The consumer, inflation, Covid, WFH, Yo! Sushi, DPEU, Playtech & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Ah, it’s Monday.

And, as there are no Bank Holidays till Christmas, it’s definitely a workday and that made me ponder, if your eyes flicker open before your alarm has gone off, what’s the worst time for this to happen?

Because, if you’ve got an hour or more to go, it’s quite a cosy feeling to know that you can roll over and grab a few more zeds.

And, even if you decide you need the loo and / or would like a drink of water, it’s still worth it whilst, at the other extreme, if it’s only a minute till your alarm cracks the sky, there’s no harm done and you might as well get up anyway.

So, is 16 minutes the absolutely worst time?

You can’t really get any more sleep and, if you need the loo or have got the upcoming day’s events going through your head, it’s game over and you’re going to be the absolute loser of 16 minute’s sleep.

Yes, 16 minutes, that’s the pivot point and, whilst we ponder that a bit further, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The Consumer:

To date, demand coming out of lockdowns has not been the issue it could have been. However, there are some developments and the Sunday Times reports that Britons are refusing to spend. It quotes one restaurant contact as saying that ‘everybody is super cautious — there’s lots of uncertainty.’ The restaurateur says ‘I don’t think people are celebrating anything at the moment.’ The Times goes on to say that savings are proving difficult to dislodge as consumer hedge their bets.

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The Resolution Foundation has reported that Budget help for poorer families to offset the loss from a £20 cut in universal credit will not plug the gap. It says that some 3.6 million families will still remain worse off.

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Contrary to comments made in the Sunday Times (mentioned above), the Morning Advertiser quotes one operator, Frisco Group MD Heath Ball, as saying that ‘consumers are likely to spend more than previous years this Christmas, due to missing out on eating and drinking in hospitality last year.’ Mr Ball maintains that ‘revenge spending’ will be a big deal. He tells the MA ‘people are going to be buying better, so wine lists separately, it’s good opportunity. Just put your prices up right now. I don’t think people will care.’

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Inflation:

Wholesale dairy products supplier Allan Reeder has written to corporate customers saying that ‘in light of the current situation with regards to raw material, transport and the general well publicised shortages within our industry in general, we are unfortunately going to have to increase pricing as follows from Monday 22nd November 2021.’ It then mentions a 20% hike in whole milk and skimmed milk prices, alongside similar 20% increases in the prices of salted and unsalted butter.

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Covid:

Some home and evidence that infection rates in the UK could be topping out (again). The NIESR is of a similar opinion when it says ‘the R number remains below 1 in all UK nations and English regions except the North East.’ It says there could be a lag in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. It says ‘hospital admissions are forecast to increase modestly in the coming weeks whilst deaths remain in the range they are currently despite the uptick in new cases observed through October.’

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Supply issues.

Prestige Purchasing’s David Read has told the MCA’s Restaurant Conference that the UK supply chain will not return to normal until next Autumn.

Working from Home.

Property advisors Avison Young have said, re its property market, that ‘London’s recovery trajectory continued during the third quarter, building on the momentum generated during the first half of 2021.’ It says space is letting and transaction volumes have picked up’ It says ‘a third consecutive increase in the amount of space let indicates that post-pandemic return-to-work and occupation strategies are being implemented by London’s occupier base.’

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Technology. Access Hospitality has released four e-books highlighting customer opinion about technology in the sector to help guide operations directors in decision making. It says ‘after an extended period of uncertainty, hospitality is rebuilding and preparing to lead economic recovery and growth in the UK. Technology is playing an increasingly important role in the plans of many operations so now is a good time to step back for a moment and check that business development and customer sentiment are aligned with each other.’

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KAM Media maintains that service levels remain critically important in sourcing and retaining customers – but it says that cleanliness standards are even more critical.

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End of furlough. Company Rescue looks at the impact of the end of the furlough scheme (not just in the hospitality industry) and says that some 34% of respondents are intending to let staff go either now or shortly. Around 58% of respondents said they were not going to cut staff and 8% said they were looking for larger numbers.

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

The Sunday Times reports that the company behind the sushi chain Yo! has halted plans for a £750 million stock market listing ‘amid growing unease among investors’. It reports ‘Snowfox Group, which controls Yo! along with brands such as Bento and Taiko, had appointed bankers at Numis to advise on a flotation, which was expected imminently. But heightened market volatility has put the brakes on its plans.’ Snowfox is majority owned by Mayfair Equity Partners.

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DPEU this morning reports on its assurances to ‘shareholders that it would seek to address greater minority shareholder protection as a matter of priority.’

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In the US, Starbucks workers who have been attempting to unionise have filed a federal complaint in Buffalo, New York, alleging that there has been company ‘interference’ in the unionisation process.

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In the US, McDonald’s experienced a 2% increase in commodities costs through the first nine months of the year and expects those costs to grow up to 4%. The fast food chain also said it faced difficulties procuring kitchen equipment.

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Per Big Hospitality, Azumi, owner of Zuma and Roka, is recruiting staff in  Leeds, Middlesbrough and Newcastle later this month.

The MA reports that Gloucester Brewery and Lister’s Brewery have both launched crowdfunding campaigns on Crowdcube. Gloucester Brewery aims to raise £500k, and Lister’s Brewery has already achieved its £100k target.

In the US, Shake Shack expects to develop 45 to 50 company-operated restaurants in the U.S. in 2022, with 10 of these set to have drive-thrus.

The Sunday Times reports that Corbin & King is seeking a new financial backer after a disagreement with current majority owner, Thailand-based Minor Hotels.

CGA’s Karl Chessel says that the top four developments in the restaurant industry are localism, omnichannels, sustainability and experience. Most of these factors have been driven by the impact of the covid pandemic.

The UK grape harvest has been called challenging for growers, with reports indicating difficult ripening conditions, reduced yields, and a shortage of workers.

The ONS reports that the majority of employees who were still on the Government’s furlough scheme when it closed at the end of September have returned to their jobs. Around 65% of these employees returned to work on the same hours that they had pre pandemic, with only 16% going back with reduced hours.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

US restrictions of travellers arriving from the UK and Europe have been lifted from today, * Nov, after more than 600 days. There are reportedly some 730 flights scheduled between Heathrow and New York JFK this month, making it the busiest route from the UK.

Expedia CEO Peter Kern signalled his increasing confidence in “continued recovery” from the pandemic, saying ‘With early positive signs in Q4 and many countries announcing new openings to international travellers, we are feeling increasingly confident about a continued recovery.’

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Per Travel Weekly, Norwegian Cruise Line president and CEO Harry Sommer said ‘I would guess that we’ll be at about 80% normal by January. Of course, 80% would probably make it the best month we’ve had in the pandemic…I would hope that by the time we get to March will be closer to 100%.’

STR reports US hotel occupancy down to 58.9% for the week ending October 30, down from 63.9% the previous week. Performance overall matched closely with the same week in 2010, which was the last time Halloween fell on a Sunday.

Uber Technologies reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis since it launched, reporting EBITDA of $8m compared to a loss of $625m the year prior. Uber forecast an adjusted profit of $25 million to $75 million for the last quarter of 2021.  

OTHER LEISURE:

Netflix has reportedly entered the smartphone gaming market.

Gopher Investments is weighing a rival bid for London-listed gambling group Playtech reports Sky News. Sky says ‘Gopher Investments is working with bankers at Rothschild on an offer that would trump a recommended bid announced last month from Aristocrat Leisure, an Australian company.’

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Pinterest reported total revenue up 43% to $633 million, above analysts’ average estimate of $630.9 million. Shares of the company rose 1.4% after the bell on Thursday.

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Peloton CEO John Foley’s net worth tumbled $400 million late Thursday after the fitness company said it expects to bring in less revenue next fiscal year. Shares fell by 24% in after-hours trading as Peloton reported a net loss of $376 million for the three-month period that ended on September 30.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey has rebuffed claims that he ‘bottled it’ on the MPC’s interest rate call last Thursday. He has also denied that he (or the Bank) is an ‘unreliable boyfriend’ and refutes claims that the Bank’s reputation has been damaged by poor signalling and subsequent inaction.

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The US added 531,000 jobs in October, more than expected. The rate of unemployment fell slightly to 4.6%. The 4.9% growth in average earnings over the last year remains ahead of inflation at 4.4%.

The Halifax on Friday reported that annual house price inflation picked up to 8.1% in the year to October, up from an annual rate of 7.4% the month before. It says ‘one of the key drivers of activity in the housing market over the past 18 months has been the race for space, with buyers seeking larger properties, often further from urban centres.’

Sterling a little weaker at $1.349 and €1.166. Oil markedly higher at $80.37. UK 10yr gilt yield sharply lower again on delayed interest rate expectations at 0.84%. World markets broadly better on Friday but Far East lower in Monday trading and London set to open around 4pts lower.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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