. • C&C CEO Stephen Glancey reports ‘we are pleased with the progress of the business over the first half of the financial year with revenue growth of +13.5% and operating profits ahead by +9.2%.’ • Mr Glancey continues ‘last year was exceptional with a World Cup and a hot summer boosting demand. Despite challenging year-on-year comparatives we have delivered a resilient revenue performance in our core brands.’ He says ‘despite the economic uncertainties linked to macro and political issues, current trading is in line with expectations.’ • C&C concludes ‘we remain on track to deliver double digit EPS growth in FY2020 and on our steady state forward earnings targets. We have significant balance sheet strength to support our targeted growth range.’ • KPMG has shown that there are at least some winners coming out of the Pat Val fraud, dishonesty and incompetence debacle as the accountants have netted some £2.3m for work carried out on winding down the company after shareholders lost all their money and many employees lost their jobs. • Partners at KPMG charge themselves out at £875 per hour. KPMG has said that it should not be involved in any moves to sue Pat Val or its former directors due to a ‘conflict of interest’. • Patisserie Valerie is now to be liquidated. The FT reports that ‘creditors to the failed chain, which include its former chairman Luke Johnson and HM Revenue & Customs, have so far received none of the money they are owed.’ Mr Johnson, who has resumed his business advice column in the Sunday Times, is to benefit from the sale of Elegant Hotels to Marriott. There is also a suggestion that the sale of Bread Holdings (the owner of Gail’s bakery shops) is to be revived. See our comments in earlier Premium Email as to the potential valuation. • From the ashes. KPMG is to be paid, which leaves the largest ‘asset’ left in the company the nascent legal action against Grant Thornton. The FT reports that FRP, which has been hired by creditors to pursue claims will ‘consider whether to launch legal action against Patisserie Valerie’s former directors, officers and advisers.’ Former chairman Luke Johnson is amongst the creditors. The advisors will have to keep an eye on potential conflicts of interest there. The company has suggested that the misrepresentation of its figures went back prior to the group’s IPO, at which a number of shareholders and directors took tens of millions of pounds from incoming shareholders. The SFO and accountancy bodies are still investigating the situation. • Rosa’s Thai Café is due to open in open Spinningfields, Manchester. It is taking a site vacated by Handmade Burger Company. • Shares in Beyond Meat have recently been targeted by short sellers in the US. • The BRC has said that 85,000 jobs have been lost on the High Street over the last year. It is calling upon the government to overhaul the system of business rates and the apprenticeship levy. • Fuller, Smith & Turner has acquired the seven site strong Cotswolds Inns & Hotels Ltd in a deal valued at £40m. Fuller’s Chief Executive Simon Emeny commented: ‘The inns and hotels being acquired are all iconic, character properties in sought-after locations in the Cotswolds. They will further enhance our existing portfolio of premium hotel accommodation, adding 201 stylish bedrooms’. • Sky’s ‘state of the nation’ poll has found that ‘more than a third of voters are deeply pessimistic about the economy and their own finances.’ This may be influenced by their view of Brexit but it is worth noting that only 11% of respondents thought their financial position would actually improve in the next 12mths. • Whitbread Tuesday said that business confidence had impacted business bookings fairly rapidly. It said that consumer confidence had held up better but added that there were signs of it coming under downward pressure. • Sky says 59% of respondents believe that the general economic situation in the UK has changed for the worse in the last 12 months, against just 13% who say it has got better. • Wet sales have recently been outperforming food sales. This may continue for some time, particularly if consumers retrench somewhat. Wet sales also generate higher margins (less labour involved), thus providing operators with something of a hedge against rising wage costs. • Yo! Sushi is trialing an express format restaurant that will target customers on the go. • William Grant & Sons has released its UK market report finding that 64% of UK consumers agree it is ‘extremely important’ to seek trust and transparency from brands. • Lidl is launching a two-day wine pop-up blind tasting in London, Manchester and Glasgow next month. The test will comprise of eight bottles and will and aims to ‘put snobbery aside’ as consumers judge wines. • John Colley, the new boss at Majestic has told Drinks Business that the group aims to get back to what it does best by backing classic wines. The group’s new range will feature many household favourites, with Mr. Colley stating: ‘“These are things our customers like and our colleagues like, so I think we’ll be well positioned going forward’. • Browning West has built up a 5.33% stake in Domino’s Pizza, worth £70m. The move could lead to demands for a major change of direction at Domino’s and will be another major blow for boss David Wild. • Oakman Inns launches Ashmore Inns, a new trading division responsible for managing pubs which are part of family estates. • Impossible Foods has filed an application with the European Food Safety Authority to bring its plant-based burgers to Europe. • Project Cafe USA 2020, Allegra World Coffee Portal’s market report on US coffee shop segment has found that the market grew by 3.3% to $47.5bn, reaching a total of 37274 outlets. • The Project Cafe USA 2020 report commented that Starbucks remains the largest coffee chain in the US, with a 40% share of the total coffee shop market with 14,875 outlets and adding 585 net new stores over the last 12 months. • In the US, Amazon Counter’s will expand to reach thousands more locations after a launching in 100 Rite Aid locations this summer. Amazon Counter is the online retailer’s in-store pickup option. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: • TUI shares yesterday recovered a little of the ground that they lost on Tuesday when the market reacted to broker suggestions that the company would struggle to make estimates. Analysts suggested that the fall out from the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max would continue to weigh on earnings. • This is likely the case but, in the short term, the impact could be outweighed by first the benefit to margin seen after the demise of Thomas Cook but secondly also perhaps the impact of the substantial capacity that is being put onto the market for next year in the anticipation of higher demand. • When tour operators put on capacity, they will shift it. Even if it means discounting. • EasyHotel yesterday said that it had signed a 20-year exclusive franchise agreement to develop three hotels in Tel Aviv with a total of 667 rooms to open by late 2022.’ CEO Guy Parsons said he was ‘pleased to report further progress against our strategy as we continue to expand our network of super budget hotels in city-centre locations, both in the UK and across international markets.’ • Following the collapse of Thomas Cook, Virgin Atlantic plans to make Manchester airport a network hub for the airline. More and more and more capacity going back on. • Diana Holland, assistant general secretary of Unite, told the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy select committee that Thomas Cook’s failure ‘ensured’ the loss of 4,000 jobs. • STR reports European hotel occupancy up 0.6% yoy to 79.1% in Q3, with ADR up 1.1% to €121.36 and RevPAR up 1.7% to €95.95. • Hilton Worldwide has reported Q3 numbers saying that it earned an adjusted 113c in Q3, up 13% on the same quarter last year. Hilton reports that system-wide REVPAR rose by 0.4% with the development pipeline rising to 379k rooms. • Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta reports ‘despite the overall slowing macro environment, we are pleased to deliver strong bottom-line results for the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was towards the high end of guidance and diluted EPS, adjusted for special items, exceeded our expectations, driven by strong net unit growth. Additionally, we continue to achieve market share gains across all brands and regions year to date.’ • The Epicurean Club has commissioned a survey by YouGov that suggests that UK tourism industry will receive a boost from holidaying Brits as a result of Brexit travel concerns. • The poll suggests some 41% of people will be more likely to consider a holiday in the UK post-Brexit. Only 19% say that Brexit will not affect their thoughts on travel. • Eurostar broke monthly and quarterly records in the quarter to end-September with a 4% increase in traffic numbers to 3.1m passengers. More than 8.4m passengers have travelled through the Channel Tunnel in the first 9mths of this year. • Jet2.com and Jet2CityBreaks’ winter 2020 programme will feature 22% more direct flights to New York, offering 6,000 seats to the American city. More evidence that capacity is coming back into the market. • Jet2holidays data suggests an increasing proportion of UK consumers are opting for more flexible package holidays outside the traditional seven to 14-night duration. The number of bookings for between 8-13 nights has risen to 24% compared to just 15% a decade ago. • HMRC will probe Airbnb over its tax payments, which may lead to legal proceedings. • Manny Fontenla-Novoa, a former boss of Thomas Cook between 2003 to 2011, has denied saddling the firm with a debt pile that ultimately killed the business. Mr Fontenla-Novoa said the cost of servicing the Thomas Cook debt pile was ‘manageable’ during his time in charge but the company’s position was complicated by events, including the 2008 financial crisis. • Hays Travel purchased Thomas Cook’s 555 shops for just over £6m, according to the latest hearing of the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee today. • The London Electric Vehicle Company’s (LEVC) 2,450 licensed hybrid-electric cabs in the capital are set to be joined by ‘The Dynamo’ – a fully-electric taxi converted from a Nissan electric van in a Coventry factory. The mayor has hailed Dynamo’s launch for helping clean up the capital’s polluted air. OTHER LEISURE: • Tesla shares bounced sharply yesterday to rise to their highest levels since February as the group told investors that it made a profit of $143m for the three months to 30 September. FINANCE & ECONOMICS: • Sterling higher at $1.2916 and €1.1597. Oil up at $60.90. UK 10yr gilt yield down 3bps at 0.68%. World markets higher yesterday, Far East up today. • Brexit & politics: o PM Boris Johnson met with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn yesterday in the wake of the Commons’ rejection of Mr Johnson’s proposed Brexit timetable. o No10 is said to be still considering its response after its latest defeat. Noises from Europe suggest that the offer of a delay will be forthcoming. o Ireland’s foreign minister has said that a flexible extension may be the most appropriate next step. o Richard Branson has again backed a second Brexit referendum saying that such a poll would lead to the UK staying in the European Union. o PM Johnson may go for an election via a one-line General Election Bill, which would only need majority (rather than the two thirds majority needed under the Fixed Term Parliament Act. o However, his Bill could be amended, for example to give the vote to 16-18 year olds. START THE DAY WITH A SONG: Yesterday’s song was Heroes by David Bowie. Today, who sang: “Can I take you to a restaurant That’s got glass tables You can watch yourself While you are eating.” RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • Shoe Zone: The discount footwear retailer Shoe Zone warned at the end of August that the second half of its financial year (the 53 weeks to Oct 5th) had been challenging, but today’s pre-close update flags that the overall outcome has been no worse than it expected and that its new so-called “Big Box” stores are trading well. There is no mention of “the weather”, but the autumnal conditions of late must have been good for business: Anthony Smith, the new Chief Executive, says “Shoe Zone has ended this difficult year in line with our revised expectations. It is early days in the new financial year but we have been encouraged by the performance so far”. • Sports Direct: The extraordinary statement from Sports Direct at 7am yesterday morning about its silly feud with the beleaguered Goals Soccer Centres wasn’t the only announcement the company made during the day, as it put out a one-line statement at 3pm to say that it had at last appointed new auditors, in the form of RSM (the mid-tier accountants best known as co-sponsors of the monthly Peach Tracker survey of pub and restaurant sales). Given the fuss there’s been about the fact that none of the big accountants wanted to touch the company with a bargepole, as the saying goes, you’d have thought that #MadMike would have wanted to say a few words about how he looked forward to working with the new auditors on improving corporate governance and shareholder value etc etc, but, unaccountably, he declined the opportunity… • Next: We flagged yesterday that John Lewis and others have driven better sales in October through a big step-up in discounting, but Next don’t play that game, so it’s possible that Next may have missed out a bit, notwithstanding the help from more autumnal weather. Fortunately, ahead of the Q3 update next Wednesday, Next softened the market up for weak sales in this period, when it reported the interims on Sept 19th. And we spotted in the latest monthly review of fashion retailer’s marketing and merchandising by the pricing experts Retailmap that Next has not been sitting on its hands in the meantime, as it is now selling Adidas branded sportswear in its stores and is also actively promoting instore its “click and collect” service for Amazon. • News Flow This Week: The Amazon Q3 is out in the US tonight, whilst the CBI Distributive Trades survey for “October” is published tomorrow morning. TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS: Upcoming results are set out below: • 24 Oct 19 C&C H1 numbers • 30 Oct 19 Royal Caribbean Q3 numbers • 31 Oct 19 Carlsberg Q3 update • 5 Nov 19 Marriott Q3 numbers • 6 Nov 19 Sajid Javid’s maiden Budget • Est 7 Nov 19 JD Wetherspoon H1 update • 7 Nov 19 Bank of England MPC interest rate decision • 12 Nov 19 G4M H1 numbers • 13 Nov 19 Coca Cola HBC Q3 update • 14 Nov 19 Young & Co H1 numbers • 20 Nov 19 SSP FY numbers • 21 Nov 19 William Hill Q3 update • 21 Nov 19 DART Group H1 numbers • 21 Nov 19 Hotel Chocolat AGM • 27 Nov 19 Marston’s FY numbers • 27 Nov 19 Britvic FY numbers • 27 Nov 19 On the Beach FY numbers • 28 Nov 19 Greene King H1 numbers • 4 Dec 19 Loungers H1 numbers • 4 Dec 19 Stock Spirits FY numbers • Est 6 Dec 19 EasyHotel FY numbers • 12 Dec 19 TUI Group FY numbers • Est 12 Dec 19 Fulham Shore H1 numbers • 12 Dec 19 Fuller’s H1 numbers • 12 Dec 19 Vianet H1 numbers • 13 Dec 19 Hollywood Bowl FY numbers • 19 Dec 19 Bank of England MPC interest rate decision LANGTON CAPITAL: Made in Hull. Like all the best things. Langton Capital is a financial advisory company providing insightful views on the UK and global leisure industry and the wider consumer sector in general. Subscription to the daily email is free. Unsubscribing is painless. We provide daily off the shelf and bespoke research. We have helped with transactions, fund-raisings, disposals and other corporate issues. We have a good ear, we are impartial, independent and not half bad at what we do. If you think that we could help you or your business, drop us a line. RECENT PREMIUM EMAIL ARTICLES: • PIZZA EXPRESS REPORTS H1 NUMBERS: Pizza Express has reported H1 numbers and has pointed to tough market conditions as the reason behind a fall in EBITDA. 29 Aug 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: THE HONEST TRUTH ABOUT DISHONESTY – DAN ARIELY: Virtually everyone is capable of being dishonest. But what determines the level of dishonesty that we find acceptable? 30 Aug 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: THE HONEST TRUTH ABOUT DISHONESTY contd – DAN ARIELY: Mr Ariely suggests people will be ‘dishonest’ to the point that they begin to feel negatively about themsleves. 2 Sept 2019: • RESTAURANT GROUP FULL YEAR NUMBERS: More write-downs. Leisure still struggling. Wagamama good & integration on track. Numbers ‘broadly’ in line. No details on IFRS16. 3 Sept 2019: • RESTAURANT GROUP H1 NUMBERS – Analysts’ Meeting: RTN yesterday hosted a meeting for analysts at which it outlined which of its businesses were performing well. And which weren’t. 4 Sept 2019: • LIKE FOR LIKES. DO THEY TELL THE WHOLE STORY? Well clearly there’s more to life than increasing sales from the same unit. You could make more profit, open more units or generate oodles of cash, for example. 5 Sept 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: THINKING FAST & SLOW. DANIEL KAHNEMAN. Daniel Kahneman is a psychologist famous for his work on decision making. He won the Nobel prize for economics in 2002. We’re just scratching the surface here & will run a bit more on Monday. 6 Sept 2019: • AUGUST TRACKER: UK’s pubs & restaurants increase LfL sales by 1.6% in August and ‘maintain summer momentum’. 9 Sept 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: THINKING FAST & SLOW. DANIEL KAHNEMAN. Nobel Prize winning Psychologist Daniel Kahneman is famous for his work on decision making. 10 Sept 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS: Honest Burger has reported full year numbers to Companies’ House. 11 Sept 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: THINKING FAST & SLOW – DANIEL KAHNEMAN: More crumbs from the great man’s table. We’ll make this the last piece on this rather heavy but ground-breaking book. 12 Sept 2019: • JD WETHERSPOON – FULL YEAR NUMBERS: Group reports LfL sales in the year +6.8%. Margins lower. Outlook ‘reasonable’. 13 Sept 2019: • JD WETHERSPOON – ANALYSTS’ MEETING FOLLOWING RELEASE OF FULL YEAR NUMBERS: LfL sales higher, overall revenues up but margin, profits and earnings down. Outlook said to be ‘reasonable’. 16 Sept 2019: • CABANA ADMINISTRATION. ADMINISTRATOR’S PROPOSALS ETC.: KPMG at least touches on what went wrong, what was lost financially, who took which assets & what (if anything) is left over for creditors etc. 17 Sept 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY ACCOUNTS: CROWD FUNDER SEEDRS REPORTS TO DEC 2018 AS LOSSES CONTINUE: Seedrs is one of the largest crowd-funding platforms. It is disrupting the market but losses are accumulating. 18 Sept 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: BLACK SWAN – Nassim Nicholas Taleb. One of the most influential financial books of the millennium to date, Black Swan has redefined the approach to risk. 19 Sept 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: BLACK SWAN (part II) – Written in 2007, author & investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb shone a new light on risk.20 Sept 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY ACCOUNTS: Social Entertainment Ventures Ltd trades as Flight Club and Bounce in the UK & the US. It reports here numbers to 30 September. 23 Sept 2019: • ESPORTS – A NEW AREA OF GROWTH OR A LICENSE TO LOSE MONEY? Or, perhaps the one in the short term and the other in the long. 24 Sept 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS – ITSU: Itsu, created by Pret a Manger founder Julian Metcalfe, has reported numbers to 27 Dec 2018. 25 Sept 2019: • MITCHELLS & BUTLERS FULL YEAR TRADING: M&B has updated on full year trading. It will report numbers late November. 26 Sept 2019: • TO SEE OURSELVES AS OTHERS SEE US: A brief look at the casual dining, pubs & bars market from the perspective of the landlord. 26 Sept 2019: • TAKING GIG-ECONOMY WORKERS ONTO THE BOOKS: Moves afoot in California suggest that gig workers could be treated like standard employees, 30 Sept 2019: • BOOK REVIEW: FREAKONOMICS BY STEVEN LEVITT: This quirky book made an impact when it was released in 2005. 1 Oct 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS: Companies need to put their accounts in within 9mths of their year ends. 2 Oct 2019: • QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS: Sometimes it pays to looks at our industry, any industry, with a fresh eye. 3 Oct 2019: • ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF INCOME: When or if the going gets tough, it’s a good idea to look for other sources of income. 4 Oct 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS. Several companies are reporting figures to end-Dec 2018 to Companies’ House & here we look at Welcome Break. 7 Oct 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS – MOD PIZZA: Pizza company Mod Pizza UK Ltd, which operates the brand in this country, has reported results to end-Dec 2018 to Companies’ House. 8 Oct 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS – PAPA JOHN’S GB LIMITED: Papa John’s GB has reported numbers to 30 Dec. 9 Oct 2019: • PRIVATE COMPANY RESULTS – CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL UK: Chipotle UK has reported numbers to 31 Dec. 10 Oct 2019: • CORPORATE FAILURE: SORTING THE SYMPTOMS FROM DISEASE. NEVER EASY, OFTEN IMPOSSIBLE: It’s never this simple but go at it. 11 Oct 2019: • COFFER PEACH TRACKER: The latest Tracker, for the month of September, suggests that LfL sales grew by 1.2% in the month. 14 Oct 2019: • DELIVEROO – A CLOSER LOOK AT ITS DECEMBER 2018 NUMBERS: Deliveroo issued a Press Release outlining the main points in its FY2018 accounts on 2 October. 15 Oct 2019: • Part I (of II) on MEXICAN RESTAURANTS: 16 Oct 2019: • DELIVERY: The recent boycott of Wagamama outlets in Bristol by Deliveroo riders illustrates that, the more moving parts there are in a process, there more there is that can go wrong. 18 Oct 2019: • ATTEMPTING TO SELL ASSETS: Sky has reported that entrepreneur Luke Johnson is investigating options regarding selling all or part of Bread Holdings, the owner of the Gail’s bakery shops. 21 Oct 2019: |
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