M&B, Fuller’s, City Pub Group, Everyman, Playtech, costs & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

The weather out there is very conflicted, isn’t it?

The nights are drawing in and the five or six degrees with mist that we’re facing in the mornings is bringing home the fact that it’s autumn but, during the days recently, it’s been, well, glorious.

Yes, the wind’s getting up and the leaves, at least those on the fruit trees and conker trees, which seem to turn first, are throwing themselves to the floor, but it’s shorts weather and, apart from having to cut the grass again, long may it continue.

However, the spiders know what time of year it is and most of Yorkshire’s arachnids are now living in my house. This leaves a) me unmoved and b) the dog with something to chase and eat but c) my good lady wife and charming daughter alternately shrieking, throwing slippers and imploring me to do something about it.

Which I’m a little bit reluctant to do as these are big b—gers and the last one that I tried to stamp on simply threw me off with a sneer and asked me if that was all I’d got.

Anyway, sunny again today. On to the news:

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MITCHELLS & BUTLERS FULL YEAR TRADING UPDATE:

Mitchells & Butlers has this morning updated on full year trading. It |says that ‘the majority of our estate has been open for trading since 17 May, following the 5 initial weeks from 12 April of outdoor trading only’ and adds ‘in the 18 weeks since full indoor trading reopened on 17 May like-for-like sales have been 97% of pre-Covid levels, following an improvement since the last update in the most recent 8 weeks to 104%.’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Costs rising, delivery issues & supply chain problems. Most will pass costs on to the consumer.

The Q3 Business Confidence Survey from CGA and Fourth highlights the logistical and inflationary impacts of COVID-19 and Brexit. It says that costs are spiking for hospitality businesses ‘as supply chain challenges intensify.’ The survey reports that ‘hospitality businesses face a storm of supply chain problems and rising costs…and three quarters of them are likely to raise prices for consumers as a result.’

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Trading:

The Lumina Intelligence UK Pub & Bar Market Report 2021 shows that 42% of visits to pubs are for drink-only occasions, while almost a quarter (24%) of trips to the on-trade are for dinner.

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Research from Zonal shows that 51% of UK pub and restaurant goers are happy to pay a deposit to book a table, and 55% are in favour of paying no-show fees if they don’t turn up. However, younger consumers are more reluctant than the national average to pay to secure a booking, with only 28% of 18-24-year olds saying they would put down a deposit.

UKHospitality CEO Kate Nicholls has said the pandemic could have been ‘so much worse’ for the sector, despite the industry losing ‘more than two thirds of its normal revenue’

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Food producers have warned that the sharp rise in the price of carbon dioxide will push up food prices despite the government committing taxpayers’ money to bail out producers. Environment secretary George Eustice has told Sky News that the price of the gas may rise four-fold to £1,000 a tonne. Food producers have said this will add to other inflationary pressures to push up prices. The intervention to secure prices has been welcomed by a range of food producer bodies including the British Soft Drinks Association.

Demand:

It’s a strong labour market but Vauxhall is close to cutting jobs at one of its van plants and there is more talk of shortages over Christmas.

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Company & other news:

Fuller, Smith & Turner has updated on trading in a statement that will be read at its AGM later today. The company says ‘since fully reopening the estate in July, the Company has traded at a steadily increasing level across its estate. Managed like for like sales for the seven weeks to 18 September 2021 stand at 86% of 2019 levels, and we look forward to the further benefits of increasing footfall in the City and a continued return to office working.’

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The City Pub Group has reported H1 numbers for the 26wks to 27 June saying that ‘trading [is] on an upward trajectory with sales since the reopening of indoor trading on 17 May at above 90% of 2019 levels, with further improved trade in city centre sites since the beginning of September as return to work gathers pace.’

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Per Sky News, EVCL Chill, a chilled foods distributor whose customers include Asda and Sainsbury’s, is on the brink of collapse. PwC is being lined up as the prospective administrator of EVCL Chill, according to market insiders.

In the US, Yum! Brands has promoted Sabir Sami, 54, to KFC Division CEO. Sami is currently the COO and Managing Director of KFC Asia.

Also in the US, DoorDash prepares to offer alcohol deliveries in 20 US states, delivering from 10,000 retailers, mostly made up of its existing network of restaurants and convenience stores.

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Eat Just’s subsidiary, Good Meat, has raised $97m in funding following a $170m raise in May. New and previously announced investors include UBS O’Connor, Graphene Ventures and K3 Ventures, among others. 

New openings. Franco Manca is to open its newest unit, in London’s Blackheath, shortly. It says ‘we don’t overcomplicate. We don’t overprice. We don’t stuff crusts. We do sourdough pizza, as it should be.’ Dirty Bones is to open a flagship venue in Carnaby’s, Kingly Court on 4th October. Arc Inspirations is to open a New York-themed bar named Manahatta, in Birmingham on Saturday, October 16.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS:

Jet2 is to restart flights to Turkey today. It plans some 70 flights a week to the destination for the late summer season. CEO Steve Heapy says ‘customers have missed being able to visit Turkey this summer, so the reopening of the country has resulted in huge demand and comes just in time for holidaymakers to enjoy some late summer sun.’ He adds ‘we continue to look towards the future with real confidence, as customers make the most of being able to get away and enjoy some much-needed sunshine.’

Transport secretary Grant Shapps has said that the impact of moving countries to the red list must have been “crippling” on the travel industry. He says he hopes that ‘we have moved away from the bad old days where things had to happen very, very quickly.’

The boss of AirBnb claims that the way people travel has been changed forever by the pandemic. The lines between business and leisure travel are increasingly blurring thanks to remote working patterns according to Brian Chesky of AirBnb.

Leading trade figures claim that the removal of the need for pre-departure tests in resorts is ‘the biggest plus point’ of all overseas travel rule changes, according to Travel Weekly.

Uber announced that it could hit one measure of profitability in the third quarter, earlier than expected.

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OTHER LEISURE:

Everyman Media Group has reported H1 numbers saying that it is seeing ‘growing trading momentum; positive outlook with pipeline of committed new sites.’ The group reopened for admissions on 17 May. Everyman reports it has a ‘very strong film slate in Q4 expected to drive further admissions growth.’ Attendance has been running at 80% of pre-covid levels.

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Playtech has reported H1 numbers to end-June.

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Netflix has bought the Roald Dahl Story Company in a deal that will bring films, shows and potentially games to the broadcaster. Netflix already had an agreement in place from 2018 to create a number of television shows, such as another Charlie And The Chocolate Factory reboot with Taika Waititi. 

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England’s MPC meets today to discuss whether the time is right to cut back on stimulus and even, potentially, to begin raising interest rates.

President Joe Biden is reported to have played down the chances of a UK-US trade deal. Trade with the US was worth some $273bn in 2019.

The US Fed says that the US economy is continuing to recover albeit at a slower pace due to the Delta variant of Covid. The Times reports that US Fed is close to raising interest rates.

Sterling mixed at $1.3639 and €1.165. Oil price higher at $76.40. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 0.80%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open up around 39 points as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:

Upcoming results are set out below:

• 15 Sept 21 Restaurant Group H1 numbers

• 16 Sept 21 C&C H1 trading update

• 16 Sept 21 Games Workshop trading update

• 16 Sept 21 ONS real time indicators

• 21 Sept 21 Compass Group full year update

• 21 Sept 21 TUI Group FY trading update

• 22 Sept 21 Ten Entertainment H1 numbers

• 22 Sept 21 SAGA H1 numbers

• 22 Sept 21 Flutter Investor Sportsbet day

• 23 Sept 21 Mitchells & Butlers FY update

• 23 Sept 21 City Pub Group H1 numbers

• 23 Sept 21 Fuller’s H1 AGM & trading update

• 23 Sept 21 Playtech H1 numbers

• 23 Sept 21 Everyman Media H1 numbers

• 23 Sept 21 ONS real time indicators

• 23 Sept 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

• 24 Sept 21 GfK UK Consumer Confidence numbers

• 28 Sept 21 Escape Hunt H1 numbers

• 29 Sept 21 Fulham Shore AGM

• 30 Sept 21 New River investor day

• 1 Oct 21 JW Wetherspoon

• 4 Oct 21 Rank Group AGM

• 5 Oct 21 Gregg’s Q3 update

• 6 Oct 21 Constellation Brands Q2 numbers

• 8 Oct 21 Hollywood Bowl FY update

• 13 Oct 21 Marston’s FY trading update

• 22 Oct 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q3 numbers

• 25 Oct 21 DP Poland H1 numbers

• 27 Oct 21 Chancellor’s Autumn Budget

• 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers

• 28 Oct 21 C&C H1 numbers

• 28 Oct 21 YUM Brands Q3 numbers

• 4 Nov 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

• 16 Nov 21 Premier Foods H1 numbers

• 18 Nov 21 Jet2 H1 numbers

• 23 Nov 21 Compass Group FY numbers

• 24 Nov 21 Britvic FY numbers

• 30 Nov 21 Marston’s FY numbers

• 6 Dec 21 AB InBev investor seminar

• 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers

• 16 Dec 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

LANGTON CAPITAL: Made in Hull. Like all the best things. Langton Capital is a financial advisory company providing insightful views on the UK and global leisure industry and the wider consumer sector in general. Subscription to the daily email is free. Unsubscribing is painless. We provide daily off the shelf and bespoke research. We have helped with transactions, fund-raisings, disposals and other corporate issues. We have a good ear, we are impartial, independent and not half bad at what we do. If you think that we could help you or your business, drop us a line.