Freedom Day, Recovery Monitor, footfall, facemasks, staycations etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

With the weather turning better, it’s a tempting thought, indeed it’s an almost irresistible urge, to take your work outside and get a bit of it done al fresco.

Which is what we’ve found ourselves doing recently.

But I’d forgotten just what a task it can be because, first, you have to clean the bird poo and whatever gunk drips off trees from your chair and table & then bring everything outside.

And it’s at this point that you find the battery’s nearly flat on your laptop, that the wires are never long enough, that the extension lead is in the shed and that the key to said outhouse snapped off in the lock a few days ago.

With the door locked rather than unlocked, of course but, without too much violence, you can effect entry, boot up your laptop, bring out your sunhat, sunglasses, bottle of water, pens, pencils, papers etc then locate the parasol, attend to the spiders, bird poo and gunk that are attached thereto and get the show on the road.

At which point it will either start to rain or the wind will pick up and scatter your papers far and wide, a larger than equitable number of which will end up in the pond.

Anyway, rather sun than no sun. on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

19 July reopening forecasts:

• CGA & Alix Partners have suggested that ‘nearly 12,000 hospitality venues could finally open on ‘Freedom Day’’. But, it says, ‘challenges remain for the sector.’ The latest Market Recovery Monitor research also says that permanent closures ran at an annualised rate of 25 units per day across the last 12 months.

• The research suggests that ‘while just under 89% of all known UK hospitality venues were open by the end of June 2021, 11,928 sites have yet to reopen and the hope is that many of these will do so on the 19 July.’ The Recovery Monitor maintains that ‘the lifting of remaining restrictions is significant for the late night-market, which is one of the last remaining hospitality sectors to have been given the go-ahead to reopen. Sports and social clubs are also set to benefit, having been hard hit by social distancing requirements.’ It says ‘31.2% of large and late-night venues and more than one fifth (22.9%) of sports and social clubs were still closed as of the end of June 2021.’ Some 11,092 independent  licensed premises remained shut as of the end of June.’

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Unit closures:

• The Recovery Monitor says ‘we have lost 25 hospitality venues per day since June 2020’ and it adds ‘significant challenges lie ahead.’ It says there are around 106,000 licensed premises in the UK at the moment, down from around 115,000 in June 2020. Getting a clear read on these numbers must be difficult as all units were required to be shut a year ago and not all are allowed (or able) to open now. CGA says ‘this equates to an 8% contraction of the market in just 12 months.’

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Other Covid news:

• UKH has ‘warmly welcomed the launch of a new Hospitality Strategy as recognition of the unique and valuable contribution the sector’s pubs, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs and other venues make to the UK’s economic and social wellbeing.’ It says focusing on reopening, recovery and resilience makes sense but points out that ‘hospitality has been the hardest hit during the crisis, suffering the permanent closure of nearly 10,000 licensed premises and losing more than £87bn in sales, leaving businesses deeply in debt and at risk of a long road to recovery.’

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• News that Scotland will move to level zero from Monday, 19th July has received a mixed reaction from the trade north of the border. Scottish Licensed Trade Association managing director, Colin Wilkinson, said it was a ‘relief to have some clarity’ but says that issues remain to be faced. Units will be allowed to open until midnight but the one metre distancing requirement remains in place. The SBPA says the midnight curfew ‘is hugely disappointing and will exacerbate the financial difficulty many hospitality businesses find themselves in’.

• The Centre for Cities has reported that the recovery in footfall in a number of cities is faltering. It says footfall dropped in June across the UK. It says ‘much discussion in the lead up to restrictions being lifted was about the amount of pent up demand that lockdowns had created, and the likely splurge in spending as a result. But while there was an initial jump, the data suggests this may have faltered.’ It says ‘the weather and growing COVID-19 cases may be reasons for this, but with the end of the furlough scheme is in sight, high street businesses and workers will be hoping that the removal of restrictions on 19th July will help to sustain the high street’s recovery and bring more people back to the centre of our cities.’

• More firms have hit out against the lack of guidance re facemasks. Transport rules are said to be a ‘mess’ and retailers are being left to themselves to decide whether or not to require face coverings to be worn. Sainsbury’s has said it would require them and Tesco & ASDA have followed suit. They seem to be saying they would like them to be worn but add that they won’t do anything about it if they are not.

• The Express says that amber list flip-flopping and lack of consistency should provide a boost to staycations. Hard to disagree with that.

• The British Business Bank reports that 1.67m UK businesses have taken out government-backed loans totalling £79.3bn. The construction (17%) and wholesale and retail (15%) sectors topped the list in terms of loans by value.

• Union Unite says that UK factories may be forced to close down if isolation warnings continue at their current pace. This may be true as factory work can’t be done from home. But nor can hospitality work and, as the hospitality workforce is almost certainly younger than that employed in factories, this is an even more acute problem for our sector. Having said this, Nissan in Sunderland has indicated that it currently has staffing problems.

• The R rate: The NIESR reports that the R rate continues to vary across the UK. It remains above 1.0 in all UK regions except Scotland. It says ‘the North West is now showing strong signs of approaching the peak in cases, with many local authorities already past their peaks. Similar patterns are likely to emerge nationwide albeit with a time lag.’

Returning to work:

• This is of much more than academic interest to a large number of companies including city-centre sandwich and coffee shops, cafes, city centre bars and operators with sites in or near commuter hubs. The Institute of Directors says that government comment recently has featured a number of “mixed messages” and “rather obvious statements.” It says employers may be incentivised by existing laws, such as the requirement to put in place ‘sufficient control measures’ to ensure safety, to err on the side of caution when it comes to demanding face coverings or even when it comes to asking workers to come back to the office or not.

Company & other news:

• The government’s National Food Strategy, which was drawn up independently by Leon’s Henry Dimbleby, will include the recommendation that a £3bn levy on sugar and salt should be considered as a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to do something about obesity (and help tackle climate change). This is not yet government policy.

• Soho House’s parent company, Membership Collective Group, has raised $420m via an IPO in the US. The price was at the lower end of expectations and the group is valued at around $2.8bn. Founder Nick Jones says ‘this move will enable us to accelerate our investment in improving both the physical and digital elements of your membership.’

• Five Guys is to launch a new flagship site in London on Bishopsgate.

• Smirnoff has launched a new pink vodka, Smirnoff Raspberry Crush, in the UK.

• In the premium email. More on pinging, Covid passports. M&B board changes, ARC Inspirations, small company debt & other.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS:

• Advantage Travel Partnership has said that government flip-flopping on destinations has left it and its customers ‘yet again looking down the barrel of the worst groundhog day ever.’

• TTG reports Travel Network Group as saying the decision to move the Balearic Islands from the green watchlist to the amber list highlighted the reality for the travel industry that summer would be “on a much smaller scale” compared with pre-Covid years. ABTA said the move was a “step back for the travel industry.”

• Travel Counsellors reports that Spain has continued to be the most-booked destination on its platform.

• The Business Travel Association points out the awkward fact that ‘the majority of additions to the green list will not accept entrants from the UK. This lack of international protocols make any changes irrelevant for British business travellers.’ It says ‘there must be a global approach in international standards for travel. Until such protocols exist, the travel sector remains in lockdown and must be supported.’ It concludes ‘next week’s Freedom Day will be another day in handcuffs for our industry.’

• Mask wearing remains a confused space. Tube trains will require them, as will airlines and Heathrow. Train operators may not but, between writing these words and you reading them, everything may have changed (again).

• Intercontinental Hotels premium collection brand, voco Hotels, has opened its very first hotel in the Netherlands, voco, in den Haag.

• TTG reports that South Wales-based travel firm Sam Smith Travel has ceased trading as an Atol holder according to the CAA.

• STR reports that US hotel occupancy improved week over week in the week to 10 July with achieved daily rate now ‘the highest on record’. Occupancy was 67.2% (down 9.3% on 2019) and REVPAR was $93.99 (down 4.4% on 2019).

• Hotel News Now reports that, in the US, although corporate and international guest numbers are soft, transient business, mostly leisure, is strong.

OTHER LEISURE:

• The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport committee inquiry into the music industry has concluded that music streaming needs a “complete reset.” The committee thinks that streaming has channelled money to record labels and away from performers.

SOME OF YESTERDAY TWEETS (WITH INTROS):

Amber list flip-flopping must help staycations. Rents also a feature, with landlords and tenants disagreeing as to who should flash the cash in order to clear the impasse. Comment on inflation. Temporary? You really think so?

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UPCOMING NEWS:

This week:

• DP Poland updated on Tuesday and it hosted a webinar. Vianet had its AGM & trading update and Pepsi reported on Q2 in the afternoon.

• DP Eurasia updated on H1 on Wednesday and Just Eat updated on Q2 trading on Thursday.

Next week is busier.

• 19 Jul 21 is ‘freedom’ day – although it’s not called that anymore. Tuesday sees Young & Company host its AGM. Tuesday we have full year numbers from Loungers and H1 figures from Nichols. Wednesday brings Britvic’s Q3 update and Thursday sees Premier Foods host its AGM and update on Q1 trading.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

• The rate of unemployment in the UK fell to 4.8% in the three months to May, down from 5.0% in the three months to February.

• The number of job vacancies in the three months to June exceeded that recorded prior to the pandemic. The ONS says ‘the labour market is continuing to recover, with the number of employees on payroll up again strongly in June.’ It says this ‘is still over 200,000 down on pre-pandemic levels, while a large number of workers remain on furlough.’

• The ONS reports that it believes underlying wage growth, excluding distortions caused by Covid, was between 3.9% and 5.1% for average weekly earnings. For average earnings excluding bonuses it was between 3.2% and 4.4%. Those are pretty wide ranges.

• The NIESR comments on average earnings saying they ‘are predicted to accelerate 8.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2021, easing to 5.4 per cent in the third quarter, because of compositional and base effects.’ It adds ‘underlying wage growth which excludes base and compositional effects increased to 3.8 per cent in the three months to May.’

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RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:

Upcoming results are set out below:

• 13 Jul 21 Pepsi Q2 numbers

• 13 Jul 21 DP Poland Q2 update & presentation

• 14 Jul 21 DP Eurasia H1 trading update

• 15 Jul 21 Just Eat Takeaway H1 trading update

• 20 Jul 21 Young & Co AGM

• 21 Jul 21 Loungers FY numbers

• 21 Jul 21 Nichols H1 numbers

• 22 Jul 21 Britvic Q3 update

• 23 Jul 21 Premier Foods AGM & Q1 update

• 27 Jul 21 Campari H1 numbers

• 27 Jul 21 Games Workshop FY numbers

• 27 Jul 21 Starbucks Q3 numbers

• 28 Jul 21 Marston’s Q3 trading update

• 29 Jul 21 Molson Coors Q2 numbers

• 29 Jul 21 YUM Q2 numbers

• 29 Jul 21 Texas Roadhouse Q2 numbers

• 30 Jul 21 DPP AGM

• 3 Aug 21 Domino’s Pizza H1 numbers

• 5 Aug 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

• 10 Aug 21 Intercontinental Hotels H1 numbers

• 11 Aug 21 Deliveroo H1 numbers

• 11 Aug 21 Hostelworld H1 numbers

• 12 Aug 21 TUI Q3 numbers

• 18 Aug 21 Carlsberg H1 numbers

• 19 Aug 21 Rank FY numbers

• 2 Sept 21 Jet2 AGM

• 22 Sept 21 Ten Entertainment H1 numbers

• 1 Oct 21 JW Wetherspoon

• 22 Oct 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q3 numbers

• 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers

• 24 Nov 21 Britvic FY numbers

• 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers

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