Christmas, new normal, inflation, supply issues, traffic lights & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

A very pleasant weekend just passed but eight degrees and a bit of mist this morning reminds us that autumn is pretty much upon us.

Still, never look a gift horse in the mouth and we should bank the weather while we can.

If cutting the grass one extra time is the price we need to pay, then so be it but elsewhere, when we said Hull City was starting its relegation battle early this year, we had meant it as a joke. However, it would appear that the team took us seriously and, with only five points from eight games, we’re already virtually propping up the table.

On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

KAM has released research covering consumers’ expectations for Christmas and says that one in five UK adults have already begun to prepare.

The new normal for retail sales. The Telegraph quotes Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, as saying that it is already here.

Trading. The BBPA says ‘pubs hoped to serve 18 million pints on National Hospitality Day’, which was this Saturday past.

Shops to use pounds and ounces again as a Brexit opportunity.

Al fresco sales. The Evening Standard reports that landlord Soho Estates is to lead a protest against Westminster Council’s decision not to extend the al fresco scheme in the district.

Tips. New legislation is to ban restaurants from keeping tips intended for staff.

More shops to shut per BRC.

The ONS reports retail sales fell by 0.9% in August, following a 2.8% fall in July.

Labour shortages, wages & inflation:

Sky News reports that the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) plans to allow millions of workers to request flexible working from day one at a new employer.

Pret a Manger gives cafe workers a 5% pay rise despite only just ditching paid breaks and trying to reduce bonuses a few weeks earlier.  Pret’s UK managing director, Clare Clough, said starting pay for store workers would rise to a minimum of £9.40 an hour, up from the legal minimum of £8.91.

Itsu, the Asian-inspired fast food chain created by Julian Metcalfe, is to increase the hourly wage for 1,000 of the lowest-paid workers at its 72 outlets by 11% to a minimum of £10.40 an hour.

Despite gas prices rocketing, business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has said there is no cause for alarm. The Bank of England similarly maintains that inflationary pressures are temporary. Meanwhile, businesses are paying more for their utilities, stock and staff and delivery costs have risen sharply. The VAT rise(s) due shortly will add to the CPI.

Prezzo is reported set to give raise staff pay next month by around 4% and close all of its restaurants on Boxing Day.

Supply issues & stock shortages:

The British Poultry Council (BPC) has warned the industry was heading into a ‘downward spiral towards supply chains seriously struggling’ due to a sudden shortage of carbon dioxide. A sharp rise in global gas prices has meant two large fertiliser plants in Teesside and Cheshire, which produce CO2 as a by-product, have shut.

Lord Frost has opined that Brexit “gloom-mongers” have been proved wrong despite the Food & Drink Federation warning that just in time delivery has been damaged by Brexit and Covid.

CO2 shortages to hit beer, fizzy drinks & frozen food. DEFRA was warned last week of the shortages caused by the closure of two major fertiliser plants this week.

Company & other news:

Sky News reports that Yo! Sushi is this week reportedly set to release detailed financial information to the City ahead of an October float.

Greggs has been accused of using the pandemic to demand rent reductions. That’s pretty much what happens in a market.

The Inn Collection Group saw occupancy rates of 93%, 95% and 98% across the entire estate during June, July and August respectively.

Idris Elba has launched a new London bar, located nearby the Coal Drops Yard at King’s Cross. The bar will feature an outdoor space, a dining room and a bar which can seat up to 70 guests.

Research from Mintel suggests that one in three Britons drink plant-based milk.

PepsiCo will cut back on the use of virgin plastic and expand its SodaStream carbonated-water business to more markets. The food and beverage giant said it was aiming to reduce virgin plastic use per serving by half across all brands by 2030

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS:

Amber list ceases to exist and Turkey removed from the red list. Airlines UK has said the moves should give airlines a “shot in the arm.”

Recovery still some way off. ACI Europe reports that passenger traffic in the European airport network was running in July at around half its pre-Covid levels – and this despite more than doubling over July 2020:

UKinbound will campaign for more government support through the winter.

Iata warns that carriers face increasing ‘downside risks’ with a tightening of restrictions looming globally.

From HotStats, hotels have had to operate on barebones during 2020, with most suspending daily housekeeping at many hotels.

Leaked proposals reveal that Heathrow’s long-haul charges will rocket from £38.33 per traveller this year to £67.86 in 2022. Virgin Atlantic said the increase – along with a rise in other bills – would cost a family of four flying to Florida an additional £200.

OTHER LEISURE:

Manchester United has reported a loss of £92.2m for its last financial year on the back of Covid-19 related closures.

Derby County looks set to go into administration.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Commentators suggest the Bank of England faces a dilemma when it comes to the decision whether (and when) to raise interest rates; should it target inflation or continue to sponsor growth.

The Bank of England reports that the public is preparing for a period of inflation with public expectations up last month to 2.7% from earlier estimates of 2.4%.

Sterling down at $1.3703 and €1.1698. Oil price lower at $74.79. UK 10yr gilt yield up 4bps at 0.85%. World markets lower on Friday and London set to open down by around 23pts as at 7am.

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