Inflation, Nichols, Fulham Shore, Papa John’s, Shake Shack, Airbnb etc:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, the government got itself in a right old tizzy yesterday and the day before.

It seemed determined to prove that you can always make a bad situation worse and, as we all know, if you’ve got a hangover and ‘couldn’t feel worse’, you only need hit your toe with a hammer to prove that isn’t true.

And if your job ‘couldn’t be worse’ try doing it with no trousers on and a traffic cone on your head and, in that vein, Mr Paterson was due to be banned, he was reprieved, then he was likely to be banned again and then, at the end of all that, he quit as an MP in any case.

So, avoiding almost all political commentary yesterday was something of an imperative as it would only have reinforced my view that, Mr Paterson’s alleged wrong-doing and travails aside, there are a number of words that I would like to ban.

‘Clearly’ is one such. And ‘honestly’ falls into the same category of words that are often followed by some verbiage that shows them to be misleading at best and, probably, simply not true at all.

And ‘exponentially’ is getting overused.

Similarly a lot of other adverbs ending in the letters ‘-ly’ such as ‘plainly’ alongside ‘literally’ as well as non-adverbs such as ‘decimate’ that are similarly being misused.

But aaargh, stop with the pedantry, get a life, it’s Friday. So, have a great weekend and let’s get on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Labour:

More signs that the pendulum has swung from concerns regarding unemployment to issues with the sourcing of labour. Official statistics show that only 3% of those workers still on furlough as the scheme came to an end were made permanently redundant. The scheme came to an end at the start of October, with 16% of businesses still actively using it.  

Delivery:

In an interview with Big Hospitality, Amy Heather UK strategic accounts director at Just Eat said ‘Back in 2019 delivery was seen as more of a weekend treat but now it’s all about different day parts. In lockdown we saw people ordering earlier in the day while peak times started to shift.’

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Inflation:

The UN has said that food prices globally have risen to their highest level in over a decade, going up by more than 30% in the last year. It says that disruptions to supplies, high commodity prices, factory closures and political issues are behind the rises. Vegetable oils have risen by 10% in the last month and cereal prices are up by more than 22% compared to a year earlier. Separately, the Bank of England has said that it is sorry that prices are rising. It has previously said that this would be temporary.

COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

Nichols upgrades expectations. Soft drinks producer Nichols has updated on trading saying that ‘full year 2021 profits expected to be ahead of current market expectations.’ It says ‘group revenue for the period was ahead of the Board’s expectations, increasing by 17% year on year to £107m.’

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Fulham Shore’s shares rose around 5% yesterday on the back of its upbeat trading statement and the announcement of its first overseas franchising agreement, in Greece. The Times’s Dominic Walsh tweets that ‘informed sources say that Fulham Shore has now signed heads of terms on a franchise deal for Franco Manca in Switzerland. First site to open in Verbier in January and word is the group is looking for a second site in Montreaux/Lausanne. So that’s Greece and Switzerland sorted…’

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Brand owner Papa John’s International in the US has reported Q3 numbers and registered nine consecutive quarters of growth. North America same-store sales were up 6.9% while international same-store sales were up 8.3%.

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Shake Shack yesterday reported Q3 numbers. The company posted a third-quarter loss of $2.2 million, or 6 cents a share, compared with a loss of $5.6 million, or 15 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. Analysts had been looking for a loss of perhaps 6 cents a share on revenue of $197.5 million. The company says ‘we saw benefits to our urban Shacks as more of our guests returned to offices, events, commuting and tourism-based locations.’ It added ‘our suburban Shacks continue to recover and, on average, perform above 2019 levels.’

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Sun Holdings, one of the largest franchise operators in the US, has acquired 131 Applebee’s units.

Liberty Wines’ annual Wine Report shows that wine sales in the premium on-trade have shown strong recovery despite immense challenges.

Etsy reported Q3 results that exceeded expectations but issued Q4 guidance that fell short of forecasts, ultimately sending the shares down 1% on Wednesday.

EBay projected holiday-quarter revenue below market expectations, showing a tapering in the online sales shopping boom that was driven by the pandemic as customers return to stores. EBay said it expected fourth-quarter revenue between $2.57 billion and $2.62 billion.

John Lewis and M&S have revealed their Christmas ads, 2 weeks earlier than usual. The John Lewis advert is a two-minute tale of a young alien experiencing their first Christmas on Earth. 

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

A report from the World Travel & Tourism Council and McKinsey & Company has found that business travel spend is expected to reach two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

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Iata reports a slight uptick in demand for air travel in September but says traffic ‘remains stalled’. The uptick was reportedly driven by recovery in domestic markets, particularly in China. New figures showed total demand for air travel in September 2021 was down 53.4% compared to September 2019.

Airbnb has reported record Q3 numbers with EBITDA of over $1bn. Founder and CEO Brian Chesky comments ‘the third quarter was Airbnb’s best quarter yet. The pandemic has led to a revolution in how we live, work and travel and we’re constantly innovating to meet this new way of traveling and living.’

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Hyatt has acquired Apple Leisure Group (ALG), a luxury resort-management services, travel and hospitality company, for $2.7bn from KKR and KSL Capital Partners.

Yotel is set to open a 261-cabin hotel in Manchester, on the corner of Deansgate and John Dalton Street.   

OTHER LEISURE:

Per Sky, Inflexion Private Equity has hired advisers from Clearwater International to launch an auction of Goals Soccer Centres. City sources said on Thursday that a deal could value Goals at about £200m.    

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 0.1% after a 7-2 vote. This will come as a relief to many – but it may only be a postponement of higher rates. The Bank has also released its quarterly Monetary Policy Report saying that inflation will rise more sharply than previously expected. It has been saying for some time that inflation is transitory – but it appears that the definition of ‘transitory’ actually means is shifting.

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Sterling fell on the back of the above news. The Bank has said that higher interest rates will be needed in due course. It says it will raise interest rates in “coming months” in response to high inflation.

The SMMT has reported that the registration of new cars in October was at its lowest level in thirty years. Some 106,265 new cars were registered in October, down 24.6 per cent on the same month last year. ‘The current performance reflects the challenging supply constraints, with the industry battling against semiconductor shortages and increasingly strong economic headwinds as inflation rises, taxes increase and consumer confidence has weakened.’ Electric vehicles bucked the trend.

Markit has reported its October Construction PMI. The number came in at a better than expected 54.6, up from 52.6 in September.

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Sterling fell against the dollar yesterday after the Bank of England failed to raise rates. It rose slightly against the Euro & is currently $1.349 and €1.1676. Oil lower at $80.37. UK 10yr gilt yield fell sharply on the above by 13bps to 0.94%. Markets mixed yesterday with London set open down around 15pts.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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